2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Chiefs 34, Lions 30
For the third time in 4 games, the Chiefs were down quick to an opponent. For the second time in those 3 games, the Chiefs were down by 2 scores early. For the fourth time in four games, the Chiefs ended up winning their football game.
I don’t know if the Chiefs are a good, bordering on great football team…or just a high-powered offense that’s going to fall apart/be subject to the whims of shootouts when they start playing better teams/defenses. The Chiefs seem to score at will…they also don’t seem to be able to put up much defensive resistance. We also don’t know what Tyreek Hill’s presence really does to this 2019 team. We are projecting the Chiefs with an easy AFC West win now with 10-12 wins.
The Chiefs play four of their next five at home, and the schedule starts showing the better NFL pass defenses from Weeks 8 on. Weeks 14-16 with at NE, DEN, at CHI is not great for NFL purposes…and is a real question mark on what to do for fantasy. We gotta get there first…and Mahomes-Tyreek is likely to do just that.
The Lions are 2-1-1. They had chances to be 4-0 or 0-4 this season. I’m not sure if they are lucky or good/emerging. Every game seems to come down to the last second…and is more luck than ‘wow’ from Detroit. The good news is…they are in every game and have played good teams the last three weeks. If they can win every home game and lose every road game from here, they Lions would finish 8-7-1. They have a real chance at 9 wins with this schedule…and a 9-6-1 team is likely to be a wild card. We see 7-8 wins more likely than 8-9 wins but it’s right on the edge. One more good/lucky break and the Lions are a playoff contender or even NFC North contender.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What to do about this Kansas City backfield for fantasy? What will the workload be between the RBs?
I don’t know just yet.
It does seem Andy Reid is going with a split backfield. McCoy about 60% of the touches, the lead RB if you will. And then 40% to ‘others’. When McCoy is fully healthy, and the game stakes are more elevated/the opponent more difficult…we might see McCoy hitting the 70% share mark.
Right now, there is no reason for Reid to overwork McCoy. Best save him for the playoff stretch. If KC is going to walk away with this division, then there is no need to push McCoy. If that’s true, then if KC is really laying it on an opponent, as they are capable of…there will be less McCoy touches needed.
I would classify McCoy this way for FF – a guy taking RB2-3 touches on a team/offense that offers RB1 result potential. McCoy can touch the ball around 12-16 times a game and still be a strong RB2, borderline RB1. He’s tracking as a middle of the pack RB2 in PPR YTD…Darrel Williams (8-13-2, 3-43-0/4) coming in and stealing scores, and Williams is actually scoring more PPR PPG right now with his less touches. Getting solid touches with KC = useful for FF.
When you remove the pretender RBs from the top 20 in PPG fantasy (like Jeff Wilson and Darrel Williams), McCoy is top 15-18 range. Very solid/useful but not likely a ‘wow’ for fantasy with any consistency. There will be ‘wow’ games but also a lot of ‘OK’ ones.
What happens with Damien Williams back?
Assuming Damien is active this week, we watch to see how he’s used Week 5. Is he the 40% share, split role guy right away…back to what he was doing before and what Darrel has been doing lately? Or is he barely used, and Darrel keeps that 30-40% role?
All I can say is – Damien Williams is not the Chiefs lead RB. What I don’t know is whether he’ll even be in their plans going forward. If Damien jumps right back into the 30-40% role and Darrel disappears – that’s a huge sign of respect for Damien and he’s an erratic RB3 for fantasy working with McCoy.
What I have a funny feeling on – Damien returns and is barely used, because Andy Reid isn’t a huge fan and we’re closer to a Damien NFL trade or release than we are him mattering here. This backfield will be McCoy and a ‘Williams’. I’m just not sure which ‘Williams’ yet. I think it’s going to be Darrel, and Damien is going bye-bye, but that’s just speculation on my part.
Damien back as the second fiddle…an RB3. Darrel back as the second fiddle, shaky RB3. McCoy RB2 above it all…with RB1 weeks and RB3 weeks.
