2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Patriots 13, Cowboys 9
So, Dallas goes to New England…a place teams never go to win…and there is a steady Amazon rainforest going on all game…and Dallas makes several questionable coaching decisions – and they lose by 4 points and had a chance to go win the game with 2:38 left. How terrible a loss is this?
A loss every team in the NFL would have likely taken, except Baltimore, and NOW Jerry Jones thinks he has a coaching issue? NOW, people think Dallas is terrible…because they lost this game, this close? OK. I realize everything about everything is based on ‘what happened last week’, but the reaction to this game is comical. Had Dallas won the game by a Patriots player slipping and falling and creating a long TD for Dallas on their last drive – then we’d be talking about the Patriots’ dynasty being over and how Dallas is ‘that team’. It’s a game of inches…
It’s a game of infinity miles in our minds overreacting to every week.
New England was sputtering on offense and was excellent on defense and goes to 10-1…staying a game ahead of the Ravens for the #1 seed. The Patriots really need that #1 seed…home field is maybe their best hope to knock off the unbeatable Ravens. You have to figure one of Houston or KC will get them in the next two weeks. If they don’t, the Patriots will go 15-1 and be the #1 seed. They finish with @CIN-BUF-MIA.
The loss doesn’t kill Dallas, but it doesn’t help. They keep a game ahead of Philly, but the Eagles are going into an easy schedule stretch and Dallas has it a little tougher but not bad (BUF, @CHI, LAR). Everything is likely to come down to Week 16 at Philly. If Dallas wins that game, they are going to win the NFC East. Lose that game and there is tiebreakers and critical Week 17 things that arise. We see Dallas finishing 8-8 or 9-7 but losing to Philly Week 16 because of Jason Garrett…and they miss the playoffs and fire Garrett.
I think Dallas might lose to Buffalo this week and Dallas might fire Garrett the next day to try to rally the troops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First note that I’ll remember about this game, besides the weather…Dak Prescott (19-33 for 212 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 1-4-0) played one of his worst games I’ve seen.
I get that the weather was a factor, but Tom Brady didn’t seem too fazed. Dak had happy feet. His mechanics were off. He didn’t know whether to use a glove or not. Dak was missing throws, he was throwing into coverage – if I didn’t know better, I’d say that Dak got exposed as a ‘not worthy’ NFL franchise QB here. It’s not just the loss to react to…it was his real throw-to-throw performance on tape. Honestly, it was a bit jarring that ‘this’ Dak showed up in a big spot.
Which made me think of how bad he has been against any resistance this season…NO, GB, NYJ, PHI, MIN, NE are six games he faced stiffer defenses/physically tougher defenses – and Dallas is 1-5 in those games and Dak has 6 TDs/7 INTs. In Dallas’s other five games this season…the ‘Boys are 5-0 against terrible WAS, MIA, DET, NYG 2x and Dak has 15 TDs/3 INTs against that group.
Dak is the MVP of facing teams drafting in the bottom sever of the 2020 NFL Draft. Congrats.
Facing BUF, CHI, LAR, PHI the next 4 weeks, might be pretty rough ’meh’ for Dak and Dallas.
Also, this was the type of game that Dak running the ball could’ve made a real difference…and yet he ran the ball ONE TIME for 4 yards.
Not getting any MVP votes from me.
-- Tom Brady (17-37 for 190 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is not getting any MVP votes from me either.
Started the season with 7 TDs/0 INTs his first 3 games and has racked up 8 TDs/5 INTs in the eight games since…averaging 1 TD pass per game in that 8-game span. He’s not been a QB1 this year, and probably never will be again.
He’s still great as the lead of a team, and I’m sure they will find a way to win the Super Bowl…but Brady’s days of putting a team on his back are ending/over. He’s just not that QB anymore.
-- Another thing that sticks out to me from this game…
Was it me or did Blake Jarwin (23-17-0/4) look more important and like ‘the starter’ than Jason Witten (1-5-0/40 did? How different this game might have been if the Cowboys put in a wrinkle of going heavier Jarwin in the passing game, to try something the Patriots wouldn’t have been as prepare for? Nope, Dallas did what they always do.
It just felt like Jarwin was getting more time on the field and more trusted throws for Dak. Witten looks like he’s running in a field of molasses, with a 500-pound weight strapped to his back. He is near useless in the passing game, in creating any space or mismatches, etc. Yet…he’s ‘Jerry’s guy’ and Jerry wants to blame the coaches. Might Jarwin playing 90% of the snaps over Witten been the extra juice for a win here? Whose fault is that, really – the coach’s or Jerry’s?
I wonder if the despair ahead for Dallas will lead to more Jarwin and less sentimental Witten?
-- N’Keal Harry (1-10-1/4) had an amazing TD catch in this game…truly, a great catch. It was his only catch. Brady isn’t rolling up big numbers in general and a rookie who missed most of the season with an injury – he can’t walk in and be a great fantasy WR just because he’s a really talented WR.
It takes a while to get on the same page with Tom, and Tom isn’t as terrific for numbers for all receivers as he used to be.
I don’t see Harry as very FF-useful in the weeks to come when Sanu-Dorsett return.
-- Amari Cooper (0-0-0/2) didn’t help the case of whether he is a true #1 WR or not in this game. However, I put more blame on Dak along with Stephon Gilmore playing so well.
My thought after this is… Won’t Tre’Davious White do the same thing to him Week 13?
-- Can you trust the NE-DST ahead? How much upside is there in them @HOU and KC the next two games? Maybe against Houston, but it’s not great. Weeks 15-16 @CIN and BUF is worth holding onto them for. They need to keep winning to keep pace with/ahead of Baltimore for the #1 seed.
-- Would the Dallas-DST be a better hold? Maybe.
BUF-@CHI-LAR-@PHI...all below average offenses in 2019 suddenly. Dallas has a good defense but not an amazing one. The schedule is favorable but not ‘wow’ favorable.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Edelman
57 = N’Keal
54 = Jakobi
36 = Michel
21 = White
15 = Rex
52 = Witten
29 = Jarwin