2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Bears 19, Giants 14
It’s fallen to this for the Bears…
A game at home, against a rookie QB, and your team is a laughingstock that needs a ‘get right’ game…and against a ‘get right’ against opponent – you’re down 7-3 at the half, and it was only that close because the Giants kept missing field goals. The Bears have to be the single most dead team in the NFL in 2019…they are very lucky to have five wins instead of the two they should have. This is very close to one of the worst season-to-season collapses in recent NFL history (and yet the coach will get no blame outside of Chicago).
Down 7-3 at the half, the Bears rally for a 16-point 3rd-quarter and take a 19-7 lead…a spurt that included going for a two-point conversion, getting it, but reversed by penalty so lining up for an extra point instead, and missing it. The Bears’ season in a nutshell. The Bears couldn’t keep the 3rd-quarter momentum and let the Giants back in and held off the Giants last chance drive with about 2:00 left to stumble to a ‘victory’. It wasn’t pretty for the Bears…just like this season and the upcoming offseason will not be.
The Bears are 5-6 and could win out to go 10-6 and be a playoff hopeful…but…hold on, I have to stop laughing/coughing to finish typing…we know that won’t happen. Six wins tops for this sad state of affairs team.
The Giants are now 2-9 and really are lucky they are not in the 0-1 win area right now. They have a game hosting Miami and at Washington Weeks 15-16 to try to find a third win. If the Bengals can win this week…the Giants are back in the hunt for the #1 pick, to butcher. They’ll likely end up 3-13 and wear out Saquon Barkley more for no reason, and then fire Pat Shurmur in the end. Shurmur needs a win streak to save his job -- so he’ll force Saquon work without pause because he’s desperate…if I were the Giants’ GM, I’d shut Barkley down to keep him away from Shurmur. It’s possible they do that for Weeks 15-17. Get your Wayne Gallman lottery tickets…I guess?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m a Mitch Trubisky (25-41 for 278 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs, 7-18-1) supporter. I think there is a raw talent there to be groomed. I’m usually defending him to some degree week-to-week, but this was the worst game I’ve seen Trubisky play in his career, including his rookie season.
For the first time, I noticed multiple ‘happy feet’ moments and just throwing passes into a crowd hoping for something to go right for him. My professional opinion is that he’s not a strong enough willed person for his public/media onslaught, and I’m not sure how many could shake them off if they were in his shoes either…and because he has full rabbit ears now, he’s pressing and second-guessing in the nanoseconds of decision-making and when that happens – it’s about over. Hard to come back from the brink when no one is in your corner.
It’s amazing that a year prior, he was rolling along just fine. A nice statistical season and great win-loss season. Less than a year later, he’s turned to mud. Is it because of Trubisky or Nagy or both or…? It doesn’t matter now. Turn out the lights.
The Bears have to deal him away this offseason. The more they hold onto him, the more ridicule they’ll get. They can buy temporary goodwill by removing him from the picture. Two interesting spots for him to go for pennies on the dollar…
1) Buffalo to backup Josh Allen. Similar QBs. Big guys, strong arms, very mobile. A perfect spot for him to be a #2 QB and maybe if forced into action he can win over the blue-collar fans with gritty, low pressure backup play.
You may not like Trubisky, but most of the backup QBs in the NFL are a joke. Trubisky has experienced NFL success and is a five-tool prospect. He has value.
2) Tampa Bay to backup (assumed) newly signed Jameis Winston. Trubisky can be the deep ball thrower for Arians, who he can whisper to and try to fix. Backing up Winston is a ticket to a second lease on life.
-- Saquon Barkley’s (17-59-0, 2-1-0/3) fall from grace continues…
He is the #13 PPR (#12 full season), #19 non-PPR (#18 full season) RB in PPG since his return from injury Week 7 this season.
Barkley was the clear #1 overall pick in redrafts, and dynasty, in 2019…what happened?
