2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Eagles 34, Packers 27
Everything you wanted to know about how football is analyzed occurred in this game right here. A single game where the Eagles won and were thus proclaimed great, and the Packers lost so they are now bad and riddled with questions. One game…erased all the three games prior. Either team could’ve won, the Packers were at the goal line at the end…how is this a defining moment for Philly and doom for Green Bay?
Football analysts get to focus on one game on Thursday-Sunday-Monday nights, so they really think they’re doing some deep study of the teams. When really, what happens is, in this one event with two spotlight teams playing – it warps a perspective because everything that happened in front of their eyes is now eternally ‘good’ or ‘bad’…fact from here on in…until next week when the etch-a-sketch is shaken, cleared, and all beliefs are redrawn for another week.
Hell, Colin Cowherd proclaimed Carson Wentz as showing Aaron Rodgers how quarterbacking was done in this game? What game was he watching? Wentz’s 160 yards passing and multiple gifts setting the Eagles in scoring position…that’s overlooked because Philly won, so if you win -- you’re better at everything than the opponents for forever…or until the next shiny object passes by to catch analyst’s attention. I’m supposed to forget Colin assured us Derek Carr was the next Aaron Rodgers…when he had that one good stretch a few years ago? My memory lasts longer than a week. I don’t throw out everything I have studied in football because Daniel Jones had a cool debut.
This game was nearly a blowout by the Packers in the blink of an eye. 7-0, and almost 14-0 start…but the next score was held to a field goal 10-0 with all the momentum. Then the gods shined on Philly…
The ensuing kickoff was a 60+ yard return setting Philly up in prime position for a score…10-7 Green Bay’s lead cut.
The Packers raced down the field again but had to settle for a field goal…13-7.
The ensuing Green Bay kickoff goes out of bounds, Philly set up in great position and they take a 14-13 lead with 2+ minutes left until the half. You’re thinking – oh, man…Rodgers is going down the field to take back the lead. He’s instead strip sacked for another easy Philly score set up. 21-13 Philly. But, of course, Rodgers does down the field before the half with a stellar TD throw and it’s 21-20 Philly but all the hard work by Green Bay and all the luck with Philly.
Philly, at that point, finally realized Jordan Howard is their best running back and they do a great job blocking/running the ball and now start pushing around the Packers defense. Rodgers keeps answering back, but his late game goal line throw was deflected up in the air for a game-ending INT. The play was another obvious pass interference against Philadelphia…one of several that was not called in this game. About 3-4x the Packers were screwed by the refs in this game.
Special team breakdowns, a fumble into a red zone set up, uncalled P.I.’s (while every holding call gets called), and still the Packers were about to tie/win at the end. The Eagles are very lucky, and the Packers very unlucky – and, yet, the Eagles are getting crowned as some amazing team from this. Their defense cannot stop anybody…their defense/team just had a million breaks to get them over this game. I don’t think Green Bay is great, but they were the better team here. They got screwed. I thought that when I watched live, but now re-watching it – it was even worse than I thought. It happens. Welcome to what makes the NFL GREAT…and maddening.
Green Bay falls to 3-1 and play in a huge showdown with Dallas next week, at Dallas. We see Green Bay with 9 wins likely and minimum this season. The schedule is begging them to win 9 games.
Philly is the luckiest team in the NFL aside from Seattle and Detroit. We see winning vs. NYJ next week and then possibly losing five in-a-row (at MIN, at DAL, at BUF, CHI, BYE, NE). We are projecting 8-9 wins with the lean towards 8 wins this season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Speaking of the Philly schedule…you might want to trade Carson Wentz (16-27 for 160 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) like right now if you have him. Forego the NYJ game next week.
Starting Week 6 – at MIN, at DAL, at BUF, then host CHI-BYE-NE.
Trade Wentz, trade Alshon Jeffrey (3-38-1/9).
Trade Jordan Howard (15-87-2, 3-28-1/4) if people will give him big respect. I love him, but this is the week to cash in after that stat line on TNF. The schedule ahead is bad and then you know Pederson still splits and likely gives the lead to Miles Sanders (11-72-0, 0-0-0/0).
Trade Wentz for Rodgers, if Wentz is so magical! Aaron Rodgers (34-53 for 422 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 5-46-0) has a tougher matchup at Dallas next week and then DET-OAK-at KC-at LAC-CAR before their Week 11 BYE.
Wentz and Rodgers are about to go in radically opposite directions for fantasy after Week 5.
-- I thought the Jamaal Williams (INJ) fantasy story was just beginning but the mass amount of Eagles’ cheap head-to-head shots, uncalled pass interferences, and face masks began with knocking Williams to being stretchered off the field with a wicked helmet-to-helmet blow.
Aaron Jones (13-21-0, 6-37-0/7) got a chance to seize the day, but he didn’t. He looked poor on most every touch. Some of that being the Eagles do have a good run defense – just a terrible pass defense. Jones will be an obvious play as long as Williams is out.
-- I just don’t get the allure of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-47-0/7)…or Geronimo Allison (3-52-1/4) for the NFL or for fantasy. I don’t love them, but that Week 6+ schedule should make them relevant.
Just get Allen Lazard (0-0-0/0) in there already, Green Bay! Not likely to happen.
-- How about that Packers’ defense? Top 5-10 in most NFL defensive statistics and then this dud. Now, everyone will want to sell. Especially against Dallas Week 5. You’ll see GB dropped a lot Week 5 waivers.
I don’t love their schedule ahead…at DAL, DET, OAK, at KC. I want to face sackable QBs/offenses and DAL-DET-KC are tied for the 2nd-least amount of sacks allowed in the NFL right now. I’d use them hosting DET-OAK Weeks 6-7, but not with amazing confidence. You could do worse than the GB defense, but outside of Chicago and New England…is there a good fantasy defense anymore?
-- Let’s keep an eye on Jalen Ramsey going to Philly…and Dallas Goedert being in the package sent to Jacksonville. With the schedule ahead, the only hope Philly has is Ramsey helping clean up a defensive mess. Jags, I think, want Goedert and Andre Dillard (rookie 1st-round OL) among other considerations.
It’s not crazy if it were to end up Ramsey headed there for Goedert-Dillard.
Jacksonville’s GM and HC are in win-now mode for their jobs, so it would take players not picks for Ramsey.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = J Graham
19 = Tonyan
18 = M Lewis
47 = Ertz
43 = Goedert
33 = Howard
22 = Sanders
07 = Sproles