2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – 49ers 48, Saints 46
This game speaks for itself. You either saw it for yourself or were bombarded with the highlights/commentary all Sunday/week. It was a heavyweight fight of offense. There were questionable referee calls and crazy moments, either team was worthy of winning. The 49ers got a stroke of luck in the end and they won.
After it was over, all I could think was…where was this supposed great 49ers’ defense?
Other than that, I agree with everything said about it – great show, great offense, fun to watch, one team won and it was critical for seeding and everything else…and the other lost and has to feel bad about it. Nothing else changed in the world except the 49ers have a clearer path to the NFC West and #1 seed now.
The 49ers are 11-2, but they are not out of the woods yet. They should beat ATL this week, and then it’s LAR and @SEA to finish…they could win them both, split, or lose both of those games. I think they are catching LAR at the wrong time and will lose Week 16 and go to Seattle 12-3, and you have to project them to lose that one on the road (maybe) and fall to 12-4.
If that’s really what happens, SF fallas to 12-4 and the wild card – then it means 13-3 Seattle wins the NFC West and #1 seed…maybe. Seattle lost to the Saints, so New Orleans is hoping for this 49ers fall late and that they get to 13-3 with Seattle (not SF) as well. So much drama left, but I could see SF going 14-2 and are the #1 seed as much as they wind up 12-4 and the top wild card. They’ve got a lot of injuries they are dealing with.
Can the Saints get to 13-3? They’d have to win out against IND, @TEN, @CAR. Very possible, but that TEN game outdoors in December – not good. And I don’t think the Saints are ‘great’ where you just assume that they blow past any other good team. We’re projecting the Saints 12-4 and the #2 seed.
It’s all still up for grabs in the NFC between SF-NO-SEA…and GB-MIN.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It looks like, from the snaps, Raheem Mostert (10-69-1, 2-40-1/2) is the new ‘favorite’ RB in the Shanahan stable. Mostert played 40 snaps to Matt Breida’s 12 snaps (6-54-0).
Mostert looks terrific…and playing like he always does…like his life depends upon it. I just know this…Breida wasn’t in as much as I expected, but when he was in -- he was carrying the ball (12 snaps, 6 carries), and he looked really good/fresh.
Just note…Shanny loves Breida, and if Breida warms up this week…you could get a shock Breida performance better than that of Mostert, when for weeks Mostert has been the guy.
-- Emmanuel Sanders (7-157-1/9) looks healthy and back to normal. He works so very with Jimmy Garoppolo (26-35 for 349 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) – and JG looks so much better lately too. I thought maybe it was just the Arizona factor/boost, but I think his WRs are coming along and the addition of Sanders makes a huge difference.
But I’m really blown away by how well Deebo Samuel (5-76-0/8, 2-33-0) is working. Near the goal line, the 49ers tried to get scores to Deebo twice on a quick slant one time and later a bubble screen set up. He almost added two more TDs to his 2019 tally in this game. Jimmy G’s ‘guy’ is Deebo Samuel, and Samuel is talented…and now gaining confidence.
Deebo has become like if Robert Woods had the body of a running back.
-- Tre’Quan Smith (2-29-1/4) didn’t get his first catch until 2+ minutes left in the game. His next/last catch after that was a little crosser and catch and then a brilliant breaking of tackles and what was thought to be the game-winning TD. Great individual effort.
Tre’Quan has 2 TDs in his last three games, but is playing about 75% of the snaps but only seeing 2-4 targets…not enough to get excited about, but a little birdie told me to watch out for a surprising shift of attention/extra work with Tre’Quan this week vs. Indy, and going forward. Useful for DFS or deep-deep roster plays this week?
-- Alvin Kamara (13-25-0, 4-18-0/6) just participated in an important showcase game that yielded 94 points of offense…and Kamara extended his scoreless streak to 8 games. He accounted for 43 yards of offense in this explosion.
Everything looks fine with him…except his FF numbers.
Since Week 4, Kamara is behind Latavius Murray in non-PPR PPG and AK isn’t even in the top 30 among RBs in PPG in non-PPR in that span. All three Arizona RBs are ahead of Kamara in non-PPR PPG in that span.
In PPR PPG, AK’s fallen out of the top 12 since Week 4…he’s #14. For the full season, Kamara is still #9 in PPR PPG among RBs, but it was a blazing start and dry spell after that.
-- Since Week 9, Jimmy Garoppolo is the #7 QB in fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD). He just moved ahead of #8 Kyler, and #9 Deshaun, and #10 Mahomes, and #15 Russell Wilson in that time frame.
He faces the fading defense of Atlanta this week.
With his performance here, Drew Brees (29-40 for 349 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT) moved just ahead of Jimmy G. in that ‘since Week 9’ time span…he’s #6. He faces a dying Indy team indoors this week.
Speaking of QBs, Taysom Hill (5-13-0, 1-12-0/1) played a season high 28 snaps and carried the ball a season high 5 times. Between the rise of Lamar Jackson-style and the recent failures of Alvin Kamara…Hill is getting more and more work.
-- I thought the 49ers had this unstoppable defense?
Points allowed in their last six games: 25-27-26-8-20-46.
Teams are running the ball all over them now…10 straight 100+ yard tallies for opponents. They have 1 sack total the last two weeks. Their schedule has also been a lot more difficult…playing 10+ win teams in four of their last 5 games. They get a break with Atlanta this week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Kamara
24 = Latavius
28 = Taysom
40 = Mostert
12 = Breida
11 = Coleman