2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 3 – Bears 31, Redskins 15
I’d be scared to death of this game…if I were a Chicago Bears fan. And I would not hang my head too low if I were a Redskins fan.
The Bears couldn’t score an offensive TD until halfway through the 2nd-quarter and then a floodgate opened led by the Redskins turning the ball over a lot to set up the Bears’ offense – as you would expect…the Bears' defense is really good. I didn’t say ‘great’. I’m starting to wonder if ‘great’ is beginning to slide through their fingers. Washington pushed their way back into this game and Denver pushed their way down the field late when they had to in Week 2. It hasn’t been as ‘great’ as the 2018 version. It’s still a really good defense…and better than the Washington offense.
The Bears got off to a 28-3 lead via turnovers and a couple nice Mitchell Trubisky throws. The next thing you know, the Bears can’t do anything on offense in the 2nd-half (and floundered most of the 1st-half with the exception of a 7-minute span fueled by turnovers) and the Redskins clawed their way back to down 28-15 with 13+ minutes left. A fluky play or a stop and score away from a real ball game. The Bears shoulda put Washington away but they really didn’t.
To me, this game looked like another step down in the descent of Matt Nagy (which will all be blamed on Trubisky)…this offense has been dying since Nagy’s first few games. You could chart it.
First 8 games Nagy coached: 29.4 PPG (under 20 points…once)
The next 4 games Nagy coached: 27.3 PPG (under 20 points…none)
The next 4 games Nagy coached: 19.3 PPG (under 20 points…twice)
The next/the last 4 games Nagy coached: 16.3 PPG (under 20 points…thrice)
David Montgomery is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL. Taylor Gabriel is a weapon never used right, usually (but had 3 TDs here). Trey Burton has not been anything like the Travis Kelce Nagy proclaimed. Anthony Miller is terrible as a 3rd WR. Tarik Cohen, the team’s best weapon, is being phased out. Mitch Trubisky is not getting better as a young QB at all. If Nagy was a genius, you’d see growth in Trubisky. Mitch looks the same to me -- stunning raw talent, running the same tired plays with lesser and lesser talent being pushed for him to work with.
The Bears should go with a Davis-Cohen backfield, with Cohen a WR when not at RB, with Robinson-Gabriel-Wims at WR. Matt Nagy has no vision for talent. His playbook is tired nonsense with like two cool (but usually useless) plays/formations they will run in the 1st-2nd series…and tired nonsense otherwise. The Bears are sinking slowly -- and their defense is starting to slip along with it. Green Bay and Minnesota got better this offseason. Chicago got worse, on purpose, via Nagy’s hand on his offensive lineup. They lose to the Vikings this week, and all hell will break loose…
The Redskins played well against Philly Week 1. Fought back from early deficits Weeks 2-3 but couldn’t make the full comeback – but credit to Jay Gruden. Against playoff level teams all season, outmanned, Washington has never quit and made games tighter in the 4th-quarter and forced opponents to step back up to close them out. I like what this Redskins team might do this week against their first inferior opponent – NYG.
We’re tracking the Bears to 7-8 wins this season if they lose this week hosting Minnesota.
We’re tracking Washington…well, we’re really not tracking them. If they win this week, they might get to 6 wins. If they lose this week, with the Pats coming next week…Gruden could be fired after the Pats game and this team turns to utter chaos led by Dwayne Haskins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We can continue to agree to agree on Mitchell Trubisky (25-31 for 231 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT)…he’s going nowhere. We have different reasons for that theory, but we’ve arrived at the same place -- let’s celebrate that instead of trying to figure out who is right about why we’re right.
Trubisky is getting the Andy Dalton/Nick Foles treatment, nationally. The NFL people never liked him, and they’ve created a narrative that he’s terrible and they won’t let go because they think they got something here to unify under. They are trying to circle the same wagons around Baker Mayfield – it won’t work with him in the end.
They hate Trubisky’s 15-4 record the past two seasons, division winning in 2018, 65%+ completions the past two seasons, and his 2018 Pro Bowl appearance. THEY LOVE Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold to this day. The national football analyst group is the most unstudied, detrimental with their ignorance group in existence…well, them and the national political media. They are killing Trubisky’s career proclaiming him terrible, when they don’t know what they are talking about and they are not assigning the same blasphemy to ‘their guys’ that are failing harder.
