2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Cowboys 44, Rams 21
Well, I was sure the Rams were going to win big here. How could they not? Hottest team in the league, aside from the Ravens. Dallas coming in…ice cold. Rams stay alive for the playoffs with a win. Dallas could’ve lost and still been good for the NFC East (with a win Wk 16). I bet big on the Rams.
The next thing I know, Dallas is going up 28-7 before the half.
The Rams went down 7-0, and then tied it up 7-7 in the 2nd-quarter. Two Rams defenders ran into each other springing Tavon Austin for a long TD and Dallas went up 14-7…OK, just some bad luck so far. Dallas then scored after the two-minute warning to jump ahead 21-7…Goff then got picked and set up a TD right before the half, and this game that was close in play, for most of the 1st-half, totally fell apart.
That’s how some NFL games go…a good bounce here, a tipped pass pick there, a 3rd & 10 conversion here, a 4th & 2 midfield get there, and a team gets on a roll. That was Dallas this game…played well, beat the Rams legit but got a lot of good fortune to help light the fuse. The Rams couldn’t answer back and then just rolled over.
The Rams are 8-6 and need a miracle to get to the playoffs over Minnesota…the Rams have to win out and the Vikings lose out. Minnesota may fold, but I don’t know that the Rams can win two games in a row @SF and ARI. It’s not crazy, but Minnesota losing back-to-back home games would be a total shock. Wrong time for the Rams to be playing the 49ers this week too. We project the 9-7 Rams will miss the playoffs.
Dallas is now 7-7 and can win the NFC East this week with a win over Philly. If Dallas loses, they need to win Week 17 and have the Eagles fall Week 17. I’m leaning Dallas wins Week 16 over PHI (too many PHI injuries right now), and thus wraps the division and then are a dangerous playoff team in Round One hosting SF or SEA.
Not many big FF notes from this game…it was kinda over quick and sloppy and not very FF fruitful outside of the RBs doing normal RB things (scoring most all the TDs) and then Tony Pollard rolling in mop up time.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Tyler Higbee (12-111-0/14) is real. He looks great. He’s running faster than I’ve seen him before. It looks like he cut 10-15 pounds and became more like his slimmer college receiver self than the thick blocker TE…just to my eyes/they maybe playing tricks on me.
No reason not to trust him until he gives us reason not to, and I don’t think Gerald Everett being back (if he is) would scare me. Higbee is found a whole new gear in this offense (after being in hiding for 3 years).
It helped that Jaylon Smith (5 tackles) is the most overrated big name LB in the NFL, and he can’t cover anything and if you need to go left he goes right and vice-versa 80% of the time, it feels like to me.
Higbee has popped against the #32 (worst) against the TE Cardinals and #21 against the TE Cowboys. This week he gets the #3 (best) 49ers defense against the TE. He might be in for a bit of a rude awakening, but the connection is so strong right now it’s hard to bet against it.
-- Can you trust the Dallas-DST against the Eagles Week 16?
I think so. A nice performance here, just giving up junk late…it was 37-7 with 3+ minutes left in the game before a bunch of cheap TDs broke out.
Dallas has a solid defense and the Eagles have no receivers or real ball control RBs, and Carson Wentz has struggled all season…and struggled the last two weeks before getting bailed out with numbers in the 2nd-half against bad pass defenses (NYG and WAS)…games they should’ve lost.
-- Cooper Kupp (6-41-1/6) played 90%+ of the snaps, so Week 14’s low/20 snap count game was a blip. He’s a solid WR2 hope Week 16.
Robert Woods’ (4-17-0/9) hot streak ended, but he did lead all the WRs with 9 targets. He’s a solid WR2 for PPR Week 16.
-- Jared Goff (33-51 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) has 2 TD passes in a game in three straight games but it’s hard to trust him to hit/exceed that against the 49ers this week. The 49ers have been giving up numbers and have several injuries…but it’s not a good matchup for Goff. He’s not great on the road or with a high-pressure front.
-- Amari Cooper (1-19-0/2)… I see no issues, just this game got out of hand and why push Cooper to take meaningless targets/hits in this type of game? He’s fine for Week 16…more than fine vs. PHI.
Michael Gallup (1-6-0/3) similar deal…why push them with a big lead and the run game working so well? Should be fine this week vs. good against the run, bad against the pass Eagles.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Gallup
50 = Cooper
29 = Cobb
70 = Gurley
03 = M Brown