2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Giants 24, Redskins 3
At one point in this game, the Redskins turned to Dwayne Haskins…and thus we had a Daniel Jones vs. Haskins battle. I heard some announcer exclaim on a highlight show…”We are watching the future of the NFL here, two guys that will be battling each other for a long time.”
While watching this ‘epic battle’, I thought… I guess this is historic. Rarely do you get to see two of the worst 1st-round draft pick QBs get to face each other as rookies.
Since they are future busts, we may not get to see it many more times…so, if you went to the game – save your ticket stub for the memories. You got to see some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL happening in a game this year.
I’ll explain more on these two guys in the player section.
As for this game, I watched the Redskins give up right away. They are done. They fought some the first three weeks, but they mailed this one in and the Jay Gruden to-be-fired clock is definitely ticking. He already lost management, which is the worst in the NFL. Now, he’s lost the players. The Redskins aren’t going anywhere so they’ll let Gruden run this into the ground/hang himself with it a little longer to make sure he’s good and ready to be fired. After Week 9, the Redskins will be 1-8 and heading into a BYE and can make a nice switch then. However, if they lose to Miami Week 6 to fall to 0-6, then it could be over right there. If they beat Miami, they will then lose their next three and the BYE gives them the perfect time to get Haskins + new coach in for back-to-back home games Week’s 11-12.
The Redskins are headed to a 1-15/2-14 type season and possibly get the #1 pick in the draft. Miami HAS to lose to Washington in Week 6, or they risk their tanking not fully working. Gruden is going to tank Week 5 to the Pats…knowing he’ll lose no matter what. He’s going to rest starters as best he can and get ready for Week 6 to win…to make sure when he’s fired, he didn’t leave the Redskins the #1 draft pick. Beating Miami will be Gruden’s parting middle finger to management.
The Giants are living a lie. A lucky win over Tampa Bay and then facing a Redskins team who just played worse than the Giants for NYG to win. This is a bad 2-2 team that’s going to get steamrolled by Minnesota this week. We project the Giants to 4-5 wins, possibly 6 wins at best.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The problems with Daniel Jones (23-31 for 225 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 3-33-0) are so obvious to me, I can’t believe no one in football sees it…but they see what they want to see 24/7. I just listened to Colin Cowherd rant about Mason Rudolph being babied with easy throws. Daniel Jones is making a living off little dump passes to Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard and watching them then do all the yardage work…but since Daniel Jones is ‘accepted’, THEY don’t see that. THEY aren’t looking for it either, because they’ve already decided Jones was a future Hall of Famer from his magnificent preseason work.
Jones makes hay off little tosses short on crossing patterns mostly, and that’s only when Jones isn’t throwing passes to the other team. He had two picks here, shoulda had 4 of them. I see it so clearly…anytime there’s anything around Jones he leans his body back and throws while leaning back. He almost never throws by driving the football forward unless he has all day. Even when he is clean, he tends to lean back and arm throw. It’s a huge tell of the psyche of a QB…I saw it with him at Duke.
When he leans back and arm throws…his passes lack velocity (thus the ‘weak arm’ label THEY also gave him pre-Draft) and those all-arm balls often lack a spiral. He can get away with it on many short, open throws but when he needs to make plays against good defenses down field a little – he’s ripe for issues. As he had against lowly Washington. Good luck against Minnesota.
Jones has OK instincts, so when everything is managed a la the Pat Shurmur short pass/Sam Bradford experience offense…quick dumps and screens and swings…it’s all OK. When he has to create – it’s over. You’ll see. He’s in a huge trouble ahead. When I see “Jones is working with ___ to chance/improve his throwing mechanics” in the offseason…it will then be obvious to everyone (and those ‘mechanical fix’ things never work for bad QBs).
Jones is going to have a lesser than Ryan Tannehill type career arc ahead. The NFL is pretty easy for most all college QBs, so if you got the job and have some blocking and half a brain and half an arm…you can accumulate some stats on short stuff/preordained stuff. You’re just not taking your team to the promised land.
