2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Saints 34, Colts 7
There’s not a lot to say here. The Saints completely destroyed the Colts in this one. The worst game I’ve seen from Indy all year and the Saints were rolling pretty well. The Saints beat the Colts like they do all teams – Brees-Thomas-Kamara-Lattimore. On the other hand, the Colts could barely complete a pass in the game even when it was wide open.
I think the Colts now realize they aren’t as good as they thought they were – because they don’t have an answer at QB, and if you have a weak QB…then you aren’t a viable playoff team. They have issues at QB, RB, TE (nothing dynamic here), and WR (Hilton getting old fast)…and they can’t cover in their secondary with their average or worse corners. The Colts are falling from AFC South team of the future to ‘will people be fired at the end of 2020 if it is a mess again?’
The Colts are 6-8 and may get to 7-8 wins before the season ends. They were once 5-2 and in range of taking a nice lead in the division and it all fell apart – mostly because of Adam Vinatieri…which is a coaching/GM issue more than the kicker himself.
The Saints go to 11-3…they sit as the current #2 seed behind Green Bay but with a chance to surpass them if they win out and the Packers stumble. But then San Francisco is not out of the race for the #1 seed over the Saints either (as they beat the Saints a few weeks ago). Seattle is in trouble because the Saints beat them already. A lot left to be determined. It’s huge for the Saints because they are not built to go to Green Bay in January, if they’d have to.
Not much positive/fresh to take away from this game rewatch…it was the same old Saints and a dead Colts team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My top note…T.Y. Hilton (4-25-0/9) did not look good to me here. He didn’t look like the TYH of old. Part of it might have been Marshon Lattimore had his way with him while the game mattered. But I think part of it also was – Hilton has lost a step, whether via injury or whatever.
Maybe Hilton will be better/more healed this week and has a bit of a better matchup with Carolina, but I’d be a touch nervous counting on Hilton being his normal self just yet.
Also note, Lattimore looks great in coverage – and he likely takes on A.J. Brown this week, and I like Lattimore more than AJB in that battle.
-- Part of my T.Y. Hilton lack of enthusiasm would also be him being teamed with Jacoby Brissett (18-34 for 165 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). In Brissett’s last 7 games, he has 4 TD passes and 3 INTs and most all games under 210 yards passing.
Low volume/output Brissett + not 100% Hilton = who can I trust?
Carolina Week 16 is OK against the pass…it’s the run they cannot stop (#32 in the league). How big a week could the Indy passing game have Week 16?
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.
-- I had some word last week that Tre’Quan Smith (1-21-1/1) was in-store for more work this game (and going forward)…and he did get a TD, but he also got the typical treatment of the non-Thomas WRs for the Saints – ignored.
Smith did have another TD in the game, but it got reversed for his offensive P.I.
He’s just a flier DFS play.
-- Make it nine straight games without a TD for Alvin Kamara (14-66-0, 5-23-0). The team has scored 80 points the last two games and AK still cannot get in on the scoring.
He’s hit 100+ total yards just once in his last 7 games.
I don’t know what’s wrong, but I don’t know how you bench him, especially in PPR, unless you got really strong other plays.
Mike Boone with no Cook/Mattison -- or Kamara Week 16? The answer is probably Boone this week! Strange times…
-- I knew Zach Pascal (4-44-0/60 could not be trusted. He’s been erratic with his opportunity all season. This was a good spot with Lattimore on TYH, and yet Pascal put up this dud week. Not all his fault…Brissett is terrible, which is the issue he carries into Week 16 as well.
-- Taysom Hill (2-1-0, 2-42-1/2) has more TDs in the past three games (3) than Alvin Kamara has all season (2). Hill has 6 TDs so far in 2019.
Make sure you’ve checked out my note on him on the dynasty stash ranking board for those in dynasty leagues.
-- If Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (8 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) is cleared for play this week (concussion) he’ll be a top 10 DB threat in IDP with Vonn Bell out. Bell was out for this game as well.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = J Hill
28 = Cook
17 = T Hill
25 = Mack
24 = Wilkins
09 = Hines
42 = Kamara
22 = Latavius