2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Browns 41, Dolphins 24
The game was 41-24 for the final score, but this was more like 50-10 type of thing. The Browns scored 21 points in the first 21 minutes of the game, eventually they went up 28-0 and led 28-3 at the half. They had a few fluky moments to let Miami try to get back in the game in the 3rd-quarter but then the Browns stepped right back on Miami’s neck and it was never really that close/at risk.
The thing that struck me watching this game at the same time as all the other 1pmET games was…as the Browns were dismantling their hapless opponent, a week after the CLE-PIT melee, so totally focused on business at hand…the Steelers were losing, scuffling, and luckily got ahead of late and defeated their hapless opponent (CIN). The Steelers had no fire coming off their Browns beating, and Cleveland was pretty sharp. Could this be a harbinger of things to come Week 13 when they meet again?
How about some credit for the much-maligned Freddie Kitchens? This team could’ve folded a few weeks ago, but they went and socked the Steelers in the mouth and then in an obvious letdown spot they just rolled through the Dolphins. Kitchens isn’t dead yet.
Cleveland is now 5-6, winners of three in-a-row. If they beat the Steelers Week 13, to get to 6-6…they can beat Cincy Week 14 and Arizona Week 15 – and then host Baltimore Week 16 with the Browns sitting with an 8-6 record. If they lose to the Ravens Week 16, they have Cincy Week 17. If they win Week 17, along with everything else I wrote above…the Browns would finish 9-7.
In the AFC, 9-7 should be the final wild card. The 9-7 group should include one of Indy or Tennessee (or both) and possibly Oakland. The Browns lost to Tennessee in this wild card cluster group, so they need the Titans to fall out of this. Oakland beat Indy, so they have that chip. Cleveland needs to make the 9-7 tiebreakers between them and Indy alone, and the Browns would win that with the better AFC record and better common opponents record (most likely). The Browns have to beat the Steelers this week, or their wild card dreams are over. If they win, they are pretty legit to finish 9-7 and possibly sneak into the playoffs. If they lose to the Steelers, this franchise is going to unravel to the finish.
Miami is re-falling apart and will probably turn to Josh Rosen soon just to lose their easy games coming up. Miami might not win a game the rest of the season, but most likely wins at least one more. We’ll see. 3-13 projected finish won’t get them a chance at the #1 pick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Baker Mayfield (24-34 for 327 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) had 3 TD passes in the first 21 minutes of the game. I thought he might get to 5-6+ TD passes, and he had chances in the 2nd-half, but fluky things happened like a deflection off a receiver INT, etc., and Cleveland was taking their foot off the pedal a bit in general.
Baker has 8 TDs the past three weeks (7 pass, 1 rush). He’s starting to connect with his receivers better, but the schedule has been getting much easier to help the cause.
Baker is the #10 QB in fantasy PPG (4pts per TD pass) since Week 10/last three weeks.
PIT-CIN-ARI the next 3 weeks is solid.
-- Why the Dolphins keep insisting on using Kalen Ballage (7-13-0, 1-13-0/1), I have no idea. What are they expecting to have happen? He’s carried the ball 71 times this season for 1.9 yards per carry…and he looks worse every game. Why not see what some of the other guys can do?
Every week it’s worse, and yet every week Brian Flores tells us all (implies) how dumb we are for questioning the great Ballage. I’d like to say, “Maybe this is the week for De’Lance Turner or Patrick Laird (3-20-0, 0-0-0/1),” but would it even matter with this team? Still, I’d like to see it.
Not sure we will see it, because you would have thought they’d change a while ago. They probably will without notice and we’ll all be reacting to it too late…but not sure if it would happen next week or Week 16-17.
-- You knew Jarvis Landry (10-148-2/13) was going to try to rack up on his old team, and credit to Baker for making it happen. That’s another reason why this team loves Baker. He knew…he helped. He then was one of the first down to celebrate with Landry on his cores…and then in there celebrating when OBJ caught a TD pass as well.
Versus PIT Week 13 is shaky for Landry-OBJ, but then CIN-ARI can be great again.
*Next Week 13 Projections Update on Saturday 11/30, no update planned for 11/29 Black Friday*
-- Devante Parker (6-91-0/11) continues his nice run…5.6 rec., 77.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game the past six games. He’s the #18 WR in PPG /PPR in fantasy since Week 7.
-- Browns DE Chad Thomas (5 tackles, 2 TFLs) has been getting much more playing time of late and he has 3.3 tackles, 1.33 TFLs, 0.33 PDs, 0.67 sacks per game his last 3 games.
I remember scouting him out of Miami, FLA and I thought he was a great rush end prospect but then his measurables were terrible and he fell in the draft and I kinda wrote him off. He’s making some noise in Cleveland playing 70%+ of the snaps the past 3 games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Chubb
42 = Hunt
50 = Dem Harris
36 = Stephen Carlson
18 = Seals-Jones
24 = Ballage
23 = Laird
16 = Gaskin