2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Broncos 38, Texans 24
This game was 31-3 at one point for the Broncos. It ended mercifully at 38-24.
Everyone was shocked and amazed at this, which seems reasonable to feel…Denver, of all teams, drops 31 points on Houston in 35 minutes of play at Houston in a critical game for the Texans?
This was the type of game that could happen to any NFL team…it’s what makes the NFL great week-to-week. Denver played well, good enough to win…but they had to be the luckiest team in the NFL this week. They were due for it because they’ve been so unlucky this season, but the first drive/TD pass…ill-advised, covered receiver but the pass sails right through and then Noah Fant makes a remarkable catch. The following drive, Houston gets picked off but as the defender is getting tackled, and everyone is slowing down for the expected end of the play…he pitches it to a DB who then races for a 70-yard return TD.
A game that should’ve started out 3-3, ended up 14-0 Denver…and the momentum turned, and it kept getting worse from there. Every 3rd-down and long, Drew Lock seemed to hit in on deep prayers answered. He threw approx. five passes that should’ve been picked but were probably 4-for-5 for 100+ yards and a TD in the real results.
It was just one of those games for Houston. Bad time for it too.
The Texans lose their cushion over Tennessee with this loss, falling to 8-5 and a tie with the Texans. Houston has the inside path to the division – they just need to split with Tennessee and then their other game in between the two Tennessee affairs is at Tampa Bay, while the Titans host the Saints. The edge the final three games is with Houston, but it’s by no means clear and obvious. I’ll project a Houston 10-6 finish, with the Tennessee split of their two games ahead…and the Texans win the AFC South.
Denver is now 5-8. They should be 7-6 and in the playoff hunt, but they’ve been hard luck/last second losers on 3-4 separate occasions. If they can beat KC this week, not out of the question, then they could win out and finish 8-8. They will likely wind up 7-9.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Most all of my player notes here pertain to Drew Lock (22-27 for 309 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…
1) Many lucky throws here. Very lucky he didn’t have 2-5 picks in this game. He’s been flirting with danger for weeks…I think the ‘bad’ game is coming within the next two weeks.
2) Lock is not playing skittish or in fear. Quite the contrary…he’s playing confident/borderline cocky, and it’s going to get him in trouble ahead. He thinks this is too easy, because it has been so far…and that’s his M.O. for me – too cool gambler, that once things turn on him, the throws stop sailing through unbelievably…he’ll implode on himself under all the criticism.
Ugly days are ahead, but so far he’s avoided it.
The Chiefs-DST may be the beneficiaries Week 15.
-- I worry that the ugly days ahead are going to affect Courtland Sutton (5-34-0/7) too hard for FF purposes to finish 2019.
I mean, Sutton’s the greatest and he just needs passes flung to him and he’ll do the rest…but, 5 and 7 targets in two games with Lock starting, 73 and 34 yards. He got 2 TDs Week 13 to make it work but no TDs here.
I like fantasy WRs who are working with clicking offenses in good situations.
This week, we get ready-to-fail Lock, in the cold, on the road versus and emerging KC defense.
I got a bad feeling about this…
But we’re really at the point of starting Sutton and praying every week, unless you got real, viable other options.
-- Noah Fant (4-113-1/4) flashed his all-star FF skills in this game. Great TD grabs, wonderful short catch and bully runs after the catch. He was awesome, and then he got hurt…and he’s questionable for Week 15.
If Fant is out, that hurts Lock and it hurts Sutton. And I think Fant is going to be out, but we’ll see.
A healthy Fant is a TE1 this week. He’s looking better and better the last few games, really starting to play with confidence.
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.
-- Will Carlos Hyde (14-73-0, 2-5-0/3) ever have a good FF game again this season?
He’s scored 1 TD his last 7 games and rushed for more than 75 yards in a game twice in that span. He’s having the same game every week…10-15 carries, 60-80 yards, no TDs…and a catch.
With the money on the line, I hope you have better options…but he is getting the touches and is due for a short score.
-- Duke Johnson’s (6-40-0/8, 1-5-0) target counts and pass game activity are rising the last few weeks. Week 13 was a season-high 6 targets and then he set a new season-high here with 8 targets.
I’d play Duke over Hyde in a week, just hoping for that Duke Johnson poor man’s James White type of game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Akins
42 = Fells
07 = J Thomas
40 = Hyde
39 = Duke
31 = Lindsay
27 = Royce F