2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Chargers 30, Dolphins 10
The final score was about what you expected going in. However, once again, the Dolphins were fighting tough/hard/toe-to-toe in the 1st-half, but collapsed in the 2nd-half…like they did against Dallas.
The Chargers took a quick 3-0 lead, and then Miami came back with a TD next series to jump up 7-3.
LAC scored to go up 10-7, and then Miami answered back to tie it 10-10. Miami was driving soon after and missed a field goal/a chance to take the lead.
L.A. scored a TD to take back the lead, 17-10. Miami answered back with a drive but missed another field goal. It fell apart from there as a Chargers 17-10 halftime lead expanded to 30-10 and the 2nd-half of the game played like a bad scrimmage.
Miami is still pretty porous but not sure they’re much worse than the ‘quitting’ Washington and Cincinnati teams I watched in Week 4. Week 6 Miami v. Washington could be interesting in a weird good/bad way.
Miami should win at least one game this season – they have Washington, NYJ 2x, and Cincy still on the schedule.
The Chargers are 2-2, lucky to not be 1-3, could’ve been 4-0 with a few breaks. I have not been impressed at all with this LAC team. A win over Miami is a fake band aid masking the problems. We still project them as an 8-8 team, with the bias leaning under .500 right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Melvin Gordon (DNP) suited up but didn’t play…because Miami is not a real NFL team anyone takes seriously.
He should be back in action this week, and Anthony Lynn has said multiple times that “He’s our lead back,” so I assume he will be for sure. He might split this week, but I don’t buy this ‘don’t want to push him too fast’ stuff. RBs were purposefully sat out of the preseason (Elliott, Gurley, etc.) and were jammed a workload Week 1 like it was nothing. What else would anyone say about an RB back for his first game? Who ever says…well, we got Gordon back and we’re going to run him into the ground right away and we’ll see if he does OK.
It will be a 70/30 split with Gordon-Ekeler, like last season, and Justin Jackson well as might not even exist.
-- Miami is turning back to Kenyan Drake (9-44-0, 3-29-0/5) as a quasi-lead RB. On Miami, it means little. He’s an RB3 wild card every week.
Kalen Ballage (2-7-0, 0-0-0/1) is a waste of space and is losing snaps/touches quickly. If Miami is trying to lose, ‘starting’ Ballage is a nice way to accomplish the mission.
Drake should be traded within 2-3 weeks. Where? Unknown. Wherever the first real injury sucker punches a contender…which hasn’t happened yet.
No signs of Myles Gaskin or Patrick Laird anywhere for Miami.
Mark Walton (6-23-02-11-0/2) is getting a few touches late as the games fall apart. He doesn’t really matter for FF…no Miami RB does.
-- Preston Williams (4-46-0/7) led the Dolphins in targets again, but that was mostly FF meaningless again.
He’s the guy to own there. He’s getting the looks. Josh Rosen is going to him as often as he can. It just hasn’t clicked for wild fantasy points yet. It might when Miami is actually in a game/more equally matched.
Miami has a lot of bad pass defenses on the remaining schedule up through Week 16. He may start to matter soon. Still touch-and-go right now.
-- So, Dallas drafts Taco Charlton (6 tackles, 1 sack) in the 1st-round…then never plays him…then cuts after 2+ seasons…then he goes to Miami and in two games he’s registered a sack in each game.
It’s just two games, but he’s averaging 4.0 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 QB hits per game.
According to my eyes…he looks really good as the left-hand side pass rusher. He is getting to the backfield/giving his blocker some fits, or at least was in this game. Watching him here made me think – ‘What was Dallas doing with ignoring this guy?’
Considering how many snaps the Dolphins D plays…Charlton may be a bit of a shock IDP DE ahead.
-- Everyone loves/trusts the Chargers-DST for ‘reasons’…I think ‘feelings’ is more like it. Feels like a good D from 2018…and a team the national analysts like as a sleeper Super Bowl team for 2019 season. I get playing this DST against Miami, I was down with that. But against real opponents, I don’t trust them…don’t like what I see with this defense.
The LAC defense is middle of the pack against the pass and run (by yards) and #18 in sacks – and that’s with the cupcake/stat-padding game against Miami mixed in. Top 10 in PPG allowed, but get this…3rd-worst in the NFL in 3rd-down% converted/allowed. Only Washington and Miami are worse. The Dolphins’ offense was 5-of- 10 converting 3rd-downs against LAC this defense here.
LAC has DEN-PIT-TEN-CHI the next 4 weeks, and that looks promising and it’s not terrible…but I seriously question whether they will do anything for fantasy against these teams.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Smythe (I think Smythe is taking over as TE starter)
26 = Gesicki
24 = O’Leary
28 = Drake
13 = Walton
08 = Ballage
39 = Culkin
38 = Kendricks
48 = Taco
39 = Desmond King
11 = Jatavis Brown
11 = Biegel