2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10
Well, now everyone is going to jump off any ‘watch out for the Cardinals’ bandwagon. Not me. I’m still hanging on…holding onto a rope off the back, being dragged behind and across the gravel.
Let me make the case for Arizona STILL not being as bad as you think…and definitely not as bad as the media is going to crush them.
The first four drives of this game…
1) Drove right down the field, settled for a field goal (missed)
2) Picked off screen pass, Seattle TD
3) Drove right down the field, settled for a field goal (made)
4) Drove right down the field, settled for a field goal (missed)
Arizona has been moving the ball well their last three games, but cannot finish.
Both teams drove down into scoring range on the other five times in this game. Total plays in the game were even. Seattle had 19 more total yards. They had identical rushing totals. Identical penalties (7). Both teams sacked 4 times.
The difference in this game, to some degree – Arizona could not convert 3rd-downs when needed to in the 1st-half. They had drives blown up in the 2nd half by penalties and sacks…back-to-back drives 2nd-half where they were put into 3rd & 15+ and just played it safe and punted away really let the air out of their balloon.
Take away the pick six screen pass attempt, and Arizona had eight legit football drives in the game, and were in Seattle scoring territory (or scored) on five of the 8.
It seems like every time Arizona is rolling and about to pop…a holding call, or unsportsman-like call hits Their defense had some great moments of stopping Seattle, and then would get called for taunting or an inadvertent hands to the face on the QB. Arizona shot themselves in the foot several times…and they have all season.
I mention this to note…between the penalties…they are actually playing some pretty decent football. Even the defense here. I don’t know if the Cardinals will ever get it together, but it seems like it’s just on edge waiting for one more push to start rolling. When/if that happens, it may be too late for fantasy 2019. You think they’re dead, BUT at Cincy, Atlanta and at NYG the next three weeks – Arizona may click and suddenly be 3-3-1 going to Brees-less New Orleans Week 8.
…or be 0-6-1 and be a laughingstock.
You think I’m delusional? Did I not say, last week, let’s watch to see if Cleveland ‘kicked in’ this week and went to Baltimore and beat the Browns and turned their whole season around? Matt Kelley thought I was nuts for making that statement last week. Today…Ladies and Gentlemen, your first-place Browns.
Seattle has to be the luckiest 3-1 team in the league. Shoulda lost to Cincy Week 1. Caught the Steelers losing Ben in-game. Just let Arizona beat itself here. The host the Rams this week – and if there were ever a reversal of fortune game coming up…watch how badly the Rams thump Seattle. We are tracking Seattle for 8 wins this season, still. If they beat the Rams Week 5, I’ll change my tune on them. I think they might be the biggest fraud 3-1 team in the league.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The weekly Kyler Murray (22-32 for 241 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 4-27-1) report…
I know you’re mad at him for not rolling 40+ fantasy points, I’m not happy either, but he was the #12 QB for fantasy (4pts per pass TD) this week, just behind #11 Mahomes. ‘Bad’ Kyler games are still QB1-ish events…and we’re so close to him clicking over from fringe QB1 to fringe top 5-7 QB for fantasy…even if the team stinks.
I re-watched this game and saw the same things I have each week – I’ve never seen a QB so smart as a passer at this stage. He sees the field so well…that includes tucking and scrambling when everything is covered vs. throwing it into trouble. If anyone is open, he’s like a homing device finding them and planting a throw on them. I’m still very impressed. I know it when I see it.
I’m not just defending ‘my guy’. If I need to run from a ‘my guy’, I will – example, I’m done with Trubisky for several reasons. But I think everyone is missing the brilliance that is teetering on the edge of ‘happening’ here with Kyler. I stayed with Baker last week, defending his play as brilliant Week 3 in a loss to the Rams -- and he played great this week…and he is great…and I’ve not waived (but I still fear what I see in that offense and with those WRs for fantasy). I’m nervous about fantasy Baker the next few weeks. But I’m on the edge of my seat each week waiting to see if THIS is the week for the Kyler mega-event…I can see it…it’s so close.
That’s why I keep writing…Kyler is your only ‘downtrodden’ FF QB lurking in the discount bin that might save your season – emphasis on MIGHT. I’m not sure if Week 5 is the moment or Week 15. I just don’t know…I just know it’s going to happen eventually, and it will be fantasy glorious.
