2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Chiefs 23, Patriots 16
With this loss, in a heavyweight bout, all the talk is about whether the Patriots dynasty is over. We’re all so wanting to see this dynasty die (unless you’re a Pats fan) that anything that gives us hope we’re jumping on. We’ve talked/debated on sports shows about it so much over the year, at any sign of trouble, and it’s never come true…that’s it’s almost like -- Why bother talking about it anymore? Why are we wasting time trying to predict the end of the Patriots…especially when we’re always wrong?
Let me ask…don’t you think if this 2019 Patriots team falls short…that if Bill Belichick stays head coach…that the Patriots won’t rebuild a new dynasty in short order? Is not making the Super Bowl one year, but winning your division, etc., after making the last three Super Bowls really the end of a dynasty in the NFL? Do we expect you’re only a ‘dynasty’ if you win the Super Bowl every year?
It’s still the top NFL dynasty. If Tom Brady retires at the end of this season…it’s a dynasty being retooled. The only thing that can stop this dynasty is Bill Belichick retiring…then it would be over in two seconds, whether Brady is there or not.
The dynasty talk overlooks the issue at hand – this 2019 Patriots team is not the best team in the NFL. It might not be the best team in the AFC East. It’s not winning the Super Bowl. If it does – Bill Belichick should have his own section in the Hall of Fame as the single greatest ‘thing’ ever in the NFL. Belichick, Gale Sayers, and Jim Brown maybe having their own special area with secret access.
The Patriots have had too many injuries on the O-Line this season and Tom Brady is aging/mortal, and they are on their 47th kicker of the season. Bill Belichick’s 2019 season is a lot like some of our fantasy seasons in 2019…you might have had the best team to start the campaign, but then you lost too many players to injury in-game week-to-week to hurt wins/losses and then just had top players out for weeks.
Many of my dynasty teams, and yours, were built on some combo or all of Mahomes-Tyreek-David Johnson. We lost them in-game to injury on six separate occasions. Those three missed 9 games collectively so far this season + were lost in-game, early in six games combined – 15 devastating injury-related events combined…nearly 40% of their collective 14-game season-to-date season (42 games possible/total) affected between the three of them. If you had other infamous FFM’ers like Thielen and Engram and Kittle to go-with…then add them on top of all of this. With all that, dynasty or redraft, I wonder how the hell any of us got to the playoffs this season?
Same thing for New England…with losing chunks of their O-Line, Gronk retiring, long-time kicker lost for the season, Brady and Edelman playing through injury – how are the Patriots 10-3 and in the hunt for another AFC East title and possible #2 seed? It’s really a brilliant job by Belichick, that will get lost when the Patriots season fades away this year, short of the Super Bowl.
The Patriots will finish 12-4 at minimum. 13-3 at maximum…and that would give them the #2 seed. That Buffalo Week 16 game is big if the Bills beat the Steelers this week. However, assuming the Patriots will beat Cincy and Miami remaining on the schedule, they could lose to Buffalo and still win the AFC East. The AFC East is all but theirs…the Patriots bigger issue is winning out to get the #2 seed ahead of KC.
There is ‘dynasty over’ talk. There is ‘the refs screwed us’ talk. There is ‘we’re onto Cincinnati…with a film crew’ talk. It all takes away from the fact that the Chiefs went to Foxboro and won and a big game. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs won with a hampered Patrick Mahomes…that should be what scares everyone on the Patriots downfall being real or not…the Chiefs have Mahomes injury issues, no run game, a battered O-Line, secondary issues – and then just went to New England and kinda stepped on them and kept them down. This wasn’t the high-flying Chiefs rolling it up and outgunning the Pats. This was the Chiefs getting a lead, and the Patriots having several chances to tie/win and they just could get past a previously mocked Chiefs defense.
Eight weeks ago, we all wanted to fire the Chiefs defensive coordinator as we mocked their non-defense. At the same time, we were all trying to one-up each other on talking about historic the Patriots defense was. Today, the Chiefs defense is better than the Patriots…better pass rush talent, and better execution.
KC has winnable, but not easy games with DEN, @CHI, LAC. I’ll bet they have a letdown in one of them and finish 11-5…AFC West winners, but #3 seed…which means they are likely headed to New England in the 2nd-round, again. Anyone think they’ll beat Belichick twice in a row? If they don’t…isn’t the Patriots dynasty still intact/impressive, even if they then lose to Baltimore in the Final Four?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Patrick Mahomes (26-40 for 283 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) splits pre and post kneecap…
2.3 TDs/0.20 INTs, 350.7 yards per game, five 300+ yard games = Mahomes Wks 1-6
1.5 TDs/0.50 INTs, 271.5 yards per game, one 300+ yard game = Mahomes Wks 10-14
Mahomes went from the best in the game (6pts pass TD) to mere mortal/QB2/less than Tannehill since his return. If you built your team on Mahomes for 2019…you started hot and died to the finish, and may have lost the playoffs because of this FF dud, and are ready to make a bunch of proclamations about different FF things you’ll do in 2020…but your season is totally different if Mahomes is healthy all season.
