2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Redskins 19, Lions 16
I thought the Lions were a best bet here and like many of my picks this week…’my team’ was handed gifts and couldn’t do anything with them, then the weird started to happen…then it all fell apart into devastating losses (for me as a bettor). And the Lions lost here too…their worst loss in a long time.
The Lions got a strip sack fumble on the first drive, and I thought “This bet is in the bag!” The Lions couldn’t get to a TD despite getting set up perfectly and then missed the FG attempt – which was an omen I didn’t realize was unfolding, at the time. Everything looked OK when the score was 3-3…but then Washington’s Steven Sims returned a kick return for a TD, and it was all downhill from there.
The Lions couldn’t stop the worst QB in the NFL when they needed to. The Lions dropped several picks. And then the Lions couldn’t move the ball on the Redskins the last 25 minutes and an inexplicable loss to Washington.
If Matt Patricia was ‘on the fence’ but likely getting another year as head coach…this one may have moved him to a very hot ‘hot seat’ and not likely back. It’s not so much that they lost this game, but the team is finding new ways to lose every week, the players don’t seem into Patricia (since day one), and there is no real excitement for the team for 2020. The squad needs to be blown up and remade…which is a good time to change the GM and head coach.
I mean, the Patriots were better before and after Matt Patricia on defense…and then he goes to Detroit and is 9-16-1 so far in his Lions’ head coaching career and has lost seven of his last 8 games…and just lost to a team that was fighting to be the single worst in the league. Why would anyone believe Patricia is the guy to turn this around going forward? If the Lions get embarrassed by Chicago at home on Thanksgiving…that’s probably the end of Patricia.
We project the Lions to finish 4-11-1 to end the season…and then dump the GM and Head Coach.
Washington butchered their chance for the #1 pick in the draft, which will cost them in so many ways. This win was costly. They needed a guy like Joe Burrow, but this win takes them out of that chance really…and it gives false hope in their nightmare – Dwayne Haskins. A double whammy with this win. It’s likely 2-3 wins tops for the Redskins this season and no #1 pick…and a new coaching staff as well to come.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Bo Scarbrough (18-98-0, 0-0-0/1) is so Derrick Henry it’s scary. Similar size, similar running styles, similar measurables, same college. The thing that is so odd…with all their similarities Henry was drafted to be a franchise RB, and has become one, whereas Scarbrough has gone from…
1) drafted 7th-round by Dallas 2018, cut by Dallas Sept. 2018, brought back to Practice Squad, then flat out dropped from the Practice Squad in Oct 2018. Do you know how troubling it is that your draft team drops you from the practice squad?
2) Picked up by Jacksonville and put on their practice squad Oct. 2018.
3) Seattle, home of ‘character is irrelevant’ grabbed him off the Jags P.S in Dec. 2018…due to their own RB injury despair. He stuck with Seattle this offseason and was released Sept. 2019/didn’t make the 53-man, nor was asked to be on the practice squad.
4) Scarbrough couldn’t get a contract from Weeks 1-10 this season…in an NFL dealing with RB injuries galore!
All we can deduce is that he is quite a piece of work off the field. Athletic talent and size and college pedigree…so, there must be trouble otherwise. Maybe he gets straightened out, but the trend is not in favor of it. He’s working OK now, in Detroit’s despair, until Kerryon Johnson returns (whether 2019 or 2020).
It’s a sketchy future from here for Bo, but right now he is Derrick Henry…on a bad offense and can’t catch passes well (like Henry). Use it for what it is worth. It doesn’t have a long expiration date, and the upcoming schedule is going to hurt as well.
-- Surely, Washington will start to push Derrius Guice (10-32-0, 1-6-0/2) now…I mean, why not? Showed well in his return last week. AP is doing nothing. Let’s see what he can do this week vs. Detroit!
Guice’s first touch in this game was 20+ minutes into it.
There is no plan. There’s just Bill Callahan. The owner’s name is Dan. AP is the man.
I don’t know when Callahan will stop featuring an aged RB who won’t be back with the team next year, but it could be soon. Guice, any week now, should get the ‘we’re going to give him the start’ pat on the head…and then he’ll be an RB1 projection from that point on in 2019. I just don’t know when it will happen.
-- Steven Sims (0-0-0/2…0-1 passing…91-yard KR TD) had a wonderful 91-yard kick return TD. He has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s the most explosive/dangerous player on this team.
What does that get you in Washington Week 12?
ZERO bubble screens.
ZERO jet sweeps.
But 1 pass attempt!?!?!?!?!
Lest, you think I have no scouting talent because the Atlanta Falcons ruined my 2019 this week – I called the Steven Sims scouting/future in January 2019, and sent my scouting reports to various contacts and published it publicly trying to get the guy a deserved draft boost…and he went undrafted. Why would you ever think what I do with my stunning NFL Draft scouting and accuracy projecting college talent has any meaning to the NFL? I have handed them gold many times, and they have seen some of the wild successes, I know this because some NFL personnel people have subscribed to my College Football Metrics…all my successful calls, better success than any of their scouts (I suspect, by their drafts) -- and do you see any team really racking up the talent in the draft and as UDFAs year-after-year? The NFL Draft is a crapshoot/random event every year with every team.
