2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Packers 20, Redskins 15
The Packers were big favorites in this game, and they won…but it was not impressive at all. There are teams on the rise right now like the Rams, the Bills, the Ravens. And then there are some fraud teams that have been very lucky to have a good record/standing YTD, like Dallas, Tennessee and Pittsburgh…but to me, the king of those teams is the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers offense is smoke and mirrors…a unit really struggling but have had so many favorable matchups it’s hiding the issues (like with NE and DAL this year). The defense has some talent but has holes and is a gambling unit that has saved some games late with the right gambles, but facing any real resistance they cannot stop good offenses. The Packers’ quality win of 2019 was barely beating KC with Matt Moore at QB and their opening day win over Chicago…an opening week event that has kinda stuck with everyone and continued this con.
I have a feeling they lose to Chicago this week and this entire season comes crumbling down as they then get smacked at Minnesota the following week. We see Green Bay 11-5, a wild card, and maybe getting bounced from the playoffs if the Rams win out.
Washington gets dealt their first loss in 3 games here. They’ve covered the spread in five of their last 7 games. It’s not a great team or a good team, but it’s ‘OK’…it has talent and it’s trying. It’s an Alex Smith healthy/never got hurt away from winning the NFC East this season, and probably last season. For all their woes and mocking…this isn’t a bad roster/team. They are not Giants-Bengals-Dolphins bad.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My biggest note this game…my guy Steven Sims (4-40-0/7) is basically a starter now. He played a season high 71% of the snaps here, but more importantly, he was tied for the most targets among the Redskins’ WR group in this game. And it wasn’t just a frenzied comeback attempt and he got a batch of junk targets. I’d dare say he was the main look for Haskins, because teams double his Terry McLaurin (4-57-1/7) desires. Sims had another target negated by a P.I. call, or he would have led all Washington WRs.
Sims was working like a true, underneath, important slot WR. He did well but had a couple of drops. I like him more in the deep ball and bubble game, but it’s nice to see they are getting him this kind of ‘real’ WR work. He’s a TD waiting to happen on every touch…one of the top ‘Tyreek-like’ things in the NFL.
He’s moving from deep-deep sleeper to more…not a crazy WR3.5/flex flier, and DFS play. Sims faces the Eagles this week, so…that’s not bad at all.
-- One of the reasons you might can trust Sims in a good matchup…Dwayne Haskins (16-27 for 170 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is playing better. He by no means should ever be an NFL starter/franchise QB, but it’s not like he didn’t mop the floor with CFB defenses at Ohio State. He was raised in the passer era. If you give him time, he can make some throws.
His first few starts, he was scared to death and looked lost. In this game, I saw the first time Haskins was comfortable in the pocket and making some multiple reads. There are tools here, but not quality ones…just not empty of tools. You see how Drew Lock is riding a wave of early confidence right now? Haskins could get on a roll like that…these new era passers, kids raised in the passer era – give them time and they will work it. The NFL is more like 7-on-7 with the rules in place…if a QB has time, they can look great. If they do not have time, even Tom Brady looks stupid.
-- Let’s move away from any Jamaal Williams (7-24-0, 0-0-0/1) might be useful because he gets touches week-to-week thoughts. I think the Packers’ offense senses it’s failing and in desperation they are going to go heavier Aaron Jones (16-134-1, 6-58-0/7) playmaking ability and throw that ‘split’ and ‘relief’ talk out the window.
-- With this game, Aaron Rodgers (18-28 for 193 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has fallen to #12 in QB PPG on the season, and on the verge of falling beyond the top 15.
TD passes in his last five games, in each game: 1-0-1-4-1.
Yards in those games: 161-233-104-243-195
This offense, this team, is dying right before our very eyes. Rodgers is going down with it…he has all his FF points in like two giant games against really bad secondaries. Aside from that, not much…a weak QB2.
-- Derrius Guice’s (5-42-0) stock was looking up, and then he had his knee hit funny and sprained his MCL…lost for the rest of the season. Two NFL seasons…five games played total. Two knee surgeries and then a sprained knee.
The Redskins have to draft or sign another RB to run with Guice in 2020…they can’t count on him, can they?
Note…Chris Thompson (7-43-0/8) returned from injury this game and like old times in the passing game – a team high 8 targets.
-- The Redskins did a great job of taking away Davante Adams (4-41-0/6) in this game. Like I’ve been saying for a few years – Quinton Dunbar is a great corner. Where was PFF with grading/finding that? I haven’t heard. I don’t subscribe, so I don’t know. I just know most players I don’t see it/get it on…PFF loves, so I assume vice-versa is true.
Can I just ask…What if PFF is terrible at their jobs and the entire NFL is being managed, for some teams, by PFF grading? I’m not saying they are terrible, because I don’t know…I just have anecdotal evidence – but we all just accept they know what they’re doing? The things that I know about how they do things…the potential for error is huge in judgements of things. Just because someone wears a lab coat on TV doesn’t make them a doctor. …if they have a stethoscope around their neck…then it does.
Any whooo… Watch the weather for CHI-GB Week 15. ‘Feels like’ near zero at kickoff has been the forecast but it’s warming a little tiny bit, which is huge for the passing game. Super frigid temps are not conducive for football scoring and FF activity. Especially with a sad Green Bay passing game this year as it is.
-- The Redskins defense has not allowed more than 24 points in a game in seven of their last 8 games…the Bill Callahan era. Six of their last 8 games holding opponents to 21 or fewer. They have not allowed a 300+ yard passer under Callahan.
This is not a bad team or a bad defense – and they face the terrible offense of the Philadelphia Eagles this week. Their ‘warm’ streak should continue.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = A Jones
25 = J Williams
50 = D Adams
34 = Allison
33 = Lazard
10 = MVS
60 = McLaurin
53 = Harmon
45 = Steven Sims
03 = Cam Sims
28 = AP
24 = C Thompson