2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Jets 34, Raiders 3
Welp, the Raiders woke up and realized they were the Raiders this game…I guess. What I can’t get my arms around is if the Jets are lucky or good or both/you never know what you’re going to get. I bet the Jets to be ‘under’ 7.5 wins this season…a bet that seemed all but in the bag, but now they have a three game win streak and 4 wins for the season with @CIN, MIA the next two games. They better not win these next two. Come on Bengals, you can do it!
The Jets defense is good, I’ve been harping on that on and off all season…but that defense has been hot and cold vs. the easy schedule stretch the last few games. More ‘hot’ of late – the last two games holding Washington to 17 points (and mostly garbage pts) and the Raiders to 3 points here. At Cincy this week could make three nice DST efforts in a row...followed by hosting Miami for four nice DST efforts in a row on the table.
The Jets should win the next two and jump to 6-7 and then finish 7-9…but losing one of their next two would not be shocking and they finish 6-10, and that’s not bad under their circumstances.
Oakland had the playoffs in their hands with a win here, and they let it slip away. Now they go from wild card likely/AFC West title maybe to holding on for dear life if they get punished at KC this week. A loss to KC would bring the Raiders to 6-6 with four winnable, but not easy games ahead (TEN, JAX, @LAC, @DEN). They just don’t have the horses on defense to get past 8-8, I think…but 9-7 and sneaking into the playoffs is possible. They need to beat Tennessee Week 14, and have the Titans beat the Colts this week/13…and then the Raiders are looking very good for a wild card. Of course, if the Raiders beat KC this week…all hell will break loose as they have a shot to win the AFC West with a win this week. I think they finish 8-8 and they miss the playoffs or just sneak in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Sam Darnold (20-29 for 315 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) has 6 TDs/1 INT the past two games…but it happened vs. WAS-OAK, so it’s mildly interesting. But good matchups are a blessing for even mediocre/weak QBs and he has Cincy and Miami the next two weeks before he finishes with a brick wall of BAL-PIT-BUF.
I find it hard to trust Darnold for FF because, for example, the TDs/big plays in this game were a little ‘fortunate’. His rushing TD came after Oakland sacked the Jets out of the red zone but the worst roughing the passer call in the history of football reversed it into 1st & short TD. Later, a solid slant for 10+ yards turned into a 69-yard run to set up another short TD. I never see Darnold dominating as much as I see him existing and falling into crap every so often. He’s not terrible, he’s just not reliable…like Carolina’s Kyle Allen.
Still…@CIN and MIA the next two games should be solid.
-- Derek Carr (15-27 for 127 yards. 0 TD/1 INT) had his worst game of the season in a big spot. Carr is falling back to earth, somewhat fading because of the game plan for Oakland – run the ball, a lot
The last three weeks…2 TDs/2 INTs. He’s not played poorly, except this one wasn’t his best, it’s just a very conservative offense for good reason (good run game and blockers). It’s an efficient offense not high-flying.
Versus KC, TEN, JAX ahead…who knows? It’s not a bad stretch, but they’ll try to ‘run’ through it.
-- What’s wrong with Tyrell Williams (2-18-0/6)? A TD in each of his first 5 games this season, and then he’s had no TDs his last 4 games. Under 50 yards receiving his last 4 games. Not sure I really trust him this week, but I don’t necessarily mistrust him either. He looks fine on tape, but the volume is not #1 WR-worthy. The KC game should be a solid opportunity…but the trend of late is just not there. The weather in KC could be unconducive for a big passing effort any way.
-- Five TDs in his last 7 games for Ryan Griffin (3-13-1/3). I am not a fan, but the trends are with him. He’s not an explosive TE and this offense doesn’t thrill me but it’s working in this sweet schedule stretch the Jets have right now.
Since Week 9, Griffin is the #5 non-PPR and PPR in PPG for fantasy.
-- Jets LB James Burgess (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD, 1 FF) has started five games this season, and his tackle counts in those games beginning with his Week 8 start: 5-6-7-8-9.
I’m pretty sure 10 tackles are supposed to happen this week to keep the trend going.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Le’Veon
15 = Bilal
12 = Ty M
05 = Josh Adams
52 = Zay Jones
44 = Tyrell
24 = Renfrow (gone for season)
17 = Trevor Davis