2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Packers 21, Bears 13
Strange game flow here that ended up to quite the finish I didn’t see coming, and the ending was even more painful rewatching it…
It was a bit of a slugfest to begin. 7-3 Packers at the half. It was cold, the offenses were sluggish…as I expected. But then things heated up in the 2nd-half, the Packers getting a couple TDs and racing to a 21-3 lead after three quarters...and it seemed over.
But the Bears chipped back into the game down 21-13 with 7+ minutes left, and they had two shots to get downfield and score/try to tie but they fell short. And I mean ‘fell short’.
The final play of the game was from 30+ yards out for the Bears, needing a TD, and trying one of those -- throw short and pitch the ball around like fools plays that never work…but this one did…almost…
Trubisky throws it short to Cohen for 10+ yards, who then tossed (lateral) it to the sidelines back to Trubisky on a designed play/plan it seemed. Had Cohen thrown it on a line/a rope, Trubisky catches it and probably runs in for a TD. Instead, the throw/ball is short, Trubisky has to snag it off the ground and takes off running between defenders towards the middle of the field and he then pitches it to his right before getting hit to TE Jesper Horsted.
Now, there’s so much chaos at this point that the Bears have a friendly field. Horsted gets the pitch around the 10-yard line. If Horsted just turns and pitches it to two open Bears to his right, those guys are going to score…the field is so scattered that the random pitch play is set to work. Instead, Horsted puts his head down and tries to run for the score. He’s quickly grabbed, and then he tries to flip it last second, but it goes awry and ball game. And the two Bears players awaiting that pitch yelling at him in frustration. Packers win 21-13 with a possible all-time classic game tying TD in the Bears’ hands…but they left on the field.
Chicago falls to 7-7 and now out of the playoffs. For as bad as this season seems to have gone…they might finish with the same/better record than the NFC East winner. The Bears could wind up 8-8/9-7 and yet it feels like a 5-11 season with a bunch of offseason questions.
Green Bay slides by again. They never look good to me this season, but they find a way to win most cases. They are 11-3 and have a possible #1 seed in their grasp…or possible collapse to a wild card. The Packers have a great path to winning the NFC North, even if they lose to the Vikings this week. It’s pretty much GB to win the division…the question is whether they are a #1 or #2 or #3 seed in the NFC.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Watching this game and considering the last 4-5 games…I’m starting to reduce my dismissiveness for Anthony Miller (9-118-1/15) as a solid play week-to-week, right now.
Weeks 11-14, I just saw no real connection between Trubisky-Miller…and that scares me that the non-beloved WR, the non-ARob guy of the moment can go 3-30-0 in a heartbeat, but Miller’s ‘low’ games are not that low of late and then he has upside like this game when the Bears get down and are throwing back in.
Most of the coverage is on Allen Robinson (7-125-0/14), leaving Miller space to operate.
Tarik Cohen (7-57-0/10) is benefitting from this suddenly rising passing game as well…5-7-4-6-7 for catches in games the last five games (5.8 rec. per game).
-- After reading how neat the Miller and Cohen numbers have been of late…it should naturally make you wonder – is Mitch Trubisky (29-53 for 334 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 4-29-0) worth starting this week at all?
Since Week 10, Trubisky is the #6 QB in fantasy in PPG (4 pts per pass TD). He’s not nothing.
And, if you believe the Chiefs will press out to a lead and score points in this game, as they should…it will make the Bears chase them -- and that’s what happened in this game. The Bears got down and suddenly Miller-ARob were stacking numbers late in the ‘gotta hurry’ comeback attempt.
Home teams tend to play well on solo night Sunday games, and I don’t think the Bears can run the ball to control this game…which forces the heavier passing game, and thus the FF numbers.
-- Aaron Rodgers (16-33 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had another ‘yawn’ fantasy event game. It’s been his story of 2019. He’s now fallen out of the top 12 QBs in PPG this season (#13). He’s had a couple monster games and mostly duds.
Can you trust him against the Vikings Week 16?
I think more ‘yes’ than ‘no’…it’s a game indoors/a favorable track and you throw on the Vikings versus try to dominate them with the run game. Green Bay may get down a few scores and need Rodgers to throw back in. I could see a good FF game on purpose, or in a deficit just throwing a lot…indoors.
Rodgers has not ‘lost it’, it’s just this offense/game plan is terrible most weeks…de-featuring Rodgers doing what Rodgers can do. They’re winning so they aren’t changing, but they could get down here and need Rodgers throwing. This game is HUGE for GB seeding on top of everything else, and they will fight to the end.
-- There is word from Matt LaFleur this week that he wants to get Jake Kumerow (1-49-0/1) more involved.
15 weeks in, and that finally dawned on you? Is this like the Allen Lazard (2-14-0/3) is getting more work after he took over and saved the Week 6 Lions game…and then barely saw any increased work?
I want to believe it, but I’ll believe it when I see it on Kumerow…Kumerow and Lazard should have been beyond obvious to start the season. Matt LaFleur’s words are meaningless and I think he could be the most ‘nothing’ head coach in the NFL aside from Jason Garrett…guys that are literally meaningless to the team. You or I could come in this Sunday and do the same job of outsourcing things to the coordinators and sit there with a blank stare on our faces all game talking to no one because no one is talking to us.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = A Jones
24 = Jamaal W
55 = Cohen
36 = DMontg
41 = Horsted
38 = JP Holtz
32 = M Lewis
25 = J Graham
14 = Sternberger
09 = Tonyan