Should you trade McCoy or any Williams’? Yes, but I don’t think you’ll get anything that matters. There’s like five RBs that really matter for FF, and then 10 or so that are reliable RB2s, and then a bunch of random events. McCoy as your RB2, you could do worse. What do you think you’re getting in trade? You’re just swapping names around? No one is uber-excited about McCoy…he’s split role, recently limping around, and Damien Williams is returning (and everyone is afraid of Damien). You would trade McCoy as an RB3 value at best…and then have a void of depth in your backfield.
The smart thing to do is just ride it out unless someone blows you away with an offer for McCoy. You want to trade McCoy for fear of whatever Williams – what RB aside from the top 5 isn’t there a fear on for something? You don’t have to try to trade every player who has questions…because all there are in fantasy are players with questions, especially at RB.
I would hold Darrel until we’ll see what’s up this week. If the Chiefs dump Damien or bench him, effectively – Darrel as the McCoy sidekick has value.
-- Is Tyreek returning this week? What happens to the WR group then?
I think Tyreek is coming back this week, and there is no reason for him to take it easy. He’s either healed or he isn’t. If the Chiefs say Tyreek is playing, I’m jumping in…unless they explicitly say he’s not playing unless emergency.
The Chiefs are wise to be coy about it and leave Indy guessing for a game plan all week…and then activate Tyreek Sunday morning and give a bunch of “We’ll see about his touches” comments, but then, at home Week 5, first series, Tyreek jogs out and the place goes nuts – and you ride that momentum of the crowd right away.
Active Tyreek = me playing him in FF. It’s not a sprained ankle or touchy hamstring. His collarbone is either back in place or it isn’t. If he’s active…it must be fine.
When Tyreek returns…
Mecole Hardman (2-9-0/5) disappears into a backup. Redraft Mecole…buh-bye the moment Tyreek is active. Handcuff Tyreek with Hardman if you want but if KC were to lose Tyreek for the season, they’d trade for Sanders-Diggs, etc.
Sammy Watkins (3-54-0/6), the most overrated WR in the NFL for years, goes back to his WR1-WR4 random performances week-to-week, mostly WR2-3 work.
Demarcus Robinson (4-35-0/9) is interesting when/if people drop him. If Tyreek returns, and Robinson has a 3-33-0 line Week 5…he’ll be dropped in most redrafts. He’s likely a rando WR3 with Hill-Watkins-Robinson as the KC trio. Hell, you might as well ride with Mohamed Sanu over Robinson. I fear Robinson becomes the Chris Conley/2017-18 of the group. However, because Hill gets so much attention and Watkins sucks and gets hurt easily…Robinson might have a value during BYE weeks as the guy hanging around on a great passing game. Hardman will not be the #3…Robinson will, under normal circumstances.
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-- Kenny Golladay (5-67-2/7) is so awesome.
Nice stat line here, but if you counted the throws he had that were attempted and/or caught…pretending he caught all his attempted targets + what he really did do…KG would have posted a 9 catch, 125+ yards, 4 TD game.
He’s so ‘the guy’ for Stafford. A true WR1 is emerging.
Before I get too excited and go buy more shares…at GB (Jaire Alexander), MIN (X Rhodes) the next two weeks. Two Chicago events Weeks 10 and 13 and then Minny Week 14. Golladay is great. The schedule ahead makes him a WR2 more than WR1 right now.
-- Ty Johnson (3-13-0, 1-1-0/1) doesn’t appear to be getting any extra push for Detroit. In fact, it was a career high 25 carries for Kerryon Johnson this game.
Ty will not matter until Kerryon gets hurt, and then if a major injury…you assume the Lions would go acquire an RB. I don’t see Ty Johnson, on purpose, as the Lions lead RB in 2019…unless they fall out of the race and Kerryon is hurt. Nor, do they even appear to be trying to get Ty out in space, etc., as a C.O.P. weapon.
Darrell Bevel is the worst O-C in football, so whatever a smart O-C would do…Bevel won’t do that.
-- KC traded for Emmanuel Ogbah (3 tackles, 1 TFL) this offseason…and that’s starting to show signs of a steal. Ogbah is on pace for 10 sacks, 12 TFLs, and 24 QB hits (through 4 games). Ogbah was always a talent/physical freak…he’s starting to shine a bit with his chance in KC/away from Cleveland.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Kerryon
27 = McKissic
11 = Ty Johnson
34 = Darrel Williams
32 = McCoy
03 = D Thompson