2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Jags 20, Raiders 16
Another game I thought was ‘in the bag’ as a bettor. The failing, quitting Jaguars going to Oakland to play a Raiders team still with playoff life (going into this game) and playing their last home game at Oakland before the Vegas move. The story wrote itself. The Raiders up 16-3 mid-4th-quarter…this seemed like money.
The Jaguars scored two TDs in the final 5+ minutes of the game because the Raiders are terrible, and Gardner Minshew never gives up. The Jags win and the Raiders season becomes more humiliating by the week.
Oakland was once 6-4, the underdog darlings of the league, and playing KC for the AFC West lead Week 13. They’ve lost four straight and have fallen to 6-8, on their way to a possible 6-10 finish. Whatever happens…good luck, Las Vegas – this is your team/nightmare now. Jon Gruden has gone from possible Coach of the Year…to ‘how the hell is this guy making that much money?’ in a very short span.
Jacksonville was playing worse than Oakland the past several weeks, and yet they rallied to a victory. The Jags are energized by halting their losing streak and now by the firing of the despised Tom Coughlin. I’m wondering if the Coughlin firing will give the Jags a temporary boost this week at Atlanta. Jacksonville will end the season with 5-6 wins total, but they could win out if they’re lucky and get to 7-9.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It was so important to get Josh Jacobs (24-89-0, 2-20-0/3) back onto the field to risk further damage to their franchise back…for a loss to the Jaguars. Smart.
Well, now Jacobs is out the ROS and it’s DeAndre Washington’s (6-16-0, 2-6-0/3) backfield the next two weeks. He’s a solid runner playing for his NFL life, so he’s FF-viable. Especially against bad run-stoppers like the L.A. Chargers Week 16. Washington won’t go crazy, but he’ll see 12-18 carries and 2-6 targets per game and you hope he somehow scores a TD within all that.
-- If D.J. Chark (DNP) starts practicing in full, I’d feel better about him for Sunday. The fact that he is still limited is worrisome…that’s he’s trying to rush back from a high ankle too fast – and that he’ll be active, start, we’ll play him for FF…and he’s not 100%.
I can’t confidently say that he’ll be a good play or not Sunday…it’s a fluid situation right now.
I do think if DJC is not active…I’m starting to feel better about Chris Conley (4-29-2/8) as the Jags WR to play, if you had to play one. I don’t love Conley (or Dede or Cole) in this wimpy passing game but for the first time this season, in this game, I saw some real nice work/connection between Minshew-Conley.
Not just the two TDs, but the way they went about it, the patterns run, etc. Conley finally looked like more than a deep ball random option here…running real interior routes and coming up big as the game wore on. If Chark is back, it takes some serious steam out of a Conley play.
Keelan Cole (3-76-0/6) just didn't look the part this week.
*FFM Schedule rest of week…
12/19 THU = Projections update around 9pmET (no TNF game this week)
12/20 FRI = Projections update around 8-9pmET planned
12/21 SAT = Projections update around noonET. No video Q&A (not enough news happening pre-1pm kickoff)
12/22 SUN = Video Q&A show as usual. Projections update 12:30pmET +/-
-- I know Leonard Fournette’s (15-42-0, 5-31-0/7) last few weeks have been FF-weak. He’s still the main carry guy…14-15+ carries and 6 or more targets in most every game this season with some double-digit targets in a few games in December. He’s getting the touches; you just have to hope he comes through with the results this crucial week.
He played 96% of the snaps here. Doug Marrone is likely done. He’s not holding back Fournette for the future. Marrone wants to win now for career record purposes and pride.
-- Darren Waller (8-122-0/10) is now, officially, the Raiders passing game. Everything is setup to work him short or medium and ride him as their main hope. He may not score TDs but he’s going to get a TD’s worth of catches and has 100 or more yards in two of his last 3 games.
In the past 3 games, Waller has averaged: 7.0 rec., 96.3 yards, and 0.0 TDs on 8.3 targets per game.
He’s the #4 TE in PPR PPG the past three weeks, tied with George Kittle.
You have to ride it Week 16, and hope he lands a TD to make it a special event. He’s been great all season, the #5 PPR PPG TE in fantasy all year with a shot to finish #1 with a big game this week.
-- Gardner Minshew’s (17-29 for 201 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-27-0) numbers in his two games returning as starter…
181.5 passing yards, 1.5 TDs/0.0 INTs, 29.0 rushing yards per game.
He barely has time to throw and is moving around for his life every time he drops back it seems.
Within that – considering the pressure he’s under every drop back, he’s playing fantastic football. If he ever gets an O-Line and a real offensive coach…he’s a star of the future.
The fact that the team has been dead and was dying for 50+ minutes here and he kinda single handedly scrapped this team back from the dead and won the game late – a testimony to his grit and his leadership. He is the 2020 starter for Jacksonville next season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Jacobs
22 = Richard
11 = Washington
53 = Dede
50 = Conley
43 = K Cole
11 = Board
29 = DeValve
21 = O’Leary