-- The good news for Daniel Jones is that Dwayne Haskins (9-17 for 107 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs) is 10x worse, so it hides the Jones problem from view that was on display here.
Haskins has one good-looking moment/throw for every 2-4-8 empty, mediocre, bad ones. Haskins has too much DeShone Kizer in him. If Haskins were trained some for 3-4 years, then maybe he’d be semi-competent to be a backup. But he’ll get thrown in the fire and get destroyed before he can get off the ground.
Haskins is going to be a spectacular bust.
If I were Jay Gruden, I would put Haskins out there vs. New England and let him get killed. Then go Colt McCoy (or Keenum) Week 6 to beat Miami. Then ‘who cares’ from there.
-- What impact do these two bad QBs have on the receivers?
Jones isn’t totally terrible. He has some smarts and runs an easy completion system. Guys will get PPR numbers.
Sterling Shepard (7-76-0/9) will have plenty of these types of games/stat lines, but now cut into by returning Golden Tate.
Evan Engram (4-54-0/7) is in better position…you can dump him off simple passes and let him make magic with them. Engram can be fine, but he will have stat lines like this too many times with Jones. All we want is heavy targeting for EE in fantasy and let him do the rest…and that’s what is happening so far with Engram-Jones.
If I owned Terry McLaurin (DNP), as soon as he was cleared – I would trade him right away. Don’t wait. He’s going to get squashed by the Pats, then he will pop against Miami…not a bad week to trade him/probably THEE week to trade him. The schedule ahead is trouble + once Haskins is in, Terry is in big trouble. McLaurin has a name/value up with D.J. Chark-Sutton, etc. I’d take either (in redraft or dynasty) for McLaurin after or during Miami week…or now just to get it locked in.
-- Wayne Gallman (18-63-1, 6-55-1/7) had a solid enough game versus this terrible Redskins effort. He won’t be so fortunate against Minnesota this week. You’d be wise to trade Gallman this week to someone who needs an RB for a week and who will overpay.
Rookie UDFA Jonathan Hilliman (10-33-0) saw a lot of carries for his debut. He was getting some goal line work but fumbled trying to score and killed any momentum he was gaining.
-- FYI, Wendell Smallwood (1-14-0/1) actually played! It might not be long before Smallwood gets some more touches, because Gruden needs someone who cares…someone playing for their life. It’s probably just easier to put AP out there all the time so he doesn’t mouth off/bother you during the week.
Why the Redskins haven’t traded Adrian Peterson to a contender/pretender for anything they could get is beyond me. He might be a decent backup for Leonard Fournette.
Washington should trade Chris Thompson to the Raiders, so Jay can work with him again next/this season.
-- My man, Cole Holcomb (4 tackles, 1 FF) is getting his snaps reduced. He’s playing hard, making some plays (a nice forced fumble this game). He’s making some rookie mistakes, but no worse for the team than Jon Bostic (who is now starting). Holcomb should be playing/being developed now, not Bostic playing and getting burned like he has for years as a journeyman LB.
Holcomb is no longer viable for IDP 2019 until further notice. His immediate future will be shaky minus Gruden in 2020+ potentially.
-- It might be scary, but Week 6 Washington is at Miami. That’s going to be a viable DST play.
Washington players will be motivated for that one game…you would think. To make sure they at least win one game. Gruden wants that game to stick it to Redskins’ management. Miami wants to lose, in theory. Gruden may promise the team no practices or an ice cream party or something for them to get that win. If I were him, I would fly into Miami last second. Have a curfew. Not let the players out at night in Miami but promise them if they win – the team will stay an extra day and no practice Monday-Tuesday for them to party Sunday-Monday in Miami. Lose…and we all go home Sunday night.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Gallman
27 = Hilliman
45 = P Richardson
39 = Quinn
29 = Harmon
22 = Rob Davis
05 = Sims
72 = Bostic
43 = Holcomb
26 = S.D. Hamilton