2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Chiefs 40, Raiders 9
Cold, windy road game for warm-weather Oakland and it got out of hand fast. 21-0 KC at the half, the third KC TD of the half a pick-six backbreaker. It was 31-0 KC with 6+ minutes remaining. 40-9 the merciful final.
It’s hard to read anything into the work here for fantasy because Oakland got down so much, so quick and the weather was not conducive for offense…the last 20+ minutes of the game was just a mercy killing, a run-run-run clock and get it over with event with backups in for KC in spots on defense. It was never really a ‘real’ game.
Kansas City goes to 8-4 and is all but set up to win the division. I think they beat the Patriots this week and then win out for a 12-4 record and a possible #2 seed. If they lose to New England and fall to 8-5, they won’t get a BYE and if Oakland wins to stay a game behind…the AFC West is still open for another few weeks, but with KC holding all the cards. The most likely outcome is KC wins the AFC West and is a #2 or #3 seed…possible #4 seed (since they lost to HOU this season already).
Oakland is still alive for things. They really have a chance at a wild card IF they beat Tennessee this week. A win would push the Raiders to 7-6 with tiebreaker edge over (7-6 or 6-7) Indy and (7-6) Tennessee. If the Raiders can win this week, they could win two OR three of their final 3 games and be a 10-win for sure wild card or a 9-win hopeful with the edge over Indy/Tenn. The Raiders’ season comes down to Week 14 hosting Tennessee really…lose and they are likely toast. Win and they are odds-on for the final wild card in the AFC fighting the Steelers for the final spot. Oakland has JAX, @LAC, @DEN to finish the season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- To what are you basing your Darwin Thompson (11-44-1) enthusiasm on?
He’s barely played at all this season…in a backfield always in turmoil and needing help, having an open door for anyone to seize it – and, yet, he’s not been trusted all year.
Finally, when Darrel Williams goes down injured in-game and Damien Williams is out, leading by 30+ points, KC decides to let LeSean McCoy (5-10-1, 3-20-0/3) rest and let Darwin have an extended practice session in a lost game for the final 20 minutes and he did OK enough. Not exactly a ringing endorsement or sweet resume to get excited about for Week 14.
This week, KC plays for A LOT at stake at New England…I cannot foresee this being a sudden breakout game for Thompson. Spencer Ware may walk in off the street, into an offense he already knows, and be more a factor than Thompson -- for pass protection reasons, etc.
In upcoming weeks against teams KC should handle, if Damien is out more…then I could see more Darwin work to get him ready for the playoffs, but this week AT the Patriots…a guy not really used all year…risky play for FF Week 14.
-- In last year’s playoff game, Tyreek Hill (5-55-0/8) was used as a decoy essentially…1 catch on 3 targets. Not surprisingly, KC struggled on offense until a furious comeback attempt 2nd-half sent it to OT and the Chiefs lost.
Can the Patriots take out Tyreek Hill? Sure. Will they? Maybe. They tried to take out Travis Kelce in 2018 regular season and the Chiefs scored 40 points in a loss, and Tyreek had 3 TDs. When they focused on Hill in the playoffs, the Pats allowed 31 points and almost lost.
I’m guessing they’ll go after Hill, but most teams do and Hill eventually finds his way.
No matter what, you have to start Tyreek…and pray.
-- Josh Jacobs (17-104-0) has been playing with a broken shoulder for weeks we all found out this week. If he’s been working through games with it for weeks, I assume he will do so again in Week 14 as well…a must-win/season make or break game.
Jacobs played reduced snaps at the end of this game because they were getting killed, so no sense subjecting him to more hits.
If Jacobs is worse off and goes inactive, I’d assume a Washington-Richard split with DeAndre Washington (2-50, 3-44-0/5) seeing a bit more carries and Jalen Richard (1-20, 1-6-0/2) a few more targets.
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.
-- Where has Tyrell Williams (1-9-0/4) gone? A TD in every one of his first 5 games, and then no TDs the past 5 games…and barely WR3-4 work or targeting the past 5 games.
This week could be a bounce back with the Titans down two starting corners, including their best one…Adoree Jackson.
Tyrell is playing heavy snaps and been targeted well for the Raiders, but the Raiders haven’t been leaning on anyone heavy outside of Darren Waller off-and-on. Everything looks fine on tape, it’s just not happening between Tyrell and Carr of late. Must win this week, and more passing projected…could be a bounce back spot.
-- The Chiefs-DST has played well in four of their last 5 games. Holding their last two opponents to 17 and 9 points respectively. Since Week 7, the Chiefs-DST is #6 in fantasy scoring (FantasyPros scoring).
The Chiefs have 7 turnovers created in their last two games. They’ve held opposing passers to under 250 yards in five of their last 7 games. They have a vicious pass rush group when enough of them are healthy. Frank Clark should play this week (illness) as a key to stopping/slowing the Patriots.
Snap Counts of Interest:
24 = McCoy
23 = Darwin Th
34 = Jacobs
15 = D Washington
11 = Richard