2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Seahawks 17, Eagles 9
Seattle was pretty dominant, in general, but the Eagles defense kept them in the game for as long as they could, flustering Russell Wilson and harassing the Seattle WRs. But Carson Wentz kept turning the ball over all game and couldn’t score a TD until 59:38 of the game had elapsed. It was 17-9 Seattle, final…but felt like 25+ to 3-7 on the judge’s scorecard.
You can’t get too down on Philly…they aren’t good/perfect, but they were missing their two top O-Lineman here and came into the game minus their only real RB and their two starting WRs. This was about as much as they could have hoped for…keep it close and had chances to make it a game in the 4th-quarter but couldn’t hold up.
The Eagles fall to 5-6, still a game behind Dallas…but with a very nice schedule ahead. If they sweep @MIA, NYG, @WAS the next three games, which they should but not a given, then they will be 8-6 hosting likely 8-6 Dallas in a huge showdown. Dallas wins that Week 16 game, and it’s over for Philly. The Eagles win, then we start looking at tiebreakers and Week 17 matters for both teams. I have a feeling the Eagles are going to find a way, in part because of their schedule and the Week 16 game being AT Philly.
Seattle is now 9-2, Chasing 10-1 San Francisco. Seattle has been very lucky all season…not they are not a good team, but several OT wins and a last second missed FGs, etc. It’s a 9-2 team that should be around 6-5. I don’t think they’ll surpass the 49ers for the NFC West title, but they will be a wild card for sure.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How many times are we going to do this?
How many times do we need to get teased with Rashaad Penny (14-129-1, 0-0-0/1) FINALLY taking over for Chris Carson (8-26-0, 4-31-0/4) before it really happens?
How many times will we fall for it? I, myself, have fallen for it several times the past two years. I’m not planning on participating in this sadomasochistic ritual again…call me when Carson is seriously injured and out/gone, then I’ll evaluate the Penny-Prosise-Homer split.
But, R.C.!!!! This time is different…Pete Carroll said he was going to get Penny back in there next week!!! Pete Carroll is experienced…he knows how this works. What else do you want him to say? The media is hounding him about Carson’s fumbles and how good Penny looked (obviously)…so, the best way he can make it go away and satiate the media is by acknowledging how much he likes each RB and that there’s no reason not to have Penny out there next week. Hell, Penny is OUT there every week…he just barely plays or touches the ball or does anything most weeks.
Carroll is leaving himself the perfect out, as a good coach in a presser should. He’ll start Carson…and if Carson is doing well, he’ll stick with Carson. If he puts Penny in for a spell and he does well, some nice split work then. If Penny doesn’t crack a long TD to get everyone’s attention…then he goes back to heavy Carson and can say Carson was the hotter back. Carroll sidestepped saying anything specific and gave coach-speak and everyone bought it and moved on. Carroll said nothing more than they love Carson, and that Penny looked good and he’ll be out there again next week (but, again, Penny is always OUT there…what does that even mean?).
So, if you want to blow your whole FAAB budget or waiver priority chasing Penny…God Bless you. I hope it works, but it has yet to…ever…the past two seasons. Others would like to spend up on Penny but blew all their money on chasing Jaylen Samuels with similar logic.
The flow of this game… Carson was scuffling early but was not terrible. Penny was sprinkled in and was better but it his typical relief work. Then with about 13 minutes left in the game, Penny came in and reeled off a 21-yard run. Two plays later, he popped the 58-yard run TD to kinda put away the game (a 17-3 lead at the time).
The next Seattle series, guess who was the RB on the first play? Carson. To lead off that series, Carson took the first carry and fumbled (and recovered it) and then a miscommunication on the handoff on the next play which led to another fumble, this time they lost it and now we had the Penny TD followed by two Carson fumbles…a category Carson leads the league in this season.
The next Seattle series, guess who the RB was on the first play? Penny. Guess who was the RB was the second play? Carson.
Seattle is not quitting Carson. The furthest they will go is splitting Penny-Carson…and that would be in-game, if Penny is obvious that moment. When Carson starts Week 13, and if he is rolling strong…he will dominate touches and be lauded for his resiliency and no one will care that Penny got stiffed again, because Carson was fine. If Carson flops, you bring in Penny some and see if that works. The door is open for a Penny-Carson split, but Carson could slam that door shut with a good start to Week 13.
The problem is they face Minnesota, a top run defense…so it could be tough sledding for both backs…but a better situation for Penny to show he’s better than Carson again.
