2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Bucs 38, Lions 17
This game was 24-17 Tampa Bay with 5+ minutes remaining and the Lions with the ball. For all the Bucs excitement and how much they killed the hapless Lions…Detroit was closing in on potential tie with 5+ minutes left. Tampa Bay was the better team, but this game was in jeopardy late, after the Bucs started with a 21-0 lead. It was no great win, but it was a win.
With this win, the Bucs rise to 7-7…7-1 against non-playoff teams. 0-6 against playoff teams (as of today). The classic ‘mediocre’ or ‘tweener’ team. They play Houston this week…which by the trend means a loss and then finish with Atlanta, which means a win to finish 8-8.
The Lions are 3-10-1…losers of seven in-a-row and lost 10 of their last 11 games. Not good. The Lions were 3-4-1 when Matt Stafford went down, so using that as an excuse…I think Matt Patricia deserves one more season to see what he brings to the table. The Lions will likely wind up 3-12-1 on a 9-game losing streak but there’s a chance they get sick of the losing and rise up to play energized Week 16 at Denver and maybe steal a win.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Well, I wish I would have stuck with my first intuition…the easier one: Breshad Perriman (5-113-3/6) as the winner of the Mike-Evans-is-out sweepstakes.
I watched Week 14, when Evans went out after his long TD/injury. In that game, Justin Watson (2-17-0/2) popped in as a replacement, got more targets than (the starter) Perriman and the connection between Winston-Watson was wonderful.
I should’ve known, Jameis would find new ways to screw me for being so ‘anti’ him all these years…beating me in the FF playoffs the last two weeks and now this.
I still see Perriman as just ‘there’ in this offense. I don’t see a real connection. I don’t see Winston in trouble and just flinging prayers his way because he’s so key to Winston’s heart Like with Evans) or playing pitch-and-catch with him (like he does Godwin). Perriman got open, only had six targets as a ‘primary’ – but they were ‘winning’ targets for fantasy.
Meanwhile, Watson got mostly ignored here…after being so connected (seemingly) the prior game.
Knowing Winston, we’ll all plow into Perriman this week…and Watson will rule.
I feel like this entire season I’ve been one week early or one week late on too many this-or-that decisions and it cost me a game or two, and that meant playoffs or not, BYE week earned or not or the WR3/RB3/Flex players. It’s one of my study/examination points of 2019 to research in 2020…was 2019 an aberration or some new trending to consider.
I knew when Scotty Miller (3-49-1/3) got active for this game…Watson was at-risk, and I started taking Watson’s numbers down and no longer excitedly endorsing him on Sunday morning. Miller did start with Godwin-Perriman, and he’s neat/good and got a sweet TD, but then he got hurt. Godwin and Miller both went down…and assuming they are out Week 16, the door is open for Watson…because Perriman will draw primary coverage.
-- The real winner of the TB injury-fest at WR might be suddenly relevant O.J. Howard (4-46-0/8). Benched just a few weeks ago and having a dreadful season, Howard has averaged 4.3 rec. (6.3 targets), 60.0 yards per game, and 0.0 TDs per game the past 3 weeks.
OJH has one…one TD this season.
2020 Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball Subscriptions Coming Soon
It’s almost time for season #2 of our 2018 debut subscription…Dynasty Offseason.
I created Dynasty offseason as a way to communicate rankings/valuations on (500+) existing players (and also 400+ IDPs) for Dynasty and Keeper planning purposes (trades, etc.) as well as getting the jump on Best Ball/MFL drafts that begin in February and run all the rest of the year.
The fastest growing success percentage/money earning with FFM scouting/rankings/etc. is in those Best Ball/MFLs – draft a deep roster and forget it until the season begins, and then just watch the results…no lineup settings, no trading. Just pay to compete, out-draft everyone else, and try and cash in on our early/better read on things.
