2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Titans 31, Colts 17
Tennessee has won five of their last 6 games, all with Ryan Tannehill starting. They scored 34 points in this game and went to a good team’s house and beat them by 14. The Titans are playing very good football, but not as great as we might think…and this game is the epitome of the run the Titans have been on.
The Titans fumbled the first play of the game and set up an easy early drive TD for Indy. Tennessee answered right back to tie it 7-7. Then a back-and-forth of nothing broke out the rest of the 1st-half. Tennessee couldn’t move the ball. Indy was moving into scoring position, but Adam Vinatieri shanked a long FG-attempt, then had one blocked (that was kicked way too low), and finally he connected on one…a 10-7 lead for Indy at the half that could’ve been 16-7.
The Colts came out of halftime and waltzed right down the field and scored a TD, taking a 17-7 lead that could’ve been 23-7 at least -- through 2.5 quarters the Colts were the best team here. The Titans would then outscore the Colts 24-0 from there and win the game convincingly.
It wasn’t all that convincing…the score was 17-17 with 5+ minutes left as the Colts AGAIN lined up for a field goal – it was kicked low AGAIN and blocked and returned for a TD. Titans take their first lead 24-17. They picked Indy the next drive to set up another score and suddenly a game the Colts controlled most of…the Titans were blowing them out. It wasn’t really the case, but it counts that way in the scorebook.
The Colts are now 6-6…a decision to dump Adam Vinatieri in the preseason away from being 8-4 or better. A great coaching job and solid personnel stocking of talent and nice adjustments due to all the injuries season, a division title chance…all thrown away because of loyalty to a failing kicker. That’s why I’ve said for several years that Justin Tucker is one of the 10 best/most important/most valuable players in football (and undervalued in fantasy as well). If Indy trots out Adam Vinatieri for another game, they will likely lose one more and season over for the playoffs. Ditching Vinatieri could save their season, but they won’t do it willingly…and, thus, get what they deserve. If they drop Vinatieri right now, 9-7 and a wild card is possible. Stick with Vinatieri and they will probably lose to Tampa Bay this week and effectively kill their playoff chances.
The Titans are looking great for the playoffs or a division title…they are 7-5, one game back of Houston and still have to play them twice. The Titans have a lot of control over their fate. Tennessee’s season might come down to this week against Oakland…a loss would kill because it would give the Raiders a playoff edge over Tennessee and Indy for the wild card (having beaten them both). A loss this week by the Titans would drift them away from the AFC South title as well. Tennessee could go from the ‘it’ team today to fading if they lose to Oakland, fall to 7-6 with HOU-NO-HOU to the finish. We see an equal chance at 8-8 or 9-7 for Tennessee. Everything for them depends upon the Oakland game, which I believe they will lose if Adoree Jackson is out.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Well, that was a fun one-week ride with Jonathan Williams (11-47-0, 2-9-0/3) as the next great fantasy RB. This is a very weird NFL/FF season. Has there been a backup RB takeover the starting job from the failing starter? Or even take the job from a couple week missing starter due to injury? Backup RBs have not been sustainable/worth the effort in 2019, a big change from the past.
Devin Singletary is the only one, no? The one place where a backup just rose up and took the job and has been consistently good for the NFL/FF. He’s all that comes to mind for me right now.
I wouldn’t trust Jordan Wilkins (11-47-0, 2-9-0/3) either. The Colts play the Bucs Week 14, who shutdown RBs as it is – plus, Marlon Mack might be back.
-- Since Week 7, his run as a starter, Ryan Tannehill (17-22 for 182 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) is the #5 QB in PPG fantasy scoring. Ahead of Watson, Mahomes, Murray among others.
Fantasy Football is an amazing puzzle to play with. So many twists and turns.
Tannehill has to be a top 5 vote for MVP at this point, no?
Solid schedule the next two weeks for FF…@OAK, HOU.
-- I thought A.J. Brown (3-45-0/4) was primed for a big game against Indy being Tannehill’s #1 target…which he was the #1 target here, but that means 4 targets in a game in this offense -- and that’s not good for fantasy. I’d rather roll with James Washington or many other not-#1 WRs, but ones who will get 2x the targets in a heavy passing game.
-- Zach Pascal (7-109-0/10) came out of hiding this week. He’s been so bad as the #1 WR with Hilton-Campbell out…the fact he did so well here, might be a sign of issues with the Titans secondary dealing with injuries and the loss of Adoree Jackson in this game.
If Adoree is out vs. Oakland…might be very good for Carr-Tyrell-Waller.
Jack Doyle (6-73-1/11) popped here too…so, Waller could be terrific this week v. TEN.
-- Two off-the-grid WRs in this game to note…
Titans WR Kalif Raymond (1-40-1/1) caught a 40-yard TD late in the game to seal up the win. His 2nd big play over the past few weeks.
He’s a 5’8”/180 grinder/NFL journeyman who played at Holy Cross as a WR, and was very productive there and ran a 4.39 40-time at this Pro Day back in 2016. He’s got a Marvin Hall type look…not a counted on WR, but sneaks in for 10-20 snaps and gets a shot at a big play here and there.
Colts rookie UDFA WR Ashton Dulin (1-13-0/1) got a bubble screen in this game and looked really good with it. He caught my eye in the preseason and does every time he gets a touch in the regular season. He’s got a very nice burst/pop in his step. 2019 is not his time, but possibly is a player with the 2020-2021 Colts as part of a WR trio with him and Parris Campbell with quite a show on turf possible if they get a high-end QB ahead.
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.
-- The Colts picked up PK Chase McLaughlin off waivers this week. Adam Vinatieri is hurt and might miss the game/has the perfect excuse for the Colts to bail.
McLaughlin is a rookie kicker who was a touch erratic in his Chargers run for 4 games, and then was better with the 49ers filling in for Robbie Gould for a few games. He’s 15-of-15 on XPs and 7-of-7 on FGs under 40-yards this season but 6-of-10 on 40+ yard FGs, but most of those misses were with LAC not his recent SF run.
A kicker with some bumps and bruises experience going to kick in a dome tow of the next 3 weeks – IF he is the new kicker.
Just noting for those in DEEP leagues looking for kickers – but he also upgrades the Colts offense/point output potential as well for handicapping, opposing DSTs, etc.
Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Pascal
65 = Marcus Johnson
39 = Dulin
01 = Rogers (hurt 1st play)
66 = Doyle
15 = Alie-Cox
12 = Ross Travis
44 = D Henry
11 = Dion Lewis
16 = Kalif Raymond