2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Rams 17, Bears 7
Two of the better pass defenses in the NFL had a game…with each team also possessing failing offenses, and…surprise!! It was a low scoring, dull affair. Also, the one with kicker problems missed two field goals to further ensure the low scoring affair.
Not a lot you can say here. Both offenses are dreadful, blame whatever you want…the QBs, the coaches, the O-Lines. We’ll get nowhere debating it. It is what it is. These are not playoff teams or Super Bowl threats. The Rams have some hope, some indicators that they might have enough horsepower to get it together to make the playoffs…but, in reality, this game was a sad reminder of teams that were arguably #1-2 best in the league at certain points last year – and a year later they are becoming a punchline. The NFL is difficult. The NFL is more 25 mediocre teams (the Patriots and 5-7 hopeless teams otherwise) randomly having good and bad schedules and more and less injury issues year-to-year and things break whatever way.
The Rams almost won the Super Bowl last year. The Bears were good enough to win a Super Bowl last year. This year…everything is wrong and needs changing. How can that be?
The Rams are now 6-4, and they will get their heads taken off by the Ravens on MNF this week and fall to 6-5. They would then need to win four of their last 5 games to get to 10 wins to have a wild card prayer. They are not winning four of those next 5 give at DAL, at SF, SEA and 2x with Arizona. The Rams’ season is effectively over…they just haven’t been informed of it.
The Bears are now 4-6 and have been done…losers of five of their last 6 games. They might win two in-a-row ahead (NYG, @DET) to get to 6-6 and get people talking again…but they could lose their last four in-a-row (DAL, @GB, KC, @MIN) to end it. The Bears will win 6 games top this season. Maybe 7 if lucky. No way they can get to .500 at season’s end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Before I get to the weekly chronicles of Mitch Trubisky… The biggest note I have from this game – I sense Matt Nagy may, I emphasize MAY, have reached his limit with David Montgomery (14-31-0, 1-19-0/3).
Montgomery didn’t start, but that’s not totally uncommon…Tarik Cohen (9-39-0, 5-35-1/6) tends to start the first play and then Montgomery in 80% of the rest of the snaps. This week, Montgomery not in until 3rd-down on the first series, a little odd. Most first plays of the series throughout the game, which used to be so obvious Montgomery runs, were anything but that in this game (Matt Nagy, you must read my work and stopped being so obvious every 1st-play? Thanks! And, FYI…you’re killing your team with your offense and ruining several player’s career. Fix it, ASAP).
Cohen played 45 snaps to Montgomery’s 35…that’s a first, too.
There are also signs Nagy’s just trying to hide his Montgomery love in a different form. DM did take NINE 1st-down carries in the game…just not always the very first play of the drive, like usual. The yardage on Montgomery’s NINE 1st-down carries in this game: 4-3-1-1-1-5-0-4-4. More of the same from him…nothing runs putting a struggling offense in the hole on 2nd and 3rd-downs.
The Giants in Week 12…a recipe for a heavy Montgomery run game, BUT if he struggles AGAIN – we might be reaching the breaking point where Nagy stops the Montgomery madness.
Hey, maybe the RB who has had nice moments in the preseason…the one you just called up…maybe he could provide some punch? Worth a look? Nope, Ryan Nall…zero carries in the game.
I’m seeing more and more Cohen playing more snaps and with more purposeful touches…it might be Cohen to the rescue these two upcoming winnable games. Must wins to try to stop the bleeding for Nagy.
-- Mitch Trubisky (24-43 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looked solid enough in this game, against a good Rams pass defense. He wasn’t great, he wasn’t bad. At least two 3rd-down conversions were dropped by WRs (and the Bears lead the league in dropped passes…which must be Trubisky’s fault somehow). His INT was a tipped pass off a WR’s hand right to a DB.
Trubisky led a couple scoring drives early in this game, including the very first drive of the game…all of which ended in missed field goals. Trubisky is the worst kicker in the league, costing the Bears more pain…only Trubisky could be such a bad kicker.
I just want to note three Trubisky thoughts here…
1) Trubisky is a great runner of the ball…as fast as Deshaun Watson with 40+ more pounds on him. But Mitch ran just 1 time this game…which is a running theme this season – he’s not running like he was last year.
He could run and save his career/public opinion right now…but he isn’t. Which means he’s scared or an idiot. Either way…not good. It’s possible he’s also ‘checked out’ and done with football.
