2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Texans 28, Patriots 22
The final score was closer than the game really was. This was a clear, resounding victory by the Texans. This game was 28-9 Houston with 3+ minutes left. A late frenzy made it look closer.
The Texans played well and inspired but they weren’t awesome…just very good and quick/spirited. That’s all it takes to beat the Patriots these days. I say, the Patriots dynasty is dead. It died the night of the Ravens game. It died more here.
The days of saying, “Yeah, but the Patriots will find a way.” I think it’s time to put that thinking away. The O-Line has sustained too many injuries. Brady is slipping to ‘good’ not great. They have no kicking game. They are overrated-good on defense (the schedule made them better than they are, statistically).
The most telling thing about the Patriots for me – you know who is beating the Patriots now? Good NFL teams with experienced coaches who have played the Patriots a bunch the last 1-2 years. Dallas craps their pants going to play NE this season. So does Cleveland. The Eagles falter (no Nick Foles to save them). But Baltimore is not only not intimidated, they hate the Patriots more than any team in the league. Buffalo has no fear of New England at all…the Bills, under McDermott, always line up and fight them. Houston has played them tough in the regular season three years in a row.
What do those three teams (BAL, BUF, HOU) just mentioned have in common? Beat the brakes off the Patriots this season, except the Bills who played with/ahead of NE but were robbed earlier in the season. You know who else has a good team with an experienced coach and is used to playing the Patriots – Kansas City…and they go to NE this week. I think the Chiefs will join the crowd and whack the Pats. Week 16, I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo drops New England and makes the AFC East a race to the end. I’d project the Patriots to lose to KC, fall to 10-3 and then win out to go 13-3 and be the #2 seed. Hard to call Buffalo going to Foxboro and beating the Patriots Week 16, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Houston took control of its destiny with a resounding defeat of New England. They are 8-4 and have two games left with Tennessee. They can split those two games and finish 11-5 and win the AFC South going away, which I believe they will.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My biggest takeaway from this game was seeing how Duke Johnson (9-36-0, 5-65-1/6) is becoming the X-Factor in this offense. He’s slowly transitioning from ‘getting some touches’ or ‘3rd-down back’ to the real weapon out of the backfield.
Four TDs his last 7 games.
3.7 rec. (4.7 targets) per game the last five games. 61.3 total yards per game the past 4 games.
And they are just scratching the surface. I think it’s starting to dawn on them that he’s the missing link to make this offense purr a little more. They don’t need to be a power run team, they should be a Fastbreak offense with Deshaun Watson, and Duke as one of the receiving threats/check downs/weapons/mismatches.
Duke can be their James White (14-79-0, 8-98-2/11) only better. And speaking of White…if the Pats are going to play catch-up in games, then White is going to be a solid RB1.5 in PPR again.
The last 4 weeks for James White…
In sluggish drubbings of PHI and DAL = 17 touches, 35 total yards, 5 catches, 0 TDs.
In chasing BAL and HOU in losses = 39 touches, 251 total yards, 10 catches, 3 TDs
Which do you think it will be against KC this week?
-- Will Fuller (2-8-0/2) has played 9 games this season and scored 11+ PPR points in a game twice. Seven times he’s been a weak-to-bad FF start.
There is no real rhyme or reason to his pattern of performance…he is who he is – an erratic fantasy WR who burns you more times than not.
-- Who is Brady throwing to when Edelman is covered?
He certainly is not getting Sanu-Dorsett-Meyers-Harry over. You can't trust any of them.
N’Keal Harry (0-0-0/1) had one target -- he was beaten to a spot by a DB early in the game and a pick happened…and Brady was done with him.
Jakobi Meyers (3-46-0/7) seemed like his next best/favorite option. Meyers was left open a bunch and lost 2-3 catches reversed via offensive penalties. But I have no idea who you could trust Meyers any given week…he’s not that great.
It’s Edelman-White and then a mystery for Brady…Meyers seemed to be more that guy with Dorsett.
-- Tom Brady’s (24-47 for 326 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) Comp. Pct. the last five games…
117 completions, 213 attempts = 54.9%.
His TD passes in games since Week 6: 0-1-2-1-0-1-3…and this three TD game here was achieved late and a bit lucky.
Whether it’s Brady, the O-Line, the receivers or all of the above…we’re watching the real fade of Brady, and probably his last season…by his choice.
-- You can’t trust the Patriots-DST this week v. KC, but then we’re back on with @CIN, BUF the following two weeks. The Patriots defense has been exposed, but against Dalton-Allen it will be back to its comfort zone.
-- Very quietly Houston DE Jacob Martin (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB hits) is heating up. He’s the guy who was acquired in the Clowney trade…and he has 2.5 sacks the last two weeks of increased play with J.J. Watt out.
Clowney has 3.0 sacks this season, Martin has 2.5 sacks the past two games playing lesser snaps. Martin is a good athlete and interesting pass rush prospect.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Duke
21 = Hyde
41 = Fells
31 = Akins
14 = J Thomas
67 = J White
15 = Michel
79 = Edelman
61 = Dorsett
60 = Meyers
22 = Harry
19 = Sanu