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2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Bears 16, Vikings 6

Date:
October 3, 2019 4:15 PM
October 3, 2019 4:01 PM

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Bears 16, Vikings 6

 

This has to be the single stupidest ‘debate’ in the NFL. And it’s so typical NFL analysis…

Really, Kirk Cousins is a major problem? NOW, it’s a problem. The guy who took this team to the final four two years ago. The guy who got off to a 2-1 start this year and everyone thought the Vikings were a top 5 NFL team. So, Cousins doesn’t play well AGAINST THE BEARS…LIKE EVERY QB FOR TWO SEASONS …and NOW that signals a total crisis here for NFL analysts.

You know what, you utter morons in NFL analysis – QBs can’t play Miami and Washington every week. You idiots who elevated Lamar Jackson to the Hall of Fame after Week 1 against Miami…where are you now? Oh, you’re picking on the latest QB to flop against the Bears. What scintillating football analysis.! How long have you been studying the tape and data on that one…like years, but this ONE GAME was the tipping point?

Side note -- And then Nick Foles actually beats this Bears defense on the road in the playoffs last year…oh, Foles is just lucky. Just good game planning by the O-C.

My theme of 2019… NFL analysts know absolutely nothing and all they do is a parlor trick every show/column they have – the trick is to latch onto the popular theme of the week and join the hyenas laughing about it and then find data or factoids to support the position they didn’t even come up with themselves. Then quote 1-2 tidbits as if it’s the slam dunk evidence in the case against or for whomever.

I spend 12 hours a day in-season looking at tape, listening to football talk, reading material, looking over and entering data by hand myself so I can really touch and feel it – and I don’t have enough time to properly study it all. I miss things. These national analysts watch some football on Sunday and Monday night and maybe for a half on Thursday between cocktail parties or trips ‘to the club’…and go play golf or work some other 9-5 job or do whatever all week – and they have the audacity to come out and start having strong football opinions like they really studied all this painstakingly.

Here’s the thing with Kirk Cousins… He’s not great, but he’s not terrible. He’s open for criticism. But let’s wait a minute here – why is everyone (outside of Minnesota) going 100% Kirk Cousins talk/blame and not one second of Mike Zimmer and Kevin Stefanski talk/blame? Does Zimmer have some kind of ‘get out of jail free’ card on everything? The guy goes through offensive coordinators and kickers like water for years, they have talent on the roster but up-and-down/erratic results – but nothing ever gets blamed on Zimmer. It’s ALL Cousins’ fault. Zimmer-Stefanski are so holy, such offensive geniuses that it has to be Cousins’ fault…for a bad game against Chicago…which every QB has?

It’s mind-numbing and not fair. Cousins certainly looked good when he was with Gruden-McVay, so what if Zimmer/Turner-Shurmur-DeFilippo-Stefanski are the issue? And the constant in that is Zimmer. Go look at Cousins’ numbers early last season when DeFilippo was in charge…then look to see what happened when they neutered him and then replaced hum. It’s easier for ignorant national analysts to pick on the quarterback because it’s the one guy on the roster they know…and maybe the running back. They couldn’t name five other guys on any roster if I was able to take ten obvious names off it…but they KNOW Kirk Cousins is terrible.

Then these geniuses double-down their idiocy and suggest Sean Mannion might be the answer. I wonder if I asked Michael Irvin to tell me about Kyle Sloter what would happen? It makes me mad because it’s not fair to Cousins to take ALL the heat for one loss. It’s not fair that none of them know anything about Kyle Sloter either. They are screwing people out of jobs with this nonsense because the general population fans/masses (of which I used to be one) and NFL HEAD COACHES AND GMs just gobble it all down and jumps on board with the same unoriginal thoughts. It’s really disgusting how they do hit jobs on QBs.

I have no interest in correcting them. When I see it now, I smile and am thankful. I cannot thrive in fantasy if these people ever got their acts together. I need them making asses of themselves all week long and taking the general fantasy population down with them. I feel bad for Cousins, but he has about $80M more dollars than I do…so, I don’t feel that bad.

So, Chicago wins a game at home led by their defense…and that’s considered some radicalized event that means Minnesota is the worst. Chicago played terrible on offense, per usual because few are worse at coaching offense than Matt Nagy, but their excellent defense bailed them out. I’m not shocked. I don’t know why this sets off a worldwide panic for Minnesota. When they meet again in Minnesota, the Vikings will smoke them.

It would be hilarious if Oakland beats Chicago this week – then we’re a year later and Oakland minus Khalil Mack has the same record as Chicago and the tie-breaking advantage (for the moment). I wouldn’t be shocked if Oakland found a way…

Chicago should win this week in Europe over Oakland and then go on to win 9-10 games this season, but 8 wins is not out of the question minus Trubisky for an extended period. We are projecting a very tentative 9 wins right now.

