2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Seahawks 30, Panthers 24
I’m going to have a hard time seeing this game objectively…because I’m so mad, now re-mad watching it again. I bet big on Seattle -6.0 midweek, last week. Seattle was up 30-10 with 7+ minutes left and I was already calculating what presents I would buy the family with the money during the live watch…and then Seattle, as they have done all $#%$#^#%#$# season (it feels like, as a bettor)…they let the team they are beating up score a bunch of points late. I’m too lazy to look it up, because it doesn’t matter, but of all the playoff teams, I guarantee Seattle has given up the most 2nd-half and/or 4th-quarter points of any of them…unless, of course, it’s against Arizona/Kyler for my FF, then Seattle gives up nothing in the 2nd-half.
I can summarize this game in two ways…
1) When Carolina ran their regular offense, they did nothing, were predictable and fell behind.
2) When they broke out the Curtis Samuel in the backfield and taking carries offense, they got right back into the game, all game.
Kudos to the new O-C, Son of Norv, for figuring this out…Curtis Samuel is one of the most underutilized/hidden weapons in the NFL.
Also, nice job Spawn of Norv, you idiot – why don’t you stick with it all game? Seattle was totally confused with Samuel involved in the run game, even off fakes and simply in-motion moments. Do you not want to win? Can you not see the difference in your offense when you’re doing the Samuel-thing? Go watch this tape over and over this week, see the difference and commit to it already?
Guaranteed…Samuel gets no carries next week.
Carolina loses their 6th game in a row, so the all-McCaffrey offense is really winning. They are 5-9 on the season, on their way to 5-6 total wins to the finish…and a sad finish from when they won four in a row Weeks 3-6 and looked like a top 5 NFL team. New coach in 2020? I’ll put a $1 on the Baylor head coach Matt Rhule going here.
Seattle gets to 11-3, which is huge after the 49ers stumbled to Atlanta this week. If Seattle wins out they win the NFC and is the #1 seed. If they lose Week 17 to SF, assuming the beat Arizona Week 16, they would trigger a bunch of tiebreakers that can’t be set in stone because they go 4-5 levels deep and gets into strength of schedule, and there are still games to go to determine that (ones not involving SF or SEA). It’s still up from grabs for Seattle…a BYE and hosting a playoff game next or heading to Dallas/Philly for the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Curtis Samuel (5-31-1/7, 4-23-0) is still very FF viable, as we’ve been arguing, because of his unique touch counts and his backfield work.
You’re happy if your WR catches 5 passes in a game, but Samuel can catch 3-4 of them but then supplement that with 3-4 carries in a game every week now. He’s getting his hands on the ball close to 8-10 times a game with O-C Scott Turner.
In this game, he had some neat moments of unique usage…
1) Lined up as a tailback, he took a fake, bled through the line as a screen options (wonderfully disguised) and got the screen and darted for 12 yards and a 1st-down.
2) Came in motion as a WR, with the QB in the shotgun but the ball was snapped as Samuel crossed the path and he took it as a designed in-motion direct snap and ran for a solid gain.
3) He had a goal line shot on a jet sweet, a 4-yard run that get halted at the 1-yard line or he would’ve scored a TD.
Samuel has 6 TDs in his last 9 games, and 7 TDs on the season. He’s ‘just missed’ on about 5-8 other TDs this season.
Still, just a mediocre season from my expectations. A WR3 in total, and the #24 WR in non-PPR since Week 6. Not bad, but not as good as I had hoped this season.
He’s getting the looks/work/getting open like a #1 WR…but his QB overthrowing him on wide-open bombs has killed his upside.
-- Not that you’re benching Christian McCaffrey (19-87-2, 8-88-0/10)…but I wonder if Will Grier is entering his debut game wondering how many times he can dump it off to CMC, like all the other QBs seem to…or does he have a different mindset? He might need to overwork CMC to endear himself, but Grier’s nature is to go downfield…he’s a 7-on-7 QB who might be better for Curtis Samuel than McCaffrey.
2020 Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball Subscriptions Coming Soon
It’s almost time for season #2 of our 2018 debut subscription…Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball.
I created Dynasty offseason as a way to communicate rankings/valuations on (500+) existing players (and also 400+ IDPs) for Dynasty and Keeper planning purposes (trades, etc.) as well as getting the jump on Best Ball/MFL drafts that begin in February and run all the rest of the year.
The fastest growing success percentage/money earning with FFM scouting/rankings/etc. is in those Best Ball/MFLs – draft a deep roster and forget it until the season begins, and then just watch the results…no lineup settings, no trading. Just pay to compete, out-draft everyone else, and try and cash in on our early/better read on things.
Dynasty Offseason subscriptions will be available when College Football Metrics begins (mid-Jan.), you can purchase as a combo or just individually the one you want/need. However, the Dynasty Offseason articles, advice, rankings, etc., will not kickoff until right after the Super Bowl…and then we pile in material daily/weekly until opening day of the new NFL season.
If you were not a part of the Dynasty Offseason program last year, I will have more details on it on my playoff game recaps in 2020 and some additional explanation on Best Ball/MFL leagues, how to get started in them, how they work, etc. – if you’re not doing Best Ball/MFLs…you are missing out. I’ll explain more In January.
-- I knew this would happen…
I knew we’d get burned by Tyler Lockett’s (8-120-1/9) low volume stretch, we’d all get sick of it and send him to the bench and then as soon as we did that and felt good about benching him (as we have the last 2-3 weeks), he’d pipe back up and go off…like he did here…on too many of our benches.
I’m not falling for it going forward. This happened earlier…his trend has been lower volume ‘meh’ games with big, random blip games.
…wait, what? They’re playing Arizona this week? Oh, OK…I’m good with Lockett this week!
-- It helps Lockett that Josh Gordon (1-58-0/1) is gone, for FF, I guess. Not that Gordon did anything here anyway.
I’m proud that I called this one way ahead on Gordon. Before he got dumped by NE, I was saying for weeks that something was off/wrong with Gordon and that everyone who had him needed to trade him/bail. You mostly did, if you even had him…and then he got dumped by NE, and now dumped by Seattle.
I sensed something was off. He’ll not play another meaningful FF game ever again…not sure he’ll ever play an NFL game ever again.
The media still adores him, they thought Seattle got a real coup here and thought the Pats were dumb – the Patriots had to see what I saw. Seattle didn’t…or didn’t care.
*FFM Schedule rest of week…
12/19 THU = Projections update around 9pmET (no TNF game this week)
12/20 FRI = Projections update around 8-9pmET planned
12/21 SAT = Projections update around noonET. No video Q&A (not enough news happening pre-1pm kickoff)
12/22 SUN = Video Q&A show as usual. Projections update 12:30pmET +/-
-- Jacob Hollister’s (3-23-0/3) last 4 games…
3.7 rec. (5.3 targets), 30.8 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
He’s had eight Seattle events since Will Dissly left, and two have been sweet and six have been kinda garbage (for FF).
You want to trust him against Arizona, because ‘Arizona’, but it’s not a slam dunk play. Still, it makes more sense than not.
Snap Counts of Interest:
72 = McCaffrey
00 = Bonnafon
51 = Carson
10 = Prosise
06 = Homer