2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Rams 28, Seahawks 12
This game was kinda over before it started. Seattle struck first, a 3-0 lead…then the Rams hammered the next 21 points and looked so good, so comfortable doing it that it was striking to anyone who watched. It’s like…where have these Rams been all year?
I had this as my #1 bet of the week, last week…take the Rams in a pick ‘em. Why? I was theorizing that the Rams had been getting hot/coming together for weeks…we just lost sight of it because the Ravens punished them in the midst of it, and then when the Rams whooped Arizona…we focused on why Arizona played so bad. We were losing sight of what was developing with the Rams.
The Rams lost a couple O-Lineman to injury several weeks ago, and then looked wobbly with their replacements and it felt like the Rams had too many injuries to deal with to succeed. Then, it turns out, the young replacement OLs may be better than the guys they replaced, and Jalen Ramsey started to get more integrated into the defense – and the Rams are peaking at just the right time (or a hair too late). Seattle just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The Rams are 8-5 and the hottest team in the NFC, maybe, but they need a ton of help to get to the playoffs. If they get there – watch out. First, the Rams need to win at least two of their next 3 games, which they can do pretty confidently if they beat Dallas this week. At SF Week 16 will be tough, the Arizona Week 17 is a win. The Rams might win 10 or 11 games by the end. They rip off three more in a row, quite possible, and they’d be 11-5, likely grabbing a wild card and would be super dangerous.
If the Rams are a 10-win team, they need some NFC team to fall to 10 wins with them…but it’s likely they’ll need 11 wins for the wild card considering Minnesota has 9 wins already and Seattle has 10 wins. If the Vikings only end up with 10 wins and the Rams beat Dallas as part of their 10 wins…the Rams have the better common opponent record. If the Rams get to 11 wins with Minnesota there as well…same deal, Rams tiebreaker win. The Rams are going to have to chase hard and get lucky to get in.
If the Rams get into a tie with Green Bay somehow…they’d beat them the same way with the tiebreaker IF the Rams beat Dallas. I’m guessing 10-win LAR will fall a game short of the playoffs, as a projection right now. 11-win LAR is possible, but a huge ask to win the next three in-a-row.
Seattle is 10-3…if they fall into a 10 or 11 win tie with the Rams…the Rams have the same edge over them, most likely (still some games to play out). Most likely Seattle wins 11-12 games and is the #1 wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Russell Wilson (22-36 for 245 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 5-28-0) has really cooled of late, but no one asks me about how afraid they are to start Wilson next week…everyone is crickets on him the past few weeks. Wilson just gets a pass.
In his last 4 games, Wilson has averaged 1.0 TD/1.0 INT with 239.3 passing yards per game and has no rushing TDs.
The last 4 weeks, Wilson is the #24 FF QB in PPG in that span (4pts per pass TD). Kyler is #10, Trubisky is #5…(I mention this for Jason Katz’s sake, among others).
Since Week 4, Wilson is the #7 FF QB in PPG…Kyler 0.8 PPG behind him.
Russell Wilson, to some degree, has become a myth we aren’t realizing is failing in fantasy of late. For the full season he is the #4 FF QB, he was great the first half but fading away as we go. He’s had one 300+ yard passing game since Week 4 this season. He has not rushed for a TD in his last 7 games.
-- Jared Goff (22-31 for 293 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT) had been struggling with his Comp. Pct. most of the season…flirting with under 60% the first 11 weeks. The last three games, he’s been 70% each game and has 2 TD passes in each of his last two games. As the Rams are heating up, so is Goff.
After what Mitch Trubisky did to Dallas last week…might Jared Goff be in a spot to pile it on as well this week at Dallas?
-- As the Rams heat up, as Goff gets more accurate…Todd Gurley (23-791, 4-34-0/4) is reestablishing as the workhorse, which includes more purposeful involvement in the passing game.
Gurley is going to be that late season RB that emerges, a la Derrick Henry 2018, to carry FF teams to the title.
19 or more carries in a game in three of his last 4 games.
9 TDs in his last 9 games.
-- Another thing I got right about this game ahead of it…there is something not-right about the Tyler Lockett (4-43-0/6) connection with Russell Wilson lately. But from the early note…some of that is the Seattle passing game has fallen down a well.
Lockett targets in a game since Week 4:
4-4-5-7-6-18-4-2-3-6…the 18 is such an outlier and we remember that big game -- but that drowns out the fact that Lockett is a guy getting 4-6 targets a game normally now. He’s turning into Curtis Samuel, without the running or occasional TDs.
I don’t know how you can trust him Week 15 at Carolina…if you have legit other options. He’s certainly due for a pop, though.
-- Now that Rashaad Penny (1-16-0/1) is gone with an untimely ACL (just as his career was getting some momentum the last few weeks), it’s all Chris Carson (15-76-0, 3-15-0/4) all the time again. A great matchup with Carolina this week…he could be the #1 RB in FF this week.
‘Untimely’ describes Rashaad Penny’s entire NFL journey so far.
-- I absolutely did not think the Rams were serious with Tyler Higbee (7-116-0/11) usage going forward after the big Arizona Week 13…because everyone kills Arizona with TEs, and Higbee has NEVER really been used in the pass game that much.
Well, I was wrong. Higbee looked fantastic in this game…better than his Week 13 pop vs. Arizona. I sat there thinking – Why hasn’t McVay used him in the passing game more, for terrible hands, overrated Gerald Everett?
It’s game-on with Higbee now. I missed it. I went with Jack Doyle in that race of hot/sudden TEs Week 13-14. And that helped burn me in Week 14.
-- Robert Woods (7-98-1/9) is back in a major way. After dying off Weeks 1-8, Woods has been straight fire since Week 10/returning from the personal issue missed game/his last 4 games: 8.3 rec. (12.3 targets), 115.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game…he’s literally saved some of my FF teams the last few weeks at just the right time.
Since Week 10, Woods is the #2 WR in all of fantasy…only Michael Thomas has been better. That’s amazing. Great to see him rise back up.
In the preseason, I wrote about how Robert Woods was the cheaper version of Keenan Allen for fantasy teams. That looked stupid the first half of the NFL season, but now YTD in PPR…Allen is #14 in PPG this season among WRs, and Woods #16 and closing fast.
-- Can you trust the Seattle-DST this week against Carolina? I think so. Seattle’s been giving up points, but usually to good-great offenses/QBs…which is what they’ve faced most of this season, I projected it was the worst schedule for any DST this season, and it’s been true.
However, Kyle Allen Week 15 is the easiest matchup they will have had all season.
The Seahawks-DST has averaged 3.3 turnovers per game the past 4 games. Only the Steelers (33) and the Patriots (31) have more turnovers created than Seattle (29) this season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Gurley
14 = Brown
00 = Henderson
55 = Carson
11 = Prosise
69 = Woods
46 = JReyn
27 = Cooks
20 = Kupp (that’s what the report says)