2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Jets 22, Dolphins 21
This was a fun game that nobody cared about. Two teams going nowhere but played like it meant everything. Neither of these teams are quitting on the season.
The Jets led 16-9 at the half in an ‘as expected’ clunky game with two bottom NFL teams. Ryan Fitzpatrick pulled the Dolphins back by his usual grittiness and Miami took a 21-19 lead with 1:33 remaining. The Jets drove down for a game winning FG attempt, aided by a very suspect pass interference call – the defender did interfere a bit early, but it was a pass that was not likely going to be caught because Sam Darnold threw it so far offline and the catch would have been 10 yards short of a 1st-down. It was challenged, reversed, set up the Jets with a 1st-down and helped the Jets win the game. What does it really matter…except I need the Jets to lose one more game to seal my ‘under’ bet on their win total for the season. One more loss locks it in. I think I get it Thursday…
The Jets are now (5-8) and are not likely to win another game this season (@BAL, PIT, BUF). They will finish 5-11 and be everyone in the media’s ‘hot pick’ for a wild card team in 2020.
Miami stays in the hunt for the #1 overall draft pick with this loss. They are 3-10, and need to lose out, including their Week 16 game vs. CIN, and then they need another Cincy loss…and then Miami leaps past the Bengals for the draft pick, but then the two-win Giants would be lurking…but Miami plays them Week 15…an NYG win there helps Miami really get into top draft position.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I watched all of Patrick Laird’s (15-48-0, 4-38-0/5) touches from this game, separately from the rewatch, one-after-another, to get a feel for how he did. He really played well in this game…he is Danny Woodhead-like all day. And Miami is not entertaining any other RB…it’s all on Laird.
A few notes on him here…
1) Ran the ball better than any Miami RB this season, but not great…just not much to compare too. He’s Woodhead…slithery.
2) The passing game was where I was impressed…a lot of him lining up five-wide and being a part of the pass game as a quasi-WR.
3) 59 snaps played, 13 for Gaskin…Zach Zenner cut this week. It’s all Laird from here.
4) Miami has @NYG (#20 run defense) this week, and Cincy (#32 run defense) next week – that’s pretty sweet.
-- I thought the Dolphins had the worst backfield in the NFL, but the Jets may have caught them.
Le’Veon Bell (DNP) has been terrible most of the season. Much of that to do with the awful Jets’ O-Line/offense, but some I’m sure is Bell mailing it in as well. If I wasn’t sure, him out bowling Saturday night after he was declared not playing on Friday helped clue me in on the Le’Veon we’ve seen the past two years…going to suck money out of the NFL to the bitter end. It’s gone from a passion to a business. Big business.
Le’Veon has played/acted his way out of New York, as he wants. It will be framed as ‘Adam Gase never wanted him’, but in reality…this is Le’Veon taking their money and then acting his way out to become a free agent so he can go be a Patriot or Raven or whatever he wants. He’s stealing money from the NFL, and this Jets heist was huge…now, he can play for a title if he wants, money is not as big an issue. Or he just sucks money from the Raiders or Cardinals or Redskins or whomever he wants. Le’Veon is in control…he’s talking his way out of a situation, which is the new NFL – expensive stars easily talking their way off the team they don’t like this day/week/month for whatever reason.
Head coaches don’t like that, they don’t like the players having control, so they ditch these ‘stars’ the second they can. It’s why I think Baker Mayfield will be on the move soon. Coaches typically would rather lose with grinders than win with divas. It’s a fine line. Gase has seized total control of the Jets, so Le’Veon will be gone one way or the other.
I would not like to use Le’Veon Week 15 against the Ravens; I know that much. Gase might not even activate him this week or just make him inactive the next week, just to spite him/send a message to the team and get a look at younger players (Josh Adams, please).
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.
-- This game looked like a great matchup for Ryan Fitzpatrick (21-37 for 245 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 7-65-0) but, as he does, Fitz does the opposite of what you think each week.
Fitz has three of his last 5 games with zero TD passes in a game.
The Giants should be a great matchup too, but the Eagles struggled with NYG on MNF. The Giants have a lot of talent running in the secondary, but it’s young. Inexperienced, but talented…and trying to start their careers.
Fitz may enter Week 15 without DeVante Parker or Albert Wilson. Who does he turn to?
Allen Hurns (5-68-0/8) has been the name Fitzpatrick has spoken most highly of. The veteran WR will be his #1 look, I suspect.
But as teams descend coverage on Hurns, for that obvious reason, Isaiah Ford 6-92-0/9) comes into play as the only other alternative. Passes have to go somewhere? Ford is not great but terrible, but watching him this game with a career-high 9 targets…it’s like Russell Gage theory the past few weeks – he’s OK, and someone has to catch passes here? If Parker and Wilson are out…Ford is on the table as a PPR WR3 option/flier.
-- Isaiah Ford or Robby Anderson (7-116-1/11) Week 15? It might be Ford (or Hurns), if Parker-Wilson are out.
I love Robby, but BAL-PIT-BUF to the finish…umm, no thanks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Powell
23 = Ty Montgomery
59 = Laird
13 = Gaskin
57 = Hurns
55 = I Ford
18 = Parker
17 = Wilson
10 = M Hollins