2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Saints 34, Bucs 17
There’s not much to take away from this game at all. The biggest thing, overview-wise, might be that despite a solid 34-17 victory — the Saints, to me, didn’t look that great…again…lately. They got walloped by Atlanta last week and the Bucs gave them this game right away and the Saints tried to let them back in, but...you know...Jameis Winston is going to return the favor. Saints win but not impressively to me.
It was 20-0 before you knew it and the Winston picks were all ricochets off WR’s hands and into defenders awaiting arms. Winston flirted with danger all game, as he does, so the picks were gonna happen either way, but it was an unlucky start for TB turned Saints big, quick lead and then just a muddle to the finish.
It was 27-17 NO in the 4th-quarter with TB trying to cut it to a one score game and then Winston sailed a pick six and...ball game.
The Saints should win 11 games and take the NFC South easily but watch out for them possibly getting upset this week by Carolina and then if Atlanta gets them then all hell breaks loose. Probably not going to happen that way, but let’s see if the Panthers can make this interesting Week 12.
The Bucs season is long since lost, they may get to 4-5 wins in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes...
— Let’s start with Jameis Winston (30-51 for 313 yards, 2 TD/4 INT), and I’m so sick of talking about him, but I’m stunned at watching the lengths Bruce Arians will go to defend him. Winston has not done anything wrong, ever, in Arians’ mind. You’d think…surely the Bucs are done with free agent to be Jameis? Honestly, I think they’ll sign him to a new deal to show you just how totally delusional NFL coaches and GMs are.
Arians is beyond arrogant, and it’s a hit to his ego that Winston isn’t league MVP…so, he’ll sign him to a 5-year, $80M deal just to have more chances to ‘whisper’ to him.
It ain’t gonna work.
You think the management and media in football are geniuses but it’s a nonstop comedy of errors, like Jameis Winston circa 2019, that is so plain to us common football fan folk -- that we actually start wondering if we’re the problem/if we’re making the mistakes.
It is not us…we’re not the problem.
The sad part is you are starting to see the Tampa Bay players affected. When Winston threw an INT (his 4th of the game) in the end zone near the end of the game, the players in camera shot just shrugged their shoulders, shook their heads, and slowly walked back to the sidelines like they had had it. They’ve seen this too many times. And yet the Bucs are about to make it the expensive centerpiece of the franchise.
— This game was out of hand so fast that TB just didn’t try to run the ball...which they can’t anyway but still...Ronald Jones (4-13-0, 2-1-0/4) is a lead RB for this team and saw 4 carries and 2 catches in a game.
Again, this after a week we heard all about how much they were going use RoJo in the passing game.
— Man, did Jared Cook (2-33-1/2) look good here...in his two whole targets. A wonderful catch and run up the middle for 30 yards and then a leaping/falling TD catch on an alley oop.
Just two targets all game.
If you’re not Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara, you do not really matter all that much on this offense.
I’m not saying that as a complaint, just an axiom we need to tattoo on our arms to remember for fantasy — you think Latavius Murray (10-27-0, 2-5-0/3) might be a sweet play vs. CAR this week if the Saints get up big — likely will not happen. Latavius only matters if Kamara is out/hurt.
— O.J. Howard (0-0-0/1) had a little simple dump pass that he caught and tried to pull down and run...but the ball slipped around his body and he ended up getting hit and that forced the ball up for grabs and right to the Saints for an early game pick.
I’m not sure we saw OJH at all the rest of the game.
Jameis Winston can make every mistake in the book and he’s fine but if OJH makes any mistake -- he’s done. Makes sense.
Cameron Brate (10-73-0/14) is Winston’s preferred TE anyway, speaking of Winton’s terrible decision making.
I assume Brate will see more time ahead of OJH as Howard has already been at odds with Arians. I expect Howard to be traded this offseason to NE, not just a speculation idea. The Patriots wanted it before, but they should get it this offseason as I’m sure OJ will tell TB he’s done with them and will never re-sign there after the way he’s been treated this year.
He’s a nice stash dynasty stash I’ll be adding to the list now. He can’t possibly be back in Tampa Bay next season/2020. For sure not there in 2021, unless Arians quits this offseason (unlikely with the checks he can cash).
— I’ll give TB credit on rookie UDFA WR Scotty Miller (4-71-0/6)…at least they are using their speedy rookie slot WR as a potential weapon. Arizona has no idea what to do with Andy Isabella.
Miller had a 40+ yard TD here but landed just short on diving for the goal line.
You want to get excited about this weapon (Miller), but he gets in line behind Evans-Godwin in the passing game. However, the more they have to throw the more crumbs/targets he may get.
— The Saints-DST is not the same without Marcus Lattimore. Thus this DST is not an obvious play for Week 12 v CAR no matter how bad Kyle Allen is playing.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Brate
16 = OJ Howard
04 = Tanner Hudson
36 = Perriman
35 = Scotty Miller
29 = Ogunbowale
20 = Ron Jones
12 = Barber
42 = Kamara
27 = Latavius