It doesn’t matter. The damage is done. I saw them try and was succeeding but then didn’t succeed but will try again to take out Nick Foles as a proclaimed lucky/terrible QB -- despite all his winning and success. They tried to take out Jared Goff the same way. They are now laser focused on Trubisky – and Trubisky doesn’t have Sean McVay to save him.
Trubisky is not getting any better with Nagy. We’re at peak Trubisky. And when the Bears start to die…Trubisky will take the blame and his career will fall to being a backup in 2-3 years, possibly traded away. Trubisky is too coddled and too sensitive and too inexperienced to take all this heat. Nick Foles was uniquely designed to take the wrath of Philly fans and then national media – and even he got to a point where he thought he should retire. When the Bears start losing/disappointing…this puppy is over for Trubisky. It will just take a year or two for it to really play out, and it will be ugly…ugly and unfair by the analysts. I suspect Trubisky will be accused of peeing on someone in a Russian hotel room soon. The media wants his head on a platter and nothing will convince them otherwise, unless he wins a Super Bowl MVP…and that will only delay their bloodthirst.
Trubisky is the perfect fall guy for Nagy…the move away from Trubisky will buy Nagy 1-2-3 extra seasons in Chicago down the road. The Bears think they have this emerging thing coming off 2018 – little do they know they are being locked in a prison for the next half a decade at least because it’s a Nagy issue, not a Trubisky one – the media is going to con Bears fans otherwise and it will cost them many years of heartache.
We’re not there yet, but we’re close – and I think a huge step happens if they lose at home to Minnesota this week.
For me, for dynasty/fantasy, Trubisky is better than the zero he’s made out to be…and I have some shred of hope he just decides to go his own way and start fighting Nagy and does what he wants, and I think Trubisky has the talent to be unlocked, but Trubisky is a compliant human who will dutifully take the blame and the bench and be a good sport about it. He doesn’t have a Baker-esque attitude.
-- Cordarrelle Patterson (4-14-0) getting 4 carries in a game this week is just a sign that Matt Nagy thinks he’s so cute with trying to use Patterson as a runner more – people think WR jet sweeps are so innovative, but everyone is running them now. Patterson should get carries, I’ve been saying that for years, but Tarik Cohen (4-0-0, 2-26-0/4) getting 4 carries is idiotic by comparison and Mike Davis (1-2-0) playing one snap in this game is insanity. All so David Montgomery (13-67-0, 3-14-0/3) gets a major push.
If you needed to make one big play, and you have Patterson-Davis-Cohen-Montgomery…who’s the most likely to make that play? The least likely is Montgomery -- but he got 16 total touches and the other three guys got 11 combined. Nice job, Nagy.
You might as well quit Tarik Cohen, for FF, in the same vein as Trubisky. Super-talented but being deemphasized on a dying offense. I’m sure Cohen will have another big week somewhere along the way, but it will just be an aberration.
This Bears’ offense is a David Montgomery injury away from being decent/good.
-- I never thought Terry McLaurin (6-70-1/8) could be a #1 WR, but here we are. He’s not my favorite of the new breed (over like Chark, Sutton, etc.), but I have gained a lot of appreciation for him and I acknowledge that I looked right past him in Washington.
Paul Richardson (8-83-1/9) is good but hasn’t been much for Washington so far. This game was a good sign/proof of life, and maybe if McLaurin out Week 4…PRich has a big week vs. the sad NYG pass defense.
If McLaurin is out, Steven Sims (2-24-0/2) may be the shocker of the week. I’m telling you…there is some star power lurking there. A guy who might be starting, or at least playing more/seeing more touches in a few weeks.
-- My boy Cole Holcomb (9 tackles) is averaging 7.7 tackles per game, but I didn’t realize until re-watching this game that he got his snaps cut in half from normal. 9 tackles playing half the snaps is awesome…but playing half the snaps is a worry that he starts getting the rookie treatment/blame some for the defense.
Rookie CB Jimmy Moreland (7 tackles) is averaging 6.5 tackles per game the past two weeks – he’s just an energizer bunny all over the field. He’s just a really good football player. Solid IDP for a corner.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = CH Thompson
36 = Peterson
41 = Montgomery
32 = Cohen
09 = Patterson
01 = Davis
69 = McLaurin
65 = P Richardson
57 = Quinn
10 = Harmon
08 = Rob Davis
07 = Sims