2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Eagles 37, Redskins 27
All I can think about this game is…I took the Redskins +4.5. Thought they might win outright. They led by 3 with less than two minutes left. It’s in the bag! Then the Eagles score against the prevent defense with 0:32 left, and then cap it off with a final play fumble recovery TD…9 points in the span of 0:26 seconds and…as I really question why I bother trying to bet against the spread week-to-week. However, I love the action, the challenge and it keeps me focused on micro things happening in games…so, I press on.
As far as the game itself…I don’t know how the Eagles keep winning games of late. The Week’s 13-15 stretch that was going to be so prime for Philly…they should’ve lost to MIA-NYG-WAS in succession. The Eagles are barely/not better than the worst teams in the NFL. Yet, here they are on the verge of hosting a playoff game potentially.
The Eagles need to win out to try and get that NFC East crown. It makes no sense that they would/could, which means they absolutely will. Just when you think Philly is dead…Dak’s shoulder has an issue going into the big game. I’ll assume the Eagles go 9-7 and take the division title, but I would not be shocked if they lose out either.
Washington is now 3-11 but playing much better. They should’ve won here and went to Green Bay Week 14 and played the Packers tough. Bill Callahan has done a solid job with his interim stint. The Redskins might be stuck at 3 wins this season and a possible #2 draft pick…or they could win out for a 5-11 finish and fall back in the draft.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Watching the Redskins primary WRs the last two weeks…
Terry McLaurin (5-130-/11) is playing about as well as any rookie WR in the league. And I did not see it coming. I had a nice year scouting WR talent in my preseason draft studies. Eventually, I found them all…Diontae, Preston, etc. The one I thought was more average and in a bad spot was McLaurin, but I was way wrong. He has an argument to be one of the best 2-3 WR talents from this draft.
It’s insane that the 2019 NFL Draft just dumped about 5-6+ star/superstar potential WRs into the league. We have hit a saturation point with WR talent…too much talent, not enough passes to go around for them all. The WR economy in fantasy is inflated…over supplied to meet the demand. WR values, even among top guys, should be discounted big picture for 2020. We’ll be trying to gage and value that market for dynasty and redraft all 2020 preseason.
McLaurin is a safe play each week in a decent+ matchup because Dwayne Haskins wants to go there, and eventually they connect.
I was also right on WR scouting, way ahead, on Steve Sims (5-45-1/11)…he’s gone from UDFA to leading the team in targets the last two weeks. Who woulda thunk it? Not even me.
Sims is still a boom-or-bust receiver going through ups and downs. He made two terrific catches early in this game, and then mid game he had two key drops (just him looking ahead before the catch). The drops are happening because he’s going into danger over the middle and he’s not used to that…and, perhaps, is not good for that role. He’s more a bubble or bomb guy, not an interior workhorse, but credit to him…Washington is using him as the ‘…if McLaurin is not open’ option. And McLaurin has a lot of coverage on him every play.
-- The Redskins have way better young WR talent than the Eagles. How the Eagles are winning games with this WR group…it’s an embarrassment to scouting. So many WRs floating around now, and the Eagles are rocking Greg Ward (7-61-1/9) and terrible J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (0-0-0/2).
Ward is a decent WR talent, a grinder converted from college QB. He’s not a real NFL starter, but the Eagles have no choice right now.
JJAW…I think I was the only scout who nailed this and spoke the loudest on it among this who had suspicions – he cannot get open in the NFL. He’s too slow in his burst/breaks in routes. Decent hands but that’s it…and you can beat small college DBs with body positioning and good hands, but the NFL is not having it. J.J. has 8 catches on 20 targets this season…and 2nd-round draft pick bust.
-- Dwayne Haskins (19-28 for 261 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is ultimately going to fail/fall short in the NFL, but he’s playing better each week. He’s getting more comfortable, confident each week…as these new era 7-on-7 raised QBs have it easy in the NFL with some time to throw and guys who can catch.
Haskins has gone from ‘F’ to ‘D’ in the past few weeks. Still erratic/inaccurate and arrogant for his skills, but not without ability.
-- Carson Wentz (30-43 for 266 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) looks like a bottom 10 NFL QB this year. Could be the injuries. Could be the offense. Could be he was overhyped, and reality is becoming more real. I don’t think he’s dead, but I’ve always been more anti-Wentz than not…and he’s coming towards my assessment every week.
I’m not gloating, because he’s better than I thought and might have legit excuses for this rough season.
Having a good game against Washington missing two top CBs for them…I’m not impressed/thinking Wentz is cured.
-- What is Josh Ferguson (3-9-0) doing taking 1st-series carries for the Redskins? The former star receiving back for Illinois has bounced around the league and is somehow meaningful for Washington right now. I thought he was about done in the NFL, but he has another life in Washington for the moment. Nothing to worry about for dynasty stash purposes.
-- Boston Scott (6-26-0, 7-39-0/7) has 13 catches the past two weeks…on 13 targets. He’s caught 100% of his 14 targets this season.
You can trust him for PPR Week 16, to a degree, because Wentz has no one else to throw to…he uses RBs like WRs, and Wentz loves the screen game.
-- Redskins’ 2nd-year CB Danny Johnson (10 tackles, 1 PD) led the team in tackles in his first NFL play/game.
He’s 5’9”/181 with 4.49 speed but 7.2+ three-cone. He didn’t standout to me here in this game. Nothing major to see here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = McLaurin
44 = Harmon
37 = Sims
32 = AP
18 = C Thompson
03 = Ferguson
55 = Sanders
35 = Scott