My scouting report on Sims was picked up by Redskins’ websites and fan sites this summer because they started to ‘see’…the fans get it, and other writers took my ideas and words (some actually giving me due credit), so at least I’m not the only one who sees it. A lot of football fans do. Only billion-dollar football organizations don’t/have no interest in talent assessment and accumulation. If only I had gone to an Ivy League school, they would assume I was worth listening to.
You’d think more Steven Sims long TDs would matter more for playing time and touches than the fact he is undrafted, right? Ask Cordarrelle Patterson how high TD-to-touch ratios gets you more touches in the NFL.
The opportunity is right there in front of the Redskins’ face…and they have no idea what to do with it. At least, Jay Gruden was smart enough to roster him and use him a little instead of jamming him on the Practice Squad. Maybe, the new coach will see it too.
The Washington management team has little interest in Steven Sims but are HUGE Dwayne Haskins’ believers…if you wonder why they suck at what they do.
Just had to vent.
-- Speaking of Dwayne Haskins (13-29 for 156 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)…the worst top QB prospect playing NFL games in front of my eyes since DeShone Kizer and Blake Bortles. And I think I might take Kizer-Bortles right now. At least, they can run a little bit.
Not only is Haskins a terrible QB, missing open receivers this entire game, flirting with turnovers constantly…he missed the last snap of the game because he was involved with people in the stands taking a selfie, and they had to send Case Keenum onto the field for the final play to end it. That’s Dwayne Haskins in a nutshell.
Everything I heard about him from Redskins’ sources is 100% true…a diva, not a hard worker/not a worker at all, disliked in the locker room, a ‘bust’ and everyone knows it – except Washington execs failed President Bruce Allen and asleep-at-the-switch VP Doug Williams. Bruce Allen and Doug Williams are the Dwyane Haskins of personnel people…so, it’s very cosmic they all found each other.
How the Lions lost this game, I’ll never know…but I bet it heavy for DET -3.5 and may be the reason that I retire from week-to-week betting. There is no way Washington should have won this game…but they did. It’s impossible to predict football outcomes based on ‘the data’, ‘the matchup’…at least for me it is.
-- Jeff Driskel (20-33 for 207 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 9-63-0) is the far superior QB to Haskins, and is as good as any QB in the #20-30 range among NFL starters right now. He tried to make things happen late and got picked off on two of his last 3 throws to produce a fantast dud…just when some of us needed him.
A few notes…
-He looked solid for 3+ quarters and missed a 40-yard TD pass by a yard and had several near-miss end zone shots turned FG-attempts. It just wasn’t his day, but he was moving the ball.
-Driskel was not just running as a scrambler…he is running on purpose on plays. He’s good for 50+ yards rushing a game and then whatever else he can add as a passer.
-- Two great WRs dying on their team’s QB play in this game…
Kenny Golladay (4-61-0/4) is getting some ‘go get it’ targeting from Driskel, but not a lot of pitch-and-catch work that you’d like to see for FF. Everything is a chore in the Lions passing game, but with Marvin Jones there seems to be more connection. Golladay is not dead week-to-week but note that in tough matchups Driskel is not as likely to make this work…Quinton Dunbar is really good for Washington as a shutdown CB.
Terry McLaurin (5-72-0/12) has really impressed me this season. He, I did not see coming in my scouting…not at all. He’s a terrific craftsman WR with athletic talent. I’d rate him as a top 2-3 WR from this 2019 NFL Draft class, after the fact, if I knew he wouldn’t be stuck with Haskins for another season. Haskins is killing McLaurin…which makes him a good ‘buy low’ for 2020 if you see Haskins failing fast (which he is).
-- Remember back after Week 1, when every analyst proclaimed T.J. Hockenson (0-0-0/2) ‘Gronk 2.0’? The best fantasy TE prospect?
Hockenson isn’t on the same planet as Noah Fant for fantasy (or for the NFL in my book). I’m not slamming TJH…just noting he was overrated by every single draft analyst parroting each other. Another case THEY were all on one side of the trade, and duped the Lions into wasting a high 1st-round pick…and duped some dynasty owners into this rookie pick as well.
Since Week 2, Hockenson is the #40 TE in fantasy PPR in PPR….a sweet TE4?
I tried to warn them…
They don’t listen to stupid old me…I’m so stupid I bet on the Lions in this game, so what do I know? Part of my benefit with FFM/CFM…steering you AWAY from danger, which is hard to quantify. If you were still sucking off the ESPN teat, you would have been all in on Hockenson…and Miles Sanders.
-- I also claimed Cole Holcomb (13 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) was one of the top 3 linebackers in this draft, up there with the Devins. But do they listen to me? No.
Wait. Washington has both Holcomb and Steven Sims…are they listening to me somewhere, one lonely guy in the scouting department dealing with the non-1st-round pick types because the personnel heads have no idea who any of the players after Mel Kiper’s top 25 in the draft are? Maybe. Hello to you my friend! Washington does have some nice young talent, but like the Browns…they’ll likely butcher it because of bad organizational operations.
FYI, Holcomb put up these numbers just playing 67% of the snaps. Gotta have time for Jon Bostic when you’re 2-9!!
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = McLaurin
38 = Harmon
24 = Sims
22 = Quinn
26 = Guice
20 = AP
16 = Smallwood
38 = Scarbrough
27 = Ty Johnson
11 = McKissic (their most effective RB the last three weeks…lowest snap count here, nice!)