Minnesota Week 5 might be the bet of the year, the bounce back from all this Week 4 nonsense and playing the overrated Giants. If Center Garrett Bradbury is active/fine this week, I’m going all-in on Minnesota this week. We are projecting Minnesota between 7-9 wins. Not a great schedule ahead…at KC, at DAL Week’s 9-10 might be a blow at the wrong time.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- So, all the Kirk Cousins’ talk overshadows Chicago’s QB problem…Mitch Trubisky is out and Chase Daniel (22-30 for 195 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is in. Matt Nagy’s wildest dreams have come true. If he could, Nagy would start Daniel over Trubisky. Guys like Nagy LOVE the QB who studies tape all day and talks to Nagy like colleagues/friends, etc. – the fact the certain QB really isn’t very good for winning games in the NFL is besides the point. Daniel can really break things down on the white board and probably comes into the building at 3am to start his workday, so that’s more important than actual talent.

Will it affect the Bears passing game?

What Bears passing game?

Oh, Allen Robinson (7-77-0/7) will keep getting these types of games with limited TDs for the time being. He’s a solid WR2. WR1 is slipping off the table. A solid WR2 though.

What I’m totally geeked by is…Javon Wims (4-56-0/5). Guess who played the most snaps at WR for the Bears this game? Yep, Wims. His snap counts this season….20-18-17, and then 68 snaps here. He’s finally starting, and he is terrific. What will that mean for fantasy? Probably a lot of these types of games – 3-5 catches for 30-60 yards and no TDs in games, BUT he’s more of a TD guy than Allen Robinson. Wims is a master high point/fade pass catcher. A real NFL-starter talent. Wims might be a shock WR3/flex ahead because he would’ve been working with Chase Daniel on the 2nd-team all year.

…but Matt Nagy is an offensive genius who kept pushing Anthony Miller all along and missed on pushing Wims to help the offense. With Taylor Gabriel out, Wims may be the mini shock of Week 5.

 

 -- Speaking of WRs… How many targets do you think Adam Thielen (2-6-0/6) will have this week after all his chatter about the offense? Over/Under 50-100 targets this week vs. sad pass defense NYG?

The Robert Woods Week 4 crazy bounce back week award for Week 5 will go to – Adam Thielen.

This is how bad the football media is… Adam Thielen comes out and complains about not throwing the ball or throwing it deep and running too much. The media instantly twists that into Thielen taking shots at Cousins. When I heard the comments, I instantly thought – shots fired…at Zimmer and the O-C. The media takes what it wants to make a case it didn’t study but already decided on.

And to be clear…this is a Zimmer/Stefanski problem…not a Cousins one.

Also, note for those crying the blues on Thielen for FF. Cousins did overthrow Thielen on a 50+ yard TD…the type of deep-ball overthrow I see Drew Brees have all the time, but no one suggests he is terrible.

 

 -- Stefon Diggs (7-108-0/7) being traded? Hardly.

Minnesota has to win now, or someone might actually figure out Mike Zimmer is not a franchise head coach. And that the GM is a problem. If Minnesota trades Diggs…what would they do a for another WR? They have butchered the WR position in the draft and free agency and practice squad guys for a couple of years and have nothing in reserve. If the Vikings lose 3-4-5 in a row and are done for 2019…then a Diggs trade might happen.

For now, even if they hated Diggs…they have to keep him.

 

 -- Rookie WR Bisi Johnson (4-35-0/4) is not the answer. He’s a solid hand guy who will see 2-4 targets a game as the new #3 starter.

 

 -- I patiently await all your David Montgomery (21-53-0, 3-14-0/5) “You were right” emails. You can take more time if you want. You don’t want to jump to too fast of a conclusion. I get it. Be my guest. Don’t want to be too hasty. But I have a commanding lead in this race.

I told you there were issues and that the PFF stat was misleading garbage. I nailed it back pre-Draft. I’m ahead of my time, too good for this world. I’ll be appreciated years after I die…when people will say, “Why did people watch that football thing so much and take it so seriously? What a bunch of dolts!”

3.4 yards per carry and trouble getting open in the passing game because he is so painfully slow stopping and re-starting as a runner. Matt Nagy’s answer – MORE TOUCHES! He played 50 snaps and carried or was thrown the ball 26 times. Over 50% of the offense is going to one of their worst skill players.

David Montgomery couldn’t make the Patriots’ roster, but the Bears use him to run their entire offense through. Let that sink in for those Bears fans wondering if they should get Super Bowl tickets now.

 

 -- I’ve been asleep on IDP DT Bears’ Nick Williams (7 tackles, 2.0 sacks). He’s played more the last three games due to others being injured and has only had at least 1.0 sacks in each game (4.0 sacks in 3 games). 4.0 tackles, 1.33 sacks, 1.33 TFLs in his last three games as a rotational DT. If Hicks and Nichols are out again, and they probably are…Williams is a shock sleeper DT play.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

68 = Wims

63 = ARob

45 = Miller

07 = Patterson

 

50 = Montgomery

28 = Cohen

Inactive = Mike Davis

 

52 = Rudolph

29 = Irv Smith



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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