2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 12 – Titans 42, Jaguars 20
This game was a sluggish, awful affair early on…a 7-3 Titans lead at the half. Tennessee then scored 28 points in the first 9+ minutes of the 3rd-quarter off a comedy of errors, and the next thing you knew…it was a 35-3 Titans lead/bombing of Jacksonville. The Jags threw some garbage in late, but this was the tale of two games – scuffling teams in the 1st-half, and a blowout in the 2nd.
Tennessee gets a much-needed win and is firmly in the AFC South race. Week 13 at Indy (6-5) is essentially a playoff game. The winner of that game will be 7-5, and if Houston (7-4) loses to the Patriots then 7-5 is the AFC South lead.
It’s a tricky path for Tennessee from here with two road games against solid teams (IND-OAK) the next two weeks. A 9-7 finish is possible but 8-8 is firmly on the board as our prediction.
Jacksonville played another game where they embarrassed themselves. They have lost their last three games by a combined 101-36 tally. They will finish with 6-7 wins this season. Then the firings can begin. They should just fire Marrone now and see how John DeFilippo does as an interim coach.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Ryan Tannehill (14-18 for 259 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-40-2) is tearing up the NFL right now.
Five starts in 2019. 4-1 record. 10 TDs/3 INTs. 70%+ Completion Percentage. 38.3 yards rushing per game the past three games. He’s been terrific.
He’s the #3 QB in fantasy since Week 7/he began starting for Tennessee.
If I was going to pick at anything given this run…it would be that it’s been a pretty favorable run of defensive opponents to produce numbers on -- LAC-TB-CAR-KC-JAX. Hey! Doesn’t matter. It’s working. AND…AND…the schedule keeps getting better ahead (at least the next 3 weeks)…@IND, @OAK, HOU, and NO. No reason to believe a giant fall off will occur.
…except, come on…this can’t keep up, right? Isn’t this where a guy earns all the fan/analyst praise and then falls down as teams adjust/figure him out? Remember how great Kyle Allen was his first few games? The Panthers’ future!
In terms of riding the hot hand…Tannehill is as hot as there is right now.
-- You may have noticed my A.J. Brown (4-135-1/5) change of tune this week?
There are three parts to this…
1) If Tannehill is rolling, A.J. Brown is his top target.
Since Week 7, the targets from Tannehill:
27 = Brown (2 TDs in that span)
21 = C. Davis (1 TD)
18 = Humphries (1 TD)
2) The schedule ahead is nice…@IND-@OAK-HOU…two nice weather condition games at least.
3) Watching Brown this past week…I’m starting to see a little ‘it’ factor. He looked unconfident, lost, easily thwarted by coverage early on the first 5 or so games this season…on a team that could NOT successfully throw the ball…BUT now they CAN throw the ball.
And, most importantly, Brown looks really good taking those little crossers and then just outrunning the defense. Early season, when he took a couple short crossers for big plays…it was all he did and seemed like ‘luck’. Now that he keeps stacking them up…it’s not luck.
I thought Brown was solid for the NFL coming out of Ole Miss…good, but overrated, and definitely overrated for FF going to Tennessee in a weak passing game. As the passing game is now sparking – Brown can go with it.
Now, before you get too excited…it’s still a low volume passing game. Brown isn’t going to have 7+ catch for 100+ yard games consistently. He’s more yards after catch hopes. He’s moved from rando WR3-4 to solid WR3 with WR1-2 upside on his big plays.
-- Derrick Henry 19-159-2, 1-16-0/1) hurt his hamstring in practice Wednesday. We don’t know his status for this week. Could be fine, could be an issue. This is why I preached Dion Lewis for weeks for all us D. Henry owners.
If Henry is out, Lewis is an RB1.5 projection this week. AND, if Henry is out, that hurts the TEN passing game. It’s the extra focus on Henry that opens up the efficient passing game of Tannehill.
-- Delanie Walker goes on I.R. this week. I should be extra excited about Jonnu Smith (1-4-0, 0-0-0/0) and I want to be, because he is wonderful, but as you can see here…no Delanie this game, and Jonnu got zero targets.
He actually got one, it was a Derrick Henry TD pass attempt that Jonnu was going to get, so the defender grabbed him for the P.I.
Jonnu should be great for this offense, but Tennessee is in explicable in how they use weapons…which is why A.J. Brown is just a strong WR3 now, and not a strong WR2 projection – you never know the Titans plans/targets/play calling outside of run Henry 20+ times.
-- Nick Foles (32-48 for 272 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played his worst game of the year. Throwing passes into coverage, forcing action, a lot of attempts and not a lot of results.
It’s not bad, but nothing looks all that great with the Jaguars passing game right now. A lot of attempts are propping up JAX pass game numbers of late.
D.J. Chark (5-38-0/6) was covered well by Adoree Jackson, and DJC was doubled a few times. No real reason for panic on Chark, but you want better games than this, especially in a blowout. This week vs. TB should be a nice setup.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = Henry
08 = D Lewis
45 = O’Leary
43 = Koyack