-- Note two things tonight:
1) Our usual Video Q&A Tuesday night from 930pmET to about 11pmET.
Bring your fantasy questions and
2) PLANNED: After the Fantasy show finishes, I will shut the Video Q&A down, then re-open the video to be joined by a special guest who will be interviewing me for his 2019 startup Football Handicapping podcast. We’ll be talking about betting the Thursday games and many other handicapping items. That will run like 11:05-11:30pmET or so, if all goes according to script.
We will try to take any handicapping questions posed in the chat room as well, including survivor thoughts or any teasers or any anything you want to pose. But we’ll start with what the host wants to address for his show.
Feel free to watch that interview live (he’s recording the audio for his podcast) or watch it on-demand later, and we’ll post the podcast info if you want to give his podcast a whirl.
-- Russell Wilson (13-25 for 200 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) completed 13 passes in this game. It was not a great pass game situation. The Eagles played well on defense, again, and the weather was gray and cool. Not ideal.
Within all that, Tyler Lockett (1-38-0/2) came back from his injury and caught all of one pass on two targets. All I can say is…Lockett looked fine moving around, played 86% of the snaps. It was a normal game, but Philly did a good job making Metcalf-Gordon try to beat them and they didn’t either, but Seattle spread it around and got by.
I’m fine with Lockett v. MIN this week.
Actually, Philly was smart – they played the deeper pass and dared Philly to beat them with sluggish Chris Carson and can’t-catch-well D.K Metcalf…and they nearly pulled it off. Rashaad Penny foiled their plan.
-- Well, the media has finally started acknowledging Carson Wentz (33-45 for 256 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) is not playing well. Something we’ve noted for several weeks.
Nothing is more ‘telling’ to the mainstream than a QB having a few lower output games and his team losing high-interest/national TV games…so, welcome Carson Wentz to what Kirk Cousins had to deal with earlier in the season – questioning all week if he is ‘the wrong guy’.
The cure is coming…@MIA, NYG, @WAS. It’s not a real cure, but it will satiate the media and fans for a bit.
I’m not a Wentz guy, but with all the injuries around him and playing the schedule he has had…cut him a little slack. For fantasy? Wentz has been terrible most of the season. And I’m not sure he’ll run it up on the easier schedule either. But it is a great set up ahead.
-- It doesn’t help Wentz that he’s working with backup, weak WRs…
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (2-43-0/5) has great hands but cannot get open in the NFL…as I said from his NFL Draft scouting this past summer. NFL people are just waking up to this.
Greg Ward (6-40-0/7) is a former running-QB turned WR that made his NFL starting debut. He’s scrappy and fairly athletic, but not off the charts athletic. He’s tougher than Nelson Agholor but not as experienced a receiver. But if he was going to surpass Agholor…it would have happened a while ago, as Agholor has failed over and over. If Agholor is out for a while, Ward is a 4-5 catch a game guy. Nothing special/imminent.
-- If having two top O-Lineman in the league out and both starting WRs and Jordan Howard…the ‘answer’ of Jay Ajayi (6-16-0) is no help either. This guy… Teams have been searching under couch cushions looking for RBs to aid in all their injury issue situations this season, and no team has had any interest in Ajayi. That’s until the team that tried to make him their ‘franchise back’ just two years ago, had to sign him. He was a failure then and he’s a failure now. I could not have any less interest in him for FF.
The tandem of Ajayi and Miles Sanders (12-63-0, 3-23-0/5) might be the worst in the league.
I don’t think Jordan Howard is coming back this season, and if he doesn’t…there’s little chance Philly is beating Dallas Week 16.
-- We’ve beaten the Eagles-DST plan to death…the great Weeks 13-15 schedule. If you weren’t in ahead on it, going to be hard to get in this week with everyone chasing it.
What I did want to mention…another stellar performance for this once mocked defense. Four weeks of really nice results, coinciding with them getting their starting CBs back healthy. The last 4 games they’ve allowed 13-14-17-17 points in games, holding top NFL teams Seattle and New England to 17 points each.
Fitzpatrick, Dan. Jones, Haskins the next three weeks…it HAS to be good, right?
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Sanders
09 = Ajayi
03 = B Scott
73 = JMatt (buh bye)
54 = J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
66 = Goedert
66 = Ertz
35 = Carson
30 = Penny
57 = Metcalf
56 = Lockett
12 = Gordon
48 = Rasheem Green
20 = Josh Sweat