2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Bills 20, Broncos 3
This was just a drubbing by the Buffalo Bills. Sure, the Bills keep beating losing record teams…but they are, perhaps, the toughest team in the NFL – they are not intimidated by any opponent. They are well-coached, well-disciplined, and built to play in Buffalo.
I’m not a Josh Allen fan but watching Brandon Allen try to throw into the wind and seeing the ball literally start sailing backwards on his throws downfield while Josh Allen whistled passes through the stiff gusts…I gained a new appreciation for this team. For it’s construct. It’s focus. It’s toughness. Josh Allen plays well within that…he runs the ball with abandon, and he can throw through weather. Sure, he’s a walking interception probability, but if Buffalo can give him a lead and not need him to win games for them – it works OK. The defense is as mentally and physically tough as any. It’s the team you DON’T want to play in the playoffs. I bet they give the Ravens a game in Week 14. I bet they sock Dallas in the jaw this week.
Denver is trying to be the Bills…that physically tough, well-coached, disciplined team but they could not match the toughness, talent, and will of Buffalo this game. Also, note… I watch all the games back during the week and seeing some of the empty stadiums some teams are playing in front of is jarring. Watching Buffalo, in the cold/wind here…there wasn’t an empty seat in that joint.
I’ve respected Buffalo all year, but not enough. They are 8-3, but really got screwed in their Patriots’ loss and played with the Browns but lost late. The Eagles are the only team that really beat them this year (Week 8). I think the Bills beat Dallas in national TV Thanksgiving and send a message…and thus rise up to 9-3, on their way to an 11-5 season and Sean McDermott a top 3 Coach of the Year candidate.
Denver falls to 3-8, as their season is slipping away. What might have been…that loss in Week 11 to Minnesota, after they were blowing them out the 1st-half and then had an epic collapse in the 2nd-half. That was the stake in Denver’s heart, and they haven’t yet recovered. The Broncos are 3-8…and should be a 5-6 win team right now, so many close loses last second. They will finish with 4 wins, 5 tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Devin Singletary (21-106-0, 1-8-0/2) was beautiful in this game. He is one of the most elusive runners in the NFL. He’s what everyone thought David Montgomery was. He’s so quick to shift gears, evade, and has terrific vision. I think Singletary is going to be a flat-out superstar RB1 in years to come. In this game…subtly masterful.
He still shares work with Frank Gore (15-65-0), to take some FF heat away. And when the Bills are winning, they don’t throw to the RBs as much…they reserve that more when they need to throw and chase an opponent, which they’ve rarely had to do this year. But Singletary is a great receiver on top of everything else.
I love Singletary more each tape I watch. He’s a fantasy starter for me each week as a strong RB2 with upside.
-- Courtland Sutton (1-27-0/8) caught a 27-yard pass early in the game, and I though…”OK, he’s fine vs. Tre’Davious White. This will be OK.”
That was his last catch of the game.
White was all over him, and Allen kept trying to force it but either White knocked it away…or, really, It was passes just being taken away by the wind. It was not good.
-- Vic Fangio watching Josh Allen throw through the win, and watching Brandon Allen fail into it…and he’s sitting there with his own Josh Allen in Drew Lock… I’m thinking Fangio is going to try Lock out after this Brandon Allen debacle of a game. It’s a bit unfair to Allen (it was windy, Buffalo has a great pass defense, and Denver stinks), but at this stage…they need to see what they have in Lock.
How will that move effect Sutton? Lock is a less precise thrower of up-for-grab passes to Sutton, but he can also rocket them to him. It might be a different version of the same results – Sutton is ‘the guy’ and they just force passes to him. Lock has comfort throwing the ball a lot from his college days, so in garbage time…Lock may look great and take Sutton with him for some decent FF results.
-- I recorded a spot for Chris Dibello’s (our handicapping group’s nickname SKOL) podcast Bet The Close last night (video on demand because we recorded it for his pod, but showed it live on our video platform) talking about the Thanksgiving games. He mentioned the Cole Beasley (6-76-1/9) upside for a revenge game this week v. Dallas. I don’t love Beasley or Josh Allen, so I didn’t necessarily embrace it…but it’s really something to consider for this week in fantasy if needed.
4 TDs in his last 6 games. 4.5 receptions per game this season. I was sleeping on the possibilities here vs. Dallas. My bad.
Also, check out and/or subscribe to Chris’s start up (in 2019) podcast Bet The Close – where he examines what all the experts are talking about handicapping games each week. He listens to and watches and reads what all the top sources are saying and reports that out, so you don’t have to put in all that work.
Chris has been the most consistent top ‘picker’ in our handicapping group over the years and is an accomplished bettor and dedicated to the study of things. You want to outsource your research to someone like him to get more ideas and to hear what other top handicappers are doing.
Subscribe/listen to his podcast Bet The Close on Apple, etc., podcast locations.
-- Courtland Sutton might be OK with Lock…but I worry about Noah Fant (3-14-0/5). Inaccurate/imprecise QBs and their tight ends don’t often mix well for fantasy. I want to see what happens, but I wouldn’t bet ahead on it if the Broncos change to Lock. Brandon Allen is much better for Fant.
-- Buffalo DE Shaq Lawson (2 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits) seems to be waking up after 3+ seasons of ‘meh’. 3.0 sacks his last two games. 4.0 sacks his last 5 games (and 4.0 sacks was his career season high for sacks prior). 8 QB hits and 5 TFLs the past five games.
Sean McDermott is a defensive guru…
-- Vic Fangio is also a defensive guru and he grabbed confounding/talented OLB/DE Jeremiah Attaochu (5 tackles, 2 TFLs) off waivers earlier in the season, and he’s been playing him a few snaps here and there…but gave him 58% of the snaps this game and Attaochu responded with 5 tackles and 2 TFLs. Maybe, Fangio can revive Attaochu’s career?
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Singletary
23 = Gore
28 = Royce Freeman
27 = Lindsay
46 = Attaochu
27 = Shaq Lawson
26 = Dre’Mont Jones