2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Texans 20, Colts 17
This was quite the AFC South showcase… These are the two best teams in the division? Yawn. Was there one of the team definitively better than the other? I mean, if T.Y. Hilton could catch…the Colts win on the road. In what world is it that Hilton can’t catch and Will Fuller can? This game.
A quiet, peaceful game played by two solid teams that are not a threat to getting to the Super Bowl had a game and one of them won because we have instant replay and never use it…and didn’t use it here to reveal a Deshaun Watson strip/fumble later in the game. A play that may have changed the outcome, but this entire NFL season has been filled with ‘what tape are they watching?’ The only people in football worse than the TV analysts, the head coaches, and GMs…are the video replay referees. If you’re a Colts fan…it may have cost you the season/playoffs.
Houston jumps to 7-4 and the AFC South lead...and opened the door for Tennessee (and killed Jacksonville), who has to play the Texans twice (Weeks 15 and 17) to try to win this division. We still see the Texans as a 9-win team, but nine wins should do it for the AFC South…and the Colts could get into that 9-win tiebreaker situation along with Tennessee…but it would be a minor miracle for the Titans. The Texans play the Patriots next week, so the high from this win may not last long and re-opens the door to TEN and IND.
Indy has a huge game hosting the Titans next week. The loser of that game is probably done for any AFC South/playoff hopes. Assuming the Colts win at home over Tennessee, we see them finishing 9-10 wins…and they still might jump over Houston because of the remaining schedule. All very tight still, and not over yet…but Houston took a nice step forward here.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How about Jonathan Williams (26-14-1, 3-17-0/3) in his first NFL start? Looks better than Marlon Mack to me, but I’m not big on Mack…so, take that with a grain of salt.
Williams ran with energy, passion, career opportunity/desperation. He earned the heavy workload here. Jordan Wilkins was nowhere to be found. Nyheim Hines (9-51-0, 2-10-0/3) is incapable of handling a bigger workload. Williams seized his moment. He was solid enough. Not a future star…just capable.
The problem with getting too excited for Williams is…the moment Mack returns from injury (which could be Week 13, but probably Week 14) it’s Mack’s backfield. But I could see Williams pulling more touches and making this even more of a cluster (great for NFL purposes, bad for FF ones).
Use Williams for all he’s worth, if you have him. He’s got about a two-week shelf life and then it’s ‘handcuff’ value upon Mack’s return. The schedule the next two weeks is not great either…Tennessee (#13 v. run) and Tampa Bay (#2 v. run).
The better Williams does…the more touches Mack will lose in rotations ahead.
-- I spent all week pooh-poohing Will Fuller (7-140-0/11) and then he goes out and has a great game and catches everything in sight.
In his last 12 games (2018-2019), Fuller has scored 11 or more PPR points in a game four times (33% of the time).
He’s scored a TD (or more) in two of those 12 games.
He’s hit 60+ yards in a game five times in those 12 games.
The bet has been to go against Fuller for fantasy. This game, he had one of those games that will draw everyone back to him. NE and DEN the next two weeks…not a guy I’ll bet on for a repeat there. You can if you wish.
-- You expect Will Fuller to disappoint and drop passes, and T.Y. Hilton (3-18-0/6) to be the star WR on the field…but the roles were reversed in some Freaky Friday incident. Hilton dropped 2-3 passes for likely 20+ yard plays in this game…catches he had hauled in but then couldn’t secure. Key plays too…ruined drives, cost the game really.
I don’t know who the WR coach for the Colts is, and I’m not taking time to look it up…but he has assembled the worst group of WRs ‘in case of emergency’ – and they have an emergency right now.
Deon Cain failed, and was cut…after being a preseason star for two years. Devin Funchess…who the hell gave a thumb’s up to sign him to a deal? Zach Pascal (0-0-0/1) has failed MISERABLY with Hilton and Parris Campbell out. Chester Rogers (1-12-0/1) is a waste of space as well. The Colts needed WRs to step up with Hilton banged up, and none of them did…and it may cost them the season/division/playoffs.
-- KYLE ALLEN ALERT!!!!
Jacoby Brissett (16-25 for 129 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-20-1) started out so hot, a QB1 through Week 7 with 14 TD passes/3 INTs…2.3 TD passes per game was awesome!!!
We can fall into a trap of remembering the early work when the numbers were strong and then seeing that the season long averages are being swayed too much by their early work (like when Kyle Allen dropped 4 TD passes on ARI in his 2019 debut start)…but sometimes that hides the last few troubling starts of a fade/issue, hidden from our eyes because we made up our mind who a player is. Brissett has just 1 TD/1 INT total in his last 4 games. 1 TD pass in 3 games essentially (the 4th he left early with injury).
That’s what Brissett is…a game manager, who is a decent runner. Brissett has played 10 games this season, he has thrown for 205 yards or less in a game in 7 (70%) of those games. Teams have figured him out or he’s run out of gas. Either way…not good.
-- Since Week 6, Deshaun Watson (19-30 for 298 yards. 2 TDs/1 INT) is the #9 QB in fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD). Behind Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, and Josh Allen…among others.
Watson is #4 in PPG for the season…LJax-Wilson-Prescott ahead of him. NE and DEN the next two weeks are the #2 and #5 pass defenses in the NFL.
-- The Colts-DST has held four of their last 5 opponents to 17 or fewer points against. But the list is made up of DEN, MIA, JAX…but now HOU. It’s a solid defense, controlling the clock well in games, and trying to play small ball to win games and suppress the opponents scoring to help do so.
Tannehill-Winston the next two weeks might not be so bad for a DST option, especially facing Tampa/Turnover Bay.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Fells
28 = Akins
07 = Jordan Thomas
30 = Duke
29 = Hyde
45 = Jon Williams
22 = Hines
01 = J Wilkins