2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Packers 31, Giants 13
I remembered this as Green Bay being dominant and killing the Giants, but it was only 17-13 GB going into the 4th-quarter. It was a hot Packers start and then a sloppy midsection of play from both teams...but understandable given the weather was getting tougher/snowier as the game wore on.
The Packers scored to start the 4th quarter and Daniel Jones kept throwing pick and thus the Giants could not answer anything late as Green Bay kept adding to their lead. A clear Green Bay win but not a great/quality win — sloppy weather and a weak/quitting opponent helped.
Green Bay goes to 9-3 and has a schedule to get them to 11-3 for a Week 16 showdown at likely 10-4 Minnesota. The Packers hold the edge today, but assuming they lose at the last true home field advantage, at Minnesota – then it’s going to come down to Week 17 outcomes and tiebreakers for the NFC North. The loser going to the wild card. The NFC North winner probably is not a #2 seed…unless Green Bay pulls the upset at Minnesota – then they have a shot at a #2 seed.
The Giants have lost eight in a row and have two things they are working towards: (1) Seeing if they can get into the #1 NFL Draft pick spot and (2) Firing and then finding a new coach their 3rd in the last 4 years. The Giants have slowly/quickly become about as bad a franchise as the N.Y. Jets.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Daniel Jones (20-37 for 240 yards, 1 TD/3 INT) played pretty poorly here…3 INTs and two of them were like ‘who are you throwing to, the other team?’ The final pick was just overthrown. Not good. He got hurt and will likely not play this week. Instead, you get sweet Eli for Week 14.
Eli is a worse Daniel Jones…because Eli can’t run. It will be ugly, I’d bet. No repeat of him coming off a benching last year and popping for a return game. At Philly, it might be pretty bad. I bet Eli thought he’d never take another hit in the NFL again. Now, he’s got to get back out there.
Eli in Week 14 will be like Ryan Fitzpatrick…nothing to prove or answer to, so just throw it up for grabs – but Fitz is much better at that. Eli could get picked if he ‘goes for it’ without a care…or he just does what he did earlier this season -- quick dump passes so he doesn’t get hit. Either way, probably not good.
Would the Giants take Joe Burrow if they got the #1 pick? I doubt it. I suspect the Giants will fire Pat Shurmur, but keep GM Dave Gettleman, who will hire like a Norv Turner type to work with the golden boy (D Jones)…and then it will be like the Ryan Tannehill run in Miami. Not terrible, but not good. Not bad enough to quit the QB, but not good enough to get anywhere. Just a shuffling of feet to nowhere for 2-3 more years.
-- Allen Lazard (3-103-1/3) is the 2nd-best receiver on the Packers, right? You see it? You see what I’ve seen all year back to the preseason?
Lazard made a beautiful diving catch for 43 yards early in the game. Soon after he caught a 37-yard TD pass. And then he doesn’t see a target for like 20+ minutes. Then he makes a huge 20+ yard catch on 3rd & long…and then no more targets. He was open several times, but Aaron Rodgers is fixated on Davante Adams (6-64-2/10).
The fact that Lazard’s workload/targets aren’t growing…makes me concerned for this offense, and for Rodgers’s game this year. It’s been a very weak offense except when playing bottom of the barrel pass defenses…and Rodgers’ output follows that trend.
Lazard has star potential…worried he won’t fully get to it in this declining passing game.
-- Kaden Smith (6-70-0/8) had another solid game, but Evan Engram is coming back. Hopefully, Engram gets the kinda work/targets Smith has gotten the last two weeks. But Engram also draws real coverage…and Smith kinda left alone a lot.
I’m not sure Engram really will be active this week, we’ll see.
*Next Week 14 Projections will be Saturday 2nd-half of dayET*
-- I love the connection between Sterling Shepard (3-40-1/6) and Daniel Jones. We haven’t fully enjoyed it because Shepard has missed so much time. Now, here comes Eli…but Eli and Shepard are tight too.
Remember, Eli started the first two games, and Golden Tate was suspended then. Then Eli was benched. There hasn’t been much Eli-Tate time, not like the years of Eli-Shepard. So, I like Shepard with Eli Week 14.
-- Saquon Barkley (19-83-0, 3-32-0/7) is now #13 in PPR PPG YTD and #16 in non-PPR…and getting worse as the season goes along. He did not live up to his #1 overall redraft pick status. But he’ll probably be top 3 ADP again next season.
The slam dunk, consensus #1 overall redraft pick is like a Madden curse…
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = A Jones
27 = Jamaal W
51 = Adams
41 = Allison
36 = Lazard
17 = MVS
14 = Kumerow