2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Ravens 42, Jets 21
Well, we didn’t learn anything new here that we didn’t already know. The Ravens are near unstoppable and the Jets are not great and no match for the likes of Baltimore, but really…no team is.
Nothing new to read into here…the Ravens are still the Ravens we know and love, the Jets are the Jets. Exactly what you expected to happen…happened here.
The Jets are now 5-9, on their way to 5-11 with a rough final two games…PIT and @BUF. The Jets played better than I expected this season. Their defense was really impressive, but they took on a million injuries along the way and could never get consistency. The offense was plausible considering the O-Line issues/injuries. Sam Darnold has been OK enough…not a total disaster, just never an elite QB when you watch him. He looks like a solid NFL backup QB, but he has the name/media hype, so we don’t think about him in those terms.
The Ravens will not lose another game this season unless they want to Week 17…and even then, I think their backups could beat the Steelers. They have been on a path of destruction only slowed down by the rain against SF, so a closer win than the game really was…and the one NFL team not afraid of any team, the Bills…played them as tough as anyone will the rest of the way.
Baltimore will easily be the #1 seed and likely see/destroy the AFC South winner and await the KC-NE winner. I think they’d choose to play the Patriots over the Chiefs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (15-23 for 212 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT, 8-86-0)…
What else can you say? Just a couple of thoughts…
1) Jackson was a guy seen as a passing liability at best, and a move to WR at worst. That scouting label/thought, was off by a million miles because he is making NFL defenses look stupid.
If Jackson is a generational talent, game changer…then the traditional NFL scouting would have gotten Lamar and Tom Brady all wrong the last few decades. How does a sport get its two most transformative players so wrong in scouting? It’s why you cannot really trust anything THEY say or the instant reactions they have…because there is no track record of real scouting success over time. THEY can’t even find the greatest players in the game.
LJax…running QBs will never make it.
McCaffrey…too small to be an every down back.
Mike Thomas…solid, but not a difference maker.
Austin Hooper…too slow to make it big in the NFL.
Those are the respective #1 PPG scorers at their position in PPR fantasy.
2) With Jackson’s success comes the inevitable ‘everyone on the Ravens’ staff is now a hot head coaching prospect’. None hotter than O-C Greg Roman.
What kind of QB do you think he’ll be looking for with his new team? Taysom Hill can be bought from the Saints as an RFA this offseason. I’m just saying…instant Lamar-like for a guy head coach who will be desperate for that.
Not saying he’s anywhere as good…I’m just saying he’s maybe the closest thing to him today.
3) We’re all riding high on Lamar…either you have him in FF and you’re going to the fantasy finals or you don’t, and you fear facing him. He will be a top 10 redraft pick next year, I bet…breaking the QB stereotype.
But don’t you think he’s also such a candidate to get hurt when you watch him play? We could go from ‘the greatest’ to pretty silent in a hurry. Remember when people only talked about Patrick Mahomes as ‘everything’ this time last year? Memba, him? ‘Hot’ dissipates fast in fantasy.
4) Lamar is destroying things in fantasy. If you have Lamar or McCaffrey or maybe Mike Thomas and Derrick Henry…you have the real difference makers, but isn’t Lamar the one you fear the most facing you?
This is why I had such high valuations on QBs coming into this season, and on Lamar…I just had three guys ahead of him (in 4pts per pass TD). I would bet I had Lamar rated higher than anyone for 2019, but I had other QBs rated higher. My bad…but my models for top QB valuation were in the right church, just wrong pew.
Last year, it was Mahomes you all feared.
If you hate me for thinking Kyler or Baker could be those guys in 2019, fine…but I was trying to get in on the things that MATTER, that are true game-changers, especially for the price. I was looking in the right place, I was willing to spend what it took trying to find THE GUY, especially for the low draft cost QBs are. I’m not ashamed of it…I’m emboldened after seeing 2019. I was trail blazing. Got it right in 2018, not as much in 2019 with the QB choices for our top guys. Who else in fantasy is/was as high on QBs as me? And it’s lamar you fear above all in fantasy…you know it’s true.
5) Get ready for an offseason of the #MeToo movement on trying to find the next Lamar’s. Taysom Hill, Tyrod Taylor, Dak with Urban Meyer, Mitch Trubisky…are some names that will be bandied about as possibilities/daydreams. Any college QB with good feet and an arm will now be +100-200 NFL Draft spots above normal.
Now, will come the irresponsible chase to find the Holy Grail II…the next Lamar.
I was trying to find the next Mahomes this past offseason. This offseason, the next Lamar is now added in as well.
-- This is what Mark Andrews (4-52-1/7) and Marquise Brown (4-45-1/4) are in this offense…
Better for non-PPR.
Not going to catch 6-10 passes in a game and will get 1-3 catches way too many times. More less than 50-yard games than 100+ yard ones. BUT in this offense, it’s so efficient, they are going to score a TD most weeks.
Andrews seems to be the most stable producer of the group…and he doesn’t play 50% of the snaps. It’s crazy. Football is turned on its head here in 2019 and beyond.
-- Where will Le’Veon Bell (21-87-0, 2-1-0/2) be next season, because it won’t be on the Jets. He’ll likely be traded for some other too expensive contract as the teams swap players and the Jets get some other considerations.
We’re running out of places that need a starting RB.
Kansas City and Arizona come to mind as places…KC the one close to a title and need that one extra thing NOW even if it is shortsighted move.
Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson are going to remake fantasy waves this offseason by where they land next. Not out of the question Bell is traded for Johnson, really.
-- Justin Tucker (4/5 XPs) was having such a nice season…and then in this critical playoff week, no FG attempts and actually missed an XP.
You know how I feel about Justin Tucker, but I think those days are over for 2020+…this offense is too efficient for FG attempts. He’s the greatest, but not going to be that guy I push you to take higher than normal. Sadly. I’ll want him/use him, but not going after with the vigor of the past 2-3-4 seasons.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Boyle
23 = Andrews
18 = Hurst
34 = Ingram
18 = Gus
10 = Justice
59 = Robby A
50 = Crowder
37 = Vyncint Smith
14 = Jeff Smith
05 = Berrios