2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Falcons 29, 49ers 22
The thing I walk away from this game thinking/feeling…The Falcons really battled even with/took it at the 49ers. I don’t see any fear of the 49ers in any of their recent opponents. Shootouts might break out, and the 49ers are good…but it’s not like San Fran is just wrecking teams. The Falcons weren’t really lucky here…they just took it to the 49ers, hung around late and won it last second.
It was 10-10 at the half. SF got up 20-10 with 10 minutes left, and I’m thinking the 49ers are good and can cover the spread…then the Falcons push right back into it and win on the final drive, with a seconds-remaining TD.
The Falcons are 4-2 since their BYE week with wins at NO and at SF. They are 5-9, but 4-2 these last six games and if they win out, they could have a nice 6-2 finish in the 2nd-half of the season…and then they cannot/should not fire Dan Quinn. Quinn rallied his team through injuries and a terrible start, and has throttled some good teams the second half of the season.
The 49ers are a fabulous George Kittle play late in a game to win against the Saints away from a current three-game losing streak. Had they lost to New Orleans…the 49ers would have one quality win on the season – throttling Green Bay. This 49ers team is a bit of a fraud built upon a favorable early season schedule…like the Patriots have been. We project the 49ers to finish 12-4, possibly 11-5…and be the wild card. But they can still win the NFC West and be a #1 seed if they win out. Could go either way. The 49ers are ‘good’ not ‘great’.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Deebo Samuel (1-29-0/3) and Emmanuel Sanders (2-9-0/4) were huge let downs in what was to be a favorable matchup…or so we all thought. The Falcons have some nice young corners who blanketed the WRs and that chased Jimmy Garoppolo (22-34 for 200, 1 TD/0 INT) into throwing half his passes and over half his completions to George Kittle (13-134-0/17)…working the TE and avoiding the WRs. Credit the Falcons defense to a large degree.
Against the Rams Week 16…we might see a repeated pattern of targeting to Kittle over the WRs.
-- This was also supposed to be a favorable run game scenario/matchup for both teams but the lead RBs really never came through that big…
Devonta Freeman (12-39-0, 2-16-0/3) put in another sleepy performance. He has a great Week 16 matchup with the Jags, but I’m not sure he or this O-Line can make it happen.
Raheem Mostert (14-54-1, 1-5-0/2) was thought to be in a perfect situation and was deemed ‘the man’ by Kyle Shanahan…but he only put up 59 total yards but did get aa TD to salvage his FF week. He’s in a decent spot against the Rams this week…but just when you think you have the 49ers backfield flow figured out; a curve ball appears.
-- Austin Hooper’s (3-20-0/6) two games since returning from injury: 2.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 26.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
Hooper has not shown that same pop as pre-his injury, when he was the top PPR TE in fantasy in PPG. Great matchup this week with Jacksonville – he might swing himself back on track Week 16.
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer
-- What about these two defenses?
Since Week 10, the Falcons’ return from a BYE, here are their fantasy PPG rankings (FantasyPros scoring) in PPG in that span:
#9 = Falcons-DST
#13 = 49ers-DST
Week 16…the falling 49ers-DST faces a solid enough Rams offense. The Falcons get the collapsing Jags at home. The right choice is probably the Falcons-DST, push comes to shove.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Mostert
19 = Coleman
12 = Breida
59 = Julio
57 = Chr Blake
51 = Gage
05 = Zaccheaus