Dynasty Offseason subscriptions will be available when College Football Metrics begins (mid-Jan.), you can purchase as a combo or just individually the one you want/need. However, the Dynasty Offseason articles, advice, rankings, etc., will not kickoff until right after the Super Bowl…and then we pile in material daily/weekly until opening day of the new NFL season.
If you were not a part of the Dynasty Offseason program last year, I will have more details on it on my playoff game recaps in 2020 and some additional explanation on Best Ball/MFL leagues, how to get started in them, how they work, etc. – if you’re not doing Best Ball/MFLs…you are missing out. I’ll explain more In January.
-- UDFA Rookie RB Wes Hills (10-21-2) had an NFL moment he’ll be telling his grandkids about (2 TDs in a game, in his NFL debut)…because I don’t think he’ll ever top this. Not sure he’ll ever see another touch in the NFL again, honestly.
Very big, very slow…just the way the Lions’ O-C likes his RB weapons. But Kerryon Johnson will be back this week, and he’s healthy so buh-bye Hills.
This also lets you know where the Lions’ mindset is at with Ty Johnson (2-3-0, 4-17-0/5). I don’t know, with TY, if the problem is the O-Line/run game is so bad for every RB that has been here this season or if Ty is just a great athlete with poor feel/vision for playing RB at the NFL level. I’ve started to bail on him/downgrade his Dynasty Stash ranking/valuation.
-- Up until four weeks ago, Jameis Winston (28-42 for 458 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) was a guy who was (3-7) record as a starter with 21 TDs/18 INTs and was a universal NFL joke for the word turnovers.
Now, he’s won four straight games with 11 TDs/6 INTs and had back-to-back 400+ yard games and…and NOW he’s being debated as a legit QB who has earned a long-term deal among the media. Because he’s beaten ATL, JAX, IND, DET and looked good against two of them – now, everything is all fixed.
This is NFL football analysis…whatever just happened is reality, with the skewed mindset of the professional analysts. Heck, they’ve even backed off (slightly) on saying Mitch Trubisky is the worst. Why? Because he had a few good games in a row and one of them was on a national TV game.
I just listened to an analyst today mock Trubisky for having a good run against bad teams and that he would still never make it in the NFL as a franchise starter, in their opinion. Two minutes later, he was throwing his hands up and saying “I guess you sign Winston for more years because who else could you find better? And if he just cleans up those turnovers…” I swear, that was said AGAIN. Trubisky’s success is because of Nagy and schedule. Winston’s success against IND and DET (the #21 and #31 pass defenses in the league) is chalked up to…I guess Winston is ‘getting it’ now.
Whatever it is…Winston is killing it right now. I also know this, whenever Winston gets on a roll…he comes crashing down hard to kill it off when you least expect it. He’s been amazing the last two weeks…watch him burn his owners in the title game this week.
-- Speaking of players who have mini-hot flashes, suck you in, and then burn you -- Danny Amendola (8-102-0/13) is drawing attention again with great numbers here. For Week 16, I fear…
1) The inevitable downturn. He’s played 13 games this season, four worth a damn for FF and 9 nothing games. The odds are against you in general.
2) The Broncos have a great pass defense.
3) This game is outdoors in Denver. All four of Amendola’s good FF games this year have been at home/in the dome.
4) Kerryon Johnson is back…more emphasis on the running game.
5) DEN-DET will be more of a sluggish offensive game…not lending itself to excessive targeting against prevent defenses for Amen to pull numbers out of.
-- What happened to ‘starter’ Ronald Jones (11-23-0, 1-26-0/3)?
Since Week 5, Jones has rushed for less than 55 yards in a game in nine of his 10 games. He does have 4 TDs, but that’s about all that’s FF-worked…the weeks he has grabbed a TD.
No way Jones or Barber are the starting RB for TB next season. Come on David Johnson!!
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Logan Thomas
38 = Jesse James
12 = Isaac Nauta
67 = Perriman
46 = Godwin
42 = J Watson
13 = Hyman
11 = S Miller
66 = OJH
31 = Brate