-- The Mahomes issue drizzled down to Tyreek Hill (6-62-0/8), a player most all FFM’ers have, dynasty or redraft.
5.5 rec., 58.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the last two weeks in the time of critical FF need. Not bad, but not his normal.
You had Tyreek as a nuclear bomb FF weapon, and this season he…
-Left Week 1 early and killed your scoring, may have cost you a win right off the bat.
-Missed four games after that
-Returned, but with Matt Moore…capping some upside.
-Hamstring early-exit Week 11, costed some another game with a nice, fat zero.
How many games did you get full game, healthy Patrick Mahomes + Tyreek Hill playing a full game together in 2019?
Week 6 vs. HOU…5 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs.
How many times did you get full game Mahomes AND full game Tyreek, pre-or-post kneecap?
Tyreek’s numbers in those four games: 6.8 rec., 88.5 yards, 0.75 TDs…12.9 FF PPG, 19.7 PPR…which would be top 3 today on a PPG basis for PPR and non-PPR.
We got them together four times…and didn’t 9 times, so far.
For many of us, the autopsy of the 2019 season goes not much further than -- What if Mahomes and Tyreek stayed healthy together? The Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey teams got that edge…they haven’t missed a snap hardly. Mahomes-Tyreek people got that edge last year, and it was record-breaking in a lot of cases.
Fantasy Football is not easy…and the injury chaos is what makes it even more challenging. It keeps you on your toes every week, which is the charm of fantasy…reacting to adversity, trying to figure out who Diontae Johnson really is early in the season, or is Courtland Sutton ‘real’, or if Derrius Slayton gets the great matchup week, etc.
-- Do I think Tom Brady (19-36 for 169 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is shot?
1.1 TD passes per game in his last 8 games is telling me things are not great…
I’d say that Brady is still good, but he’s got a corrupted O-Line dinging him a bit. I think all the complaining about the WRs is a bit overblown about the WRs, unfair really.
So, you’re telling me WRs who have gotten open before in the NFL…Sanu, Dorsett – now they can’t get open? They magically forgot how to get open?
If Josh McDaniels is such an offensive wizard…why can’t he get previously talented WRs open now?
The game is a lot different when the QB has extra time to survey and throw (see: Kyler Murray). Because O-Line play is dying, the NFL game has to shift to quick passers and mobile QBs. Tom Brady is aging away right into an era not built for him. He’s going to leave at the perfect time, next year…the perfect NFL career, with the perfect NFL head coach, to a perfect supermodel wife and a perfect retirement life bank account. I’m not jealous.
This is Brady now, for 2019 FF…hurried and not great, statistically. Will be OK versus Cincy, and will get squashed to low output against Buffalo, again.
We blame the WRs when we don’t want to blame Brady, as Brady is doing, but there is some issue with fading Brady here and a lack of prime protection he’s used to.
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.
-- No Williams Bros. at RB for KC, so does LeSean McCoy (11-39-0, 1-4-0/3) step up? Nope.
Darwin Thompson (4-7-0, 4-36-0/5)? No, thanks.
Spencer Ware (5-11-0, 1-0-0/2)? Nope…he looks like he aged five years in the past year.
The fantasy RB from the KC backfield you want is ‘none’. Darwin over all of them (PPR), assuming Damien out, because the Chiefs should win their games ahead and have cushion to keep getting Thompson up to speed for the playoff run.
-- Sony Michel (5-8-0, 1-1-0/1) has died…6 games in a row without a TD. The Pats have been in tougher games, and when they are in trouble…they go to James White (6-33-0, 5-27-0/7). Michel is an RB3 at best, and White an RB1.5.
Facing Cincy, it might be a decent bounce back game for Michel.
-- You know there is deeper issues with the non-Edelman WRs other than ‘can’t get open’. I don’t buy that at all, but I know this – you want none of them for FF.
The targets to non-Edelman WRs this game are laughable:
3 = Meyers
2 = Dorsett
1 = Harry
1 = Sanu
-- Do you trust the Chiefs-DST now? They have held their last three opponents to 17-9-16 points…and all decent offenses they faced.
They’ve actually held five of their last 8 opponents to 20 or fewer points.
They have a great pass rush group and a developing secondary and a solid D-C. Facing Lock-Trubisky-Rivers(?) the next three weeks – you can trust them, I think.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = LaCosse
32 = Watson
66 = Edelman
39 = Sanu
38 = Meyers
33 = Dorsett
02 = Harry
31 = Ware
24 = McCoy
21 = Darwin Thompson