2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Buccaneers 38, Colts 35
I don’t know how Jameis does it. I don’t know how Tampa Bay won this game. I don’t know how Bruce Arians keeps grinding wins. Perhaps, the problem is me.
Jameis threw three picks here, one on his first throw AGAIN, another for a pick-six later, and he flirted with another 3-4 picks on ill-advised throws…and, yet, he just goes back out there and throws a million more passes like nothing happened and numbers accumulate. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray cannot buy garbage time numbers at all.
Bruce Arians got fired in 2017, from Arizona, by going 8-8 that final season with no David Johnson (hurt) and having to work Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton the last half of the season for an injured Carson Palmer – winning four of his last 6 games with that motley crew. I think Arians is the last guy I’d want to be my coach, as a player or as an owner…but God Bless him, he wins games where teams seem dead…gets his teams to keep grinding more than not.
The Colts have a more serene, friendly, analytical head coach…and they’ve lost five of their last 6 games and could not realize their kicker was killing them all season. Arians is gruff, old-school and has won four of his last 5 games despite Winston throwing turnovers all the time. Both teams are now 6-7 on the season. They played head-to-head here, and the Colts were up by 10 or more points multiple times, including a 14-point lead halfway through the 3rd-quarter…and they could not put TB away. The Bucs somehow scored 17 unanswered and won a game they should’ve lost by 20+. Winner, in general…Arians over Reich?
Who can figure out the NFL? Isn’t it great!?!
The Bucs are 6-7 and not out of the playoff picture yet. If Minnesota loses out and TB wins out and the Bucs and Rams and Vikings (and maybe the Bears) are all 9-7…the Bucs have beaten the Rams among all the tiebreaker scenarios. I’m going to assume the Bucs will not win out, but I think they can get to 8-8 with or without Jameis Winston (hand injury questionable).
The Colts were once 5-2 and ruling the AFC South, so it seemed. They are now 6-7 and pretty much shot for the playoffs barring a miracle. They will finish 7-9/8-8. Had they ditched Vinatieri in the preseason, this season could’ve gone much differently.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jameis Winston (33-45 for 456 yards, 4 TDs/3 INTs)…yes, I was beaten by Jameis Winston in the fantasy playoffs in a few spots last week.
Week 13, Jameis throws for 268 yards and no TDs. Week 14, here, 456 passing yards and 4 TDs…just in time for people to face him in the FF playoffs. Nice.
This type of inconsistency prompted something curious I saw online -- an article with the headline…’Can Tampa Bay live with both Good Winston and Bad Winston?’
Can I ask, why are there no ‘Can the Bears live with both Good Trubisky and Bad Trubisky?’ articles and debates?
Trubisky has been ‘a winner’ in the NFL way more than Winston could ever dream of. Trubisky has a better arm, is more accurate, and is 10x the athlete/runner. Why must Trubisky be fired from the NFL immediately and never be allowed to start again, from a bad few weeks after breaking his collarbone, but Winston gets another pass because he racked 400+ yards on a lot of throws…maybe that 6th-season will be the charm? I mean, he just needs to clean up those turnovers, amiright?
Winston has thrown 81 interceptions in his 69 game NFL career. With a 27-40-0 record as a starter.
Winston has thrown 99 interceptions in his last 82 games combining his final year of college with the pros.
Winston has 23 picks this season. Trubisky has 27 picks in his entire three years in the NFL.
How long does one get to ‘clean things up?’ For Winston, apparently 5+ years and running. For Trubisky, he was done in Chicago 5-8 games into this season after winning a division the year prior.
Since Week 10, Jameis Winston is #2 in fantasy scoring among QBs PPG.
Whatever it is…it’s working for fantasy.
Oh, since Week 10…Trubisky is the #5 QB in fantasy scoring among QBs PPG. Man, I hate that guy. He sucks. Well behind Trubisky for FF scoring in that last five weeks critical stretch…Watson, Murray. Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Wilson, et al.
-- Mike Evans (1-61-1/2) got hurt on his 61-yard TD play, and he’ll miss the rest of the season. He ends the year as the current #3 non-PPR WR in fantasy PPG…just behind #2 Chris Godwin (Mike Thomas #1).
With Evans out, who picks up that opportunity in Tampa Bay?
Chris Godwin (7-91-9)? Nope, it probably hurt Godwin to some degree…no more Evans pulling away such attention.
Breshad Perriman (3-70-1/5)? It helps. It’s who I thought at first, on Monday. But, after rewatching this game, I changed my thinking from Perriman to…
Justin Watson (5-59-1/8). It was clear…this was the guy Winston was going to with purpose. Perriman made a 25+ yard play off a Winston scramble and panic pitch-pass to. Perriman caught a solid TD pass. It felt like Perriman was just a body out there, mostly ignored it seemed or not a primary or secondary look -- but in-game, it was Winston throwing to Watson like a real ace WR. Real routes, real throws, in trouble…go to Watson, and he’d get it. The more talented receiver in general is also Watson.
If Winston is OK this week (hand), I think Watson might be a top 25 WR for the week against Detroit…I’m completely convicted on his upside after watching it with my own two eyes on the rewatch. It felt like Perriman made sense after the live watch, but it’s clearly Watson now with a deeper look…although, Perriman could have his moment on a big play too.
O.J. Howard (4-73-0/5) has been moving up regardless. After cold nothing all season, the last two games: 4.5 catches (5.5 targets) for 67.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. His best back-to-back games of numbers and snaps all season.
-- If T.Y. Hilton is out, and Parris Campbell (3-12-0/5) is now gone…what do we do with the Indy WRs?
I guess, we have to re-trust Zach Pascal (5-74-1/9) again? He’s had two nice FF efforts the last two weeks and is clearly the guy Jacoby Brissett trusts. He has no choice. The last time we all got excited about Pascal, he took a dump for several weeks. Against Marcus Lattimore this week…not loving it.
Marcus Johnson (3-105-1/7) is OK, but had to rely on for FF.
Week 15…I’d go Justin Watson if Winston starting) over Pascal or Johnson.
Jack Doyle (2-27-0/6) is still a solid play, he just had one of those games at the wrong time.
-- Marlon Mack (13-38-1, 0-0-0/0) returned with a yawn. Keep in mind, he faced the #2 run defense of TB.
Sadly, he gets the #5 run defense of the Saints this week.
-- You might go Ronald Jones (11-36-0, 4-23-0/5) over Marlon Mack Week 15, if given the option. Considering Jones is facing the #23 run defense (and getting worse) of the Lions. Especially, if Winston’s hand is worse off than we know.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = OJ Howard
24 = Brate
30 = Barber
27 = Ron Jones
23 = Ogunbowale
74 = Godwin
65 = Perriman
43 = Watson
18 = Evans