You can’t say, “Well, his offensive line!” How do you reconcile how good Christian McCaffrey is with a so-so O-Line and EVERYONE knowing he’s getting the ball? How do you explain Leonard Fournette 2019 with a terrible O-Line? Or Derrick Henry in 2019?
Could it just be we all overrated Barkley? He gets all the opportunity and doesn’t deliver like McCaffrey-Elliott-Fournette-Henry.
You thought I was crazy this preseason saying that Fournette-Henry would be my RB1s at RB2 redraft prices. Who’s laughing now?
Who’s crying now? Those that said, planning for their redraft -- “Fournette is always hurt, I can’t trust him.”
The lesson? RBs are super-important, they really are, not being sarcastic…there’s only a few workhorses left and they are very valuable, BUT you don’t have to take RBs with the first picks in a redraft because there are plenty out there on a discount of you scout them well (also Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones were not going all that highly in redrafts either) and the top guys always seem to get hurt, like Fournette has before or Barkley this year.
-- For what it is worth, Sterling Shepard (5-15-0/9) looked back to normal. He was moving around quickly and looked fresh/refreshed. Hopefully, he can continue on in his career concussion free ahead.
With Golden Tate out this week, if that happens, might be a decent PPR week for Shepard.
-- Allen Robinson (6-131-1/10) is so, so brilliant. He had quite a game here. Had a 60+ yard play called back and another near-miss TD or he would have had an awesome FF event.
He is immune to the Trubisky fails, because Trubisky is throwing to ARob pretty much every time he can…it’s the one guy he can count on.
-- Tarik Cohen’s (6-25-0, 7-29-0/9) last three games (games in which I sense the Bears are giving up/throttling back a little on failing David Montgomery)…
6.0 carries (averaged about 3.0 carries all season prior), 5.3 rec. (6.3 targets), 55.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game…9.5 non-PPR, 14.8 PPR PPG in that span.
He’s the #13 PPR RB in fantasy since Week 10. His snap counts and touches are rising…so are his output numbers, as Montgomery’s continues to fall.
-- Anthony Miller’s (6-77-0/9) averages the last two games: 6.0 rec. (10.0 targets), 65.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
Taylor Gabriel is missing Week 13 and Detroit is very ‘throw-on-able’.
Should be another solid+ week for Miller in PPR, also considering Darius Slay will likely shadow Allen Robinson.
-- Kaden Smith (5-15-1/9) was quite the slow-moving freight in this game. As expected -- good hands, too slow to really matter. Did get a nice counter play, short TD pass reception. Not much exciting here week-to-week.
-- Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen are hurt, and now Ben Braunecker is out. The Bears will roll with J.P. Holtz (0-0-0/0) and the more FF-interesting Princeton rookie UDFA TE/WR Jesper Horsted (1-4-0/1).
Horsted is 6’3”+/230+ a 4.77 40-time (Pro Day). He looked pretty solid in the preseason. He was more WR in college but is transitioning to TE in the pros.
72 rec., 1,047 yards, 13 TDs in 2018.
92 rec., 1,226 yards, 14 TDs in 2017 in a higher functioning pass offense.
Good hands. Moves well for a TE. Interesting option, but the Bears has not pushed a TE prospect to any output at all this season. Hard to see Horsted making that leap here, but if one of he or Holtz does…it’s Horsted for FF.
I see him listed at TE in some fantasy leagues, and WR in others.
-- Giants rookie CB Corey Ballentine (9 tackles) was getting beaten in coverage more than a few times, but, man, was he out there giving 110% and trying to tackle everything that moved. Great energy and effort by Ballentine, who is becoming a 70%+ snap starter. He’s returning kicks as well. Might be a bit of a CB sleeper for IDP as the Giants defense finished weak to the finish…a lot of tackle opportunities.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Montgomery
42 = Cohen
54 = Braunecker
31 = Holtz
04 = Horsted
59 = Kaden Smith
11 = Simonson