2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – 49ers 37, Packers 8
There’s nothing elaborate for me to write about this game. The 49ers took it to the Packers and Green Bay rolled over and got run over. The Packers are no match for the 49ers, and the ‘we have a chance because we have Aaron Rodgers’ days are long since past.
Green Bay is now 8-3 and have a very nice schedule ahead that will push them into the playoffs and potentially a division title. We see the Packers winning their next three games (@NYG, WAS, CHI) and heading to Week 16 at 11-3 going to Minnesota to face a 10-11 win Vikings team for the NFC North crown. A win by the Packers seals things up, a loss opens up tiebreakers to the end with the Vikings. In the end, we see 11-3 GB losing at Minnesota but then winning at Detroit Week 17 to go 12-4 and having a tiebreaker edge over Minnesota for the NFC North title. If Minnesota upsets Seattle this week, then that Week 16 will be for all the NFC North marbles.
Key win for the 49ers to stay ahead of Seattle by a game, and dispatch Green Bay as any threat to them for seeding. The 49ers have two difficult games ahead…@BAL, @NO. I think they split those and go to Week 17 at 13-2 to face 12-3 Seattle for the NFC West title and the #1 seed. That will be quite a game.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We all weren’t sure if George Kittle (6-129-1/6) was going to play this game until late because of his bone bruise from weeks ago. Then we heard he was working through a broken bone in his ankle.
Then he has 6 catches for 129 yards and a TD and looked great! What an amazing player. Is he now the #1 tight end for fantasy in 2020 in your mind?
-- The Aaron Rodgers (20-33 for 104 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) decline continues…
I don’t think it his issue, personally. I think it is the weapons around him and mostly a terrible playbook/plan by Matt LaFleur. Whatever it is…he’s had like two monster game and a bunch of QB2 work otherwise.
YTD, Rodgers is the #11 QB in fantasy.
The last three weeks, Rodgers has all of 2 TDs total…and all games under 240 yards, with two games under 170 yards passing.
He can get right the next two weeks…@NYG, WAS.
-- Deebo Samuel (2-50-1/2) came into this game with a shoulder injury and a ‘questionable’ tag. He scored well but you see the two targets only, but consider this game got out of hand and Samuel wasn’t needed much and they pulled back/away on him to keep him from taking any undue hits.
What would be missed by his performance this week – he has become ‘the guy’ for Garoppolo…his #1 WR, and the two of them have looked great since that MNF game against Seattle. Deebo has had his coming out party. He’s arrived. The two targets he caught here…wonderful work. Excellent pitch & catch connection. It’s just the 49ers are not a super-explosive offense for racking receiving numbers with WRs yet…but Deebo will be their leader from here on in. He looks terrific.
Rookie WR’s Deebo or A.J. Brown? For the NFL, Deebo looks much better, much more accomplished as a WR.
For fantasy the next 3-4 weeks, I think it might be A.J. Brown with the schedule ahead…or at least in non-PPR. PPR Samuel is right there.
-- Tevin Coleman (11-39-1, 2-10-0/4) has rushed for 40 yards of fewer in a game his last 3 games. All games with Matt Breida hurt/out. Really, minus his 3 TD game against Carolina…it’s been a pretty mediocre season for Coleman. The 49ers backfield has been impossible to figure out and a pretty fruitless endeavor this season.
-- Allen Lazard (1-21-0, 1-7-0/2) got a sweep jet sweep for 21 yards, and then never touched the ball again until Rodgers was pulled for Tim Boyle late.
That’s on Aaron Rodgers. You can’t tell me Lazard wasn’t open to get the ball to in order to try to make plays…at least throw him jump balls against this rough defense. Nothing else was working.
Lazard’s value continues to fade away for the future…if Rodgers is not going to try to use him when he plays 66% of the snaps/3rd-most among WRs here…then what are we doing?
-- Would you rather have the 49ers or Packers’ defense this rest of the season?
The 49ers are great, BUT they face Lamar and Brees the next two weeks. Then Ryan-Goff are great for them Weeks 15-16.
The Packers are not as great, BUT they face Dan Jones-Haskins-Trubisky the next three games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = Tevin C
14 = Mostert
05 = Wilson
59 = Adams
54 = Allison
52 = Lazard