2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Giants 36, Dolphins 20
Miami led this game 10-7 at the half. The Giants took it over from there…scoring 29 points in the next 25 minutes of play and cruised to a 36-20 win, a win that wasn’t as close as the score indicated.
Eli goes out a winner. He shoulda won the Eagles game the week prior. But this is Eli’s last game in the NFL. A really nice career for a divisive debate for the Hall of Fame guy. I feel like everyone makes the Hall of Fame if they made like a Pro Bowl at one point in a 7+ year career…and the percentage of care of have about the Hall of Fame is equal to the number of times I’ll see that new ‘Cats’ movie in my lifetime…zero. I don’t have a take on Eli for the Hall of Fame because I don’t care about it at all. I’m sure Eli will always remember this nobody cares win over bad Miami in the season where he got benched…a real proud moment. But it coulda been a worse ending, I guess.
The Giants ruin their #1 pick hopes by winning. They’re now 3-11 and might win one more game. Not only was the loss hurtful to their #1 pick hopes…but it now throws them to the #4 pick, which is a big drop in their draft asset value.
Miami, by losing, wins…they move into the #3 draft spot but if Washington beats the Giants this week, Miami then could lose their way to the #2 pick which would be key to try to get Joe Burrow. I don’t know if Burrow will agree to play for Cincy, so maybe Miami could swap picks in a deal with Cincy and get him and let NYG take Chase Young. Miami could ruin that potential 1-2 swap by beating said Bengals this week when they face off. Oddly, the current #1-4 picking teams in the draft are squaring off with each other in Week 16.
The big winner in Week 16 might be Detroit if they lose and Miami loses…suddenly the Lions would be the new #3 draft pick with a chance to get to #2 if things break right Week 17.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This is an unbelievable place for me to begin…
You know what the biggest note/impression I have from this game is?
Can we begin by talking about the Giants-DST?
By gutting all the veterans and moving towards their young talent…the Giants defensive unit is now actually trying hard, playing much better, and most importantly – they might possess the best young cornerback group 1-2-3 in the NFL.
2019 1st-round draft pick CB DeAndre Baker (6 tackles, 2 PDs) is starting to flash signs of a #1 cornerback. He was nice against the Eagles Week 14, and then he locked down DeVante Parker a lot in this game…despite DP’s two TDs in the game. Parker’s TD catch on Baker was a bit of junk time/good fortune, not a burn.
2018 2nd-round supplemental pick Sam Beal (11 tackles, 1 PD, 1 SAF) is starting to come into his own after missing 2018 with an injury.
2019 rookie Corey Ballentine (3 tackles, 1 PD) catches my eye every week.
2019 4th-round pick CB Julian Love (5 tackles, 2 TFLs) is starting to play better as well. He struggled early in the season.
The Giants defense has held three of their last 4 opponents to 20 or fewer regulation time points. The 20 points here, giving up a late garbage time TD.
The Giants have not allowed a 300+ yard passer, in regulation, in their last 6 games. They were getting bombed through the air the 1st-half of the season.
They face shaky, but improving a tiny bit, Dwayne Haskins this week. It might be another nice week for this NYG-DST.
-- DeVante Parker (4-72-2/7) did have two TDs in this game. A sweet timing pass from Fitz with DeAndre Baker not him, and then a lucky jump ball catch late in garbage time on Baker.
Parker is hot but it’s coming a lot off of ‘up for grabs’ throws from Fitz…and not a lot of smooth pitch-and-catch #1 work. Fitzpatrick has a license to bomb away. The next Miami QB probably won’t have such a license…and Parker has been better lately but vastly overrated. Miami is probably going to regret their DP investment big time ahead, unless Parker has fully turned his attitude around…and not just a sham in a convenient free agency year ‘change’.
*FFM Schedule rest of week…
12/19 THU = Projections update around 9pmET (no TNF game this week)
12/20 FRI = Projections update around 8-9pmET planned
12/21 SAT = Projections update around noonET. No video Q&A (not enough news happening pre-1pm kickoff)
12/22 SUN = Video Q&A show as usual. Projections update 12:30pmET +/-
-- The Patrick Laird (12-46-0, 2-8-0/5) issue…he can’t be the lead back for a team with a terrible O-Line. He’s a complimentary, 3rd-down RB at best. As the lead, he’s getting touches but not much fantasy action.
Myles Gaskin (9-33-0, 2-29-0/3) got more work this week, and there might be more of a 50-50 split coming Week 16.
-- Ryan Fitzpatrick (23-41 for 279 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 4-33-0) has 3-3-0-2 for total TDs the past four games.
You can trust, kinda, Fitz for fantasy Week 16 for two reasons:
(1) He never stops throwing, so he typically gets his passer numbers. Kyler Murray, for example, almost NEVER gets garbage time numbers. Fitz lives for it.
(2) He runs more than expected lately…30+ rushing yards in three of his last 4 games. He has 3 rushing TDs this season…more rushing TDs per game than Kyler Murray.
Fitz has started since Week 7…
3 TDs/4 INTs = Games against teams that had a winning record when they played (BUF 2x, PIT, IND)
10 TDs/4 INTs = Games with the even/losing records when played (5 games)
He faces the Bengals this week, and that may seem great…but the Bengals have the #15 pass defense (by yards) in the NFL. The 7th least amount of passing TDs allowed in the NFL this season. Their record is terrible, but their pass defense isn’t the cause.
Never give up Fitz vs. a decent pass defense = ? The question of the week for some.
-- Saquon Barkley (24-112-2, 4-31-0/5) finally had a good week…because of the Miami terrible run defense. That’s good news for Joe Mixon Week 16.
-- Daniel Jones will be back this week. Who will he throw to?
Sterling Shepard (9-111-0/11) always looked like the most comfortable throw for Jones.
Golden Tate (1-51-1/4) always seemed forced/lucky with Jones, needed because Shepard missed so many games midseason.
Darius Slayton (2-31-1/3) feels more important to Jones than Tate, but it’s been mostly ‘up for grabs’ throws to Slayton, hoping the land, and they have off and on.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = D Parker
57 = Wilson
33 = Hurns
31 = Ford
71 = Sam Beal
71 = Julian Love
69 = DeAndre Baker
62 = Ballentine