2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Vikings 27, Broncos 23
Denver led 20-0 and were driving into the red zone with a minute before halftime. A field goal would be a killer 23-point lead, a TD would’ve ended Minnesota pretty much…in theory.
Denver was wonderful for the first 29 minutes of the game, and then Brandon Allen threw a pick near the goal line and the Vikings held the lead to ‘just’ 20-0 at the half. Minnesota got the ball to open up the 2nd-half, and drove down methodically for a TD, cutting the lead to 20-7 and then the entire dynamic of the game changed.
Eventually, the Vikings would pull back into the lead…but Denver drove down to the 4-yard line with 1st & goal to go with 0:10 remaining, down by 4 points. Three near-miss TD passes later…the Vikings survived/pulled off a minor miracle.
Minnesota somewhat saves their NFC North title hopes with a win. They move to 8-3 and hit a BYE week, and we project them to finish with 11-12 wins and will defeat Green Bay Week 16 and that could give them the edge for the NFC North title. Green Bay is likely to win the tiebreaker if it comes down to it. Minnesota needs some help/needs Green Bay to fold some ahead. The Vikings will be an 11+ win wild card regardless or the NFC North winners.
Denver is best ‘bad team’ in the NFL. They are 3-7 and should be 6-4/5-5. What could’ve been. They’ve lost four games in the last minute either by their failed goal line or 2-point try conversions or the other team doing something good to win. Hard to project Denver to the finish because Drew Lock may appear and Dwayne Haskins this all up. For those with Sutton-Fant…your worst nightmare is a Drew Lock Weeks 13-16 start.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first… This was a stunning game by Courtland Sutton (5-113-0/9, 2-10-0, 1/1 for 38 yards passing).
1) He’s getting deep balls thrown to him in double coverage and he just yanks them away/hauls it in. He had two surreal catches in this game. He is a future WR1 even with bad QB play (just not Drew Lock bad, we need Brandon Allen level passers or better).
I believed, in 2018, he was the best WR prospect I’d ever scouted.
2) Yes, he was 1-1 for passing for a 38-yard (lucky) completion. The following play after that completed pass…he had another RPO option and was about to throw but didn’t.
3) What he did do was run the ball, instead of passing it. Sutton also had a goal line sweep run but only got a yard from 7-yards away. He’s catching…passing…and running for Denver in games.
4) 1st play of the game was a 75-yard bomb he had Xavier Rhodes beat by 5+ yards but Allen overthrew him.
5) Had two other throws to him in the end zone…one for 30+ yards that he got dragged to the earth for a P.I. by Rhodes. The other a short-range miss.
Sutton flirted with a 7+ catch, 200+ yard, 2-3 TD game here.
6) Sutton is a WR1 candidate for 2019 with any plausible QB play at all.
7) Denver has the most innovative offensive play calling and forward-thinking in the entire league. Oakland has the smartest play calling. Baltimore has the most dominant offense. Denver is the most clever, they just don’t have a real QB/O-Line to make it hum.
-- Sutton is rising in this offense, but #2 riser is Noah Fant (4-60-0/10, 2 carries, -7 yards). Great routes/plays run for him now. Running plays happened here. A just missed 30-yard TD bomb. The final two throws to win the game from 4 yards away was to Fant and Fant.
He’s a top 5 TE1 talent…dragged to fringe TE1 by the QB play.
Your new ‘upside’, not-obvious TE every week…Noah Fant.
-- Phillip Lindsay (16-67-0, 2-8-0/2) was proclaimed the new lead RB…no more 50/50 with Royce Freeman (8-31-0, 1-14-0/1). You can have hope with Lindsay every week in this role.
-- Kirk Cousins (29-35 for 319 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) won this game for Minnesota and should be squarely in the MVP discussions…but he won’t be – or that would be admitting THEIR (the analyst community) mistake from 7 weeks ago when Cousins had to go/be benched and was declared a bust.
THEY just missed on that call.
16 TDs/1 INT in his last 6 games with three 300+ yard passing efforts…and half the games without Adam Thielen.
-- When did Kyle Rudolph (5-67-1/5) decide to be good again?
4.0 rec. (4.8 targets), 35.8 yards, 1.0 TDs per game = Rudolph’s last 5 games
1.5 rec. (1.8 targets), 12.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Rudolph’s first 5 games
He’s the #3 TE in non-PPR and PPR PPG since week 7.
-- This was supposed to be a favorable matchup for the Minnesota-DST…and Denver took it to them most of the game. This DST has been a sinking ship for weeks.
@SEA, DET, @LAC, GB the next 4 weeks…I don’t know that you can trust them at all, you haven’t been able to for a while.
-- Five sacks in this game for the Denver-DST. 19 sacks their last 5 games after a league low five sacks their first 5 games. This defense is getting better despite missing a top CB all season and losing Bradley Chubb.
Fangio is going to turn this into a defensive monster next year, you watch.
Denver is a QB away from being ‘that team’ in 2020. I will be taking lottery ticker positions in Denver to go to the Super Bowl and win the AFC West in 2020 when the early, favorable odds hit…hoping they do something at QB (like trade for Foles or sign a solid veteran).
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Rudolph
51 = Irv Smith
51 = Lindsay
23 = R Freeman
05 = Booker