2) Trubisky was pulled in the last few minutes of the game here. There was some scuttlebutt about Trubisky’s hip, but I don’t buy it. You take a guy with dying confidence and then pull him on a national TV game – if it wasn’t already over, now it is. I’m sure he’ll start a few more games, but it is over. They should just throw in the towel now and get it over with.
Also, they showed Nagy hugging Trubisky close on the sidelines as he was informing him that he was being pulled for the final drive with 3+ minutes left. Nagy has babied Trubisky for two years like no other coach-to-QB I’ve ever seen. Nagy wants to be the ‘cool dad’ when Trubisky needs ‘tough dad’. Trubisky, we have to assume, wants to be babied or we’d see something different.
Baker Mayfield probably would’ve pulled away and then punched Nagy in the mouth.
Nagy is the kind of guy that babies his players, especially QBs. Wants to be friends with them. All the cool gadget plays and high fives…the ‘coolest’, toughest team in the league in 2018 is now a giant pushover in 2019. My two cents: The ‘gruff’ Vic Fangio is no longer there to install the edge needed. Chuck Pagano and Matt Nagy are the same guy…nice guys. It’s good to have good cop/bad cop for players…but the Bears are now good cop/good cop. It’s not working in a violent sport.
3) It’s beyond OVER with Trubisky in the NFL and for fantasy. We can do an autopsy later on the reasons. I could be terrible at scouting, because I thought he was a five-tool star to thrive (and we saw glimpses of ‘it’ last season). There could be some other issue bring the downfall, or Trubisky just isn’t it. Whatever it is – I’m smart/dumb enough to know there is no hope from here. Trubisky is the kind of person who will accept his fate and go away…bullied out of the league. It’s not fair, but it’s also…it is what it is. The Navy Seal tryouts are not meant to nurture people into it…it’s to weed out all the pretenders to get to the elite few of the elite.
Trubisky does not have the mental makeup to be the elite, from what I see, and he’s easy to bully, and thus he is being bullied by the press. Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield wouldn’t stand for it.
It could’ve gone differently for Trubisky, but it does not matter now. Leave the dying body and go on without him.
-- Jared Goff (11-18 for 173 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) will be the next media bully attempt, I think. And Sean McVay has some Matt Nagy in him (‘cool dad’ coach)…so I’m a touch worried, but Goff is a tougher persona behind a look like he isn’t.
Also note, this was a bad stat line from Goff…which is happening more and more, but note a few things…
1) The Bears pass defense is stingy.
2) No Cooks or Woods.
3) A 40+ yard TD pass ruled a TD, then reversed a yard short…because there is a cosmic law for that to happen so Todd Gurley can have a career of 1-yard TDs off Goff near-TDs. Also, a 51-yard TD that was beautiful…called back for illegal formation.
4) People will be dropping Goff in some leagues, which is fine…but note that Week 13 at Arizona he will throw for 300+ and 3-4 TDs – just in time for some folks’ first playoff game.
Goff v. ARI or Kyler v. LAR…it might be Goff. Did you see what sad Jimmy G. did to Arizona the last few weeks?
-- Allen Robinson (4-15-0/6)…this is the kind of stat line that is another example of what Jalen Ramsey does…and is maybe the one CB you sit even the best WRs against in must-win situations.
Week 12: Marquise Brown?
Week 13: Christian Kirk
Week 14: Tyler Lockett
Week 15: Amari Cooper
Week 16: SF? Emmanuel Sanders?
-- Cooper Kupp (3-53-0/3) had one TD in his last 5 games.
4.0 rec., 56.0 yards, 0.20 TDs per game. A WR3-4 the past five games. Actually, the best WR in FF in Week 8 and a WR4-5 the rest of the time.
Will it change? Not against Baltimore this week, but against Arizona Week 13 it will.
Kupp needs Woods-Cooks back for starters.
-- Can you trust either of these DSTs ahead?
Both are top 10 NFL defense in many metrics.
The Bears look good Weeks 12-13…NYG and @DET. Then DAL-@GB-KC Weeks 14-16, you run. If the Bears lose to NYG, the whole mood of the team/the wheels could come off.
The Rams are in a better place to have to ‘try’ and are improving as we go with Jalen Ramsey…but if they get throttled by Baltimore this week…it might be ‘over’.
Do you want to bet heavy on the Rams against the upcoming schedule of: Lamar-Kyler-Russell-Dak-SF Weeks 12-16?
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Gurley
10 = M Brown
03 = Henderson (McVay has no interest here…it seems)
53 = Kupp
51 = J Reyn
20 = Mk Thomas
45 = Cohen
35 = Montgomery
03 = Nall
41 = Higbee
37 = Mundt
14 = Everett