2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Saints 12, Cowboys 10
There’s not much to say here – two good teams really went at it. There were chances to win on both sides right down to the wire. The Saints were at a disadvantage without Brees but did have the Sunday Night home crowd benefit. Both defenses came to play, as is the trend with these two teams, and one of them won but could’ve lost and vice-versa.
It was more of a statement for Dallas…not being able to go to New Orleans without Brees and winning – it kinda says, ‘We’re not next level.’ Dallas has had an easy schedule up to this game and weren’t great but good in three easy wins…and at their first resistance (Week 4) they couldn’t wrestle control of the game and couldn’t manage to score in the 4th-quarter. We all might have gotten a bit too far out on Dallas enthusiasm.
If the Cowboys lose this week, very possible with LT Tyron Smith out, that will set off a football/national week of discussions on how Dak Prescott is NOT a franchise QB. If Dallas wins, then it’s a week long discussion on how he IS a franchise QB and needs to be paid. That’s how your football analysis works – what happened five minutes ago is everything.
I would say this – this Green Bay game Week 5 is a tipping point between these two teams. If Dallas loses, I think they might finish at .500 or lower and Jason Garrett is toast for 2020. The schedule is more unkind than not ahead for Dallas, especially now that Detroit is decent (DAL at DET Week 11). The winner of GB v. DAL has major playoff/season long implications.
The Saints may look back on this Week 4 game and it be the real charmed moment of 2019. The Panthers are a very good team and with this win, the Saints stay a game ahead of Carolina instead of drawing to a co-NFC South lead. The Saints have an @JAX, @ CHI Weeks 6-7 issue, likely without Brees. If the Saints lose those two games, they should be 4-3 as Brees returns…instead of a 3-4 panic, had they lost to Dallas here on top of losing the two road trip games. The Saints are headed to 9-10 wins and a fight with Carolina for the division title…a fight they likely win. The Saints end the season (Wks 16-17) outdoors in the cold both games – that could be a problem v. TEN and CAR. If Tampa Bay beats the Saints this week, in an upset…all hell will have broken loose in the NFC South.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Well, it was nice while it lasted…
Dak Prescott (22-33 for 223 yards, 0 TD/ 1 INT) was a hot thing in fantasy. Now playing a pasty and having poor FF numbers this game…it has rolled Dak all the way back to his normal ‘respected’ but not elite for fantasy. When Green Bay holds him down Week 5…he will fall back to…”Should I start Dak or ___ (Minshew, Winston, Dalton, etc.)”
But then a turn back up will occur starting Week 6…at NYJ, PHI, BYE, at NYG offers some hope and then he’ll be crushed by Weeks 10-15 with MIN, at DET, at NE, BUF, at CHI, any (maybe) LAR. I’ve been pointing it out this issue for weeks. If you didn’t trade Dak already, hot, you’re kinda stuck with him now. You could have worse QBs to be stuck with Weeks 6-9.
If I had Dak, I would be trying to get out now if there is anyone still kinda into how he started the season and what his current PPG ranking is YTD in fantasy. There’s more worry than potential ahead, unless he turns into a crazy runner of the ball. In 6pts per pass TD…he may really fall. 300+ yard bonuses are going to be rare. It’s a tough spot because most people don’t really believe in Dak for FF.
-- Everyone is crying about their RBs and desperately wanting to ditch their guy for some other magical guy.
You look and see (for example) Derrick Henry and cry about how he’s got the stacked boxes. You wonder what is up with David Johnson. You hate Leonard Fournette…no, wait, now you love him after last week.
You look at your RB depth chart and IF ONLY you had the great Ezekiel Elliott (18-35-1, 6-30-0/7)!!!
YTD PPG RB scoring in PPR…
#7 = David Johnson
#9 = Derrick Henry
#11 = Fournette
#12 = Elliott
#13 = Saquon (Oh, but he missed half a game with that injury…but David Johnson did too earlier this year. It’s true and real, but…)
I say this to point out…many look at their RBs and see the worst. Think the worst. Dream up scenarios why they will fail. Make reaching trade attempts in vain for the guy who killed LAST WEEK. The #1 email I got this week, “Hey, R.C.! I’m going to offer ___ to try to get Leonard Fournette.” Everyone hated Fournette up until about Sunday 6pmET. He was a failure who never lives up to the hype. You regretted drafting him. You’re glad you didn’t draft him. One week later…best RB in fantasy, apparently.
Your mindset on your RBs is going to kill a lot of you. You’re always creating RB problems in your mind and then flailing away at trying to solve the faux-problems...or the natural problems everyone has with limited solution opportunities.
But somehow Zeke is immune. No one is ever down on him…just down on everyone else not McCaffrey-Kamara-Cook. Heck, when Brees went down…some people were trading off Kamara. When Cam went out/was fading and McCaffrey was stuffed by TB on TNF…some people were trying to trade him off the following week.
It’s like a mental disorder the way we perceive RBs in fantasy…and thus why everyone is trying to draft them in the first 25 picks of every redraft, etc.
I’m not sure I had a point here, but Zeke just reminded me of wanting to rant about this for the thousandth time. I’m not doing it to make me some above-it-all…I’m trying to un-brainwash you…because I was once brainwashed the way. It’s not a one week or one-year process to fix. It’s years and reminding and re-reminding myself. I do it so you don’t ruin your team or panic trade at the wrong time with the wrong RBs.
-- Michael Gallup may play this week for Dallas.
Gallup’s return worries me even more for Amari Cooper (5-48-0/8), because (a) I think Cooper is highly overrated and was manhandled by Marcus Lattimore here and I see his schedule ahead, and (b) Gallup is better than Amari, as a talent, 2019, in my book.
Gallup’s schedule ahead worries me too…BUT he might be the winner as these top pass D’s with their shutdown corners – they will play Amari and Gallup might save the day.
Oh, and Devin Smith (0-0-0/0)…the great sleeper play…total washout the last two weeks. Dumb idea by me.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (23-30 for 193 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has been the main QB for the Saints in four games (3 this season and a Week 17 start in 2018). He is averaging in those four starts…
163.3 yards, 0.75 TDs/0.50 INTs per game.
Teddy is not to be feared for fantasy…nor is he great help to anyone but Kamara-Thomas, because that’s all he’s throwing to.
-- The Dallas defense is good/talented, and their schedule is mostly nice the rest of the way.
Week 5 vs. GB is a touch shaky. Week 7 v. PHI is hit-and-miss. Week 12 at NE is trouble. Weeks 15-16 LAR-PHI isn’t great. Mostly a useable DST ahead.
-- The Saints defense is a mystery but shows signs of something possibly useful.
They couldn’t stop Houston Week 1. They had a letdown vs. LAR Week 2. They crushed Seattle, but then couldn’t stop Seattle’s comeback effort…a lot of garbage time work there. Then they just manhandled Dallas in a big spot.
The Saints defense is a better play when they are at home. Versus TB this week, with Jameis’s propensity for turnovers…I like the Saints-DST this week. At JAX and at CHI the next two weeks…could be good, could be a letdown. Let’s see what they do vs. TB this week to get a better idea whether this is a DST to trust ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = MK Thomas
50 = Ginn
43 = Carr
41 = Josh Hill
39 = J Cook
46 = Witten
17 = Jarwin