YTD, Kyler is #14 in fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD)…a hiccup from the top 10. He’s not killing you while you wait. Please get him as your QB2 while the price is down about as low it will get. If your team/QB is dying…get him as your QB1 and shove your chips all-in. It might not work…but it might. It definitely isn’t with Daniel Jones or Marcus Mariota or Mason Rudolph or even with guys like Philip Rivers or Jacoby Brissett – but Kyler might explode and save FF-seasons. You want a cheap ticket on that.
-- Russell Wilson (22-28 for 240 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) COULD be a top 5 fantasy QB. However, here’s the difference with Kyler and Russell for fantasy 2019…
Wilson’s O-C and coach are actively working against him for output. They want to run Chris Carson every play.
Kyler’s coach is trying to set league records for offense.
Wilson’s the better NFL QB, and he might be better for 2019 fantasy as Seattle’s primary run plan dies and they ask Russell to bail them out. Consider…Wilson would be below Kyler in FF scoring per game if you ignored the Russell Week 3 garbage time festival.
There is a case Wilson could rise to #1-2-3 QB in fantasy 2019, but there is more of a case for Kyler to rise…and the price is much cheaper today.
-- As I wrote in ‘three things from Sunday’…I’m pretty much done with chasing Rashaad Penny (DNP) or C.J. Prosise (3-4-1) or Marshawn Lynch or whomever you think can take down Chris Carson (22-104-0, 4-41-0/4). I shoulda been buying low Carson last week.
The clues were all there last week. There was not just some usual chatter about ball security improvement needs with Carson. The coaches almost did a speaking tour, like they were running for President…and their campaign message was that everything related to Chris Carson is A-OK.
Fumble issues? Hardly.
Walter Payton had a lot of fumbles in his career too. The great ones all have to deal with it.
Also, did you know…Carson has really long arms and that causes some of his issues? The Seattle coaches busted that one out on us too.
I’m relaying things Seattle is stump speeching to everyone and the media is echoing.
The media can’t wait to support and excuse Chris Carson. Mitch Trubisky? Good riddance. That guy is the worst. Any WR who has a skin cell touch a ball but doesn’t catch it… DRRRRRRRRRRRRROPPPPPPPPPPPPP!! They scream. But Chris Carson constant fumbling – he just needs to clean that up and everyone really believes in him.
OK, I got the message. I shoulda listened instead of trying to interject ‘WWRCD’ into my football logic. Only when teams are losing is anything a problem with their holy running back. So, until the Seahawks lose 2-3 games in-a-row, I’m the biggest Chris Carson supporter there is. He’s my favorite RB now. No RB gets better treatment by his coaching staff. None. Ezekiel Elliott wishes Jerry Jones loved him as much as Carroll love Carson.
-- Down game for Tyler Lockett (4-51-0/4) – a good time to kick the tires on a ‘buy low’ because most people think he’s a WR2 who had some great aberration games Weeks 2-3, and when they look they see more the Lockett from Week 1 or Week 4…so, if you have something to dazzle them with to lose focus on WR1 Lockett you might swipe him from them.
-- David Johnson (11-40-0, 8-99-0/11)…you might be better off with Chris Carson.
As a runner, DJ has now not looked good for three seasons in a row…partial seasons as some of them have been. I don’t know if it’s the line or him, but I’d love to see him reel off some big runs by accident. Every run seems tackles the moment he’s revving up through the hole. You saw it, if you watched this game – Chase Edmonds (6-37-0) had more spark running it, and they ran him on purpose early.
As a receiver, DJ is in prime FF position because Kyler needs an outlet when the blitzkrieg is coming after him all the time.
I’d like to see a big DJ day via showcasing talent, not via excessive screen passes, to pull me back in on him. He’s not doing anything various backup NFL RBs couldn’t do if in the same spot. I don’t see elite DJ anymore. I think it’s there, but I haven’t seen it for a while. I think it’s there, but reality says it’s not. I was about to say this very same thing about Leonard Fournette about halfway through his Week 4 game, but then he had his breakout -- so, we have to be cautious on our interpretations being about the player’s talent or their surrounding circumstances.
DJ is going to be a top 10 PPR RB for fantasy because of the touches, which is what I was chasing all along…but him doing something amazing with them and taking it to some astronomical level – I haven’t seen that guy in a while. I don’t know if he exists anymore.
-- Will Dissly (7-57-1/8) is the big conundrum of the week. Is he a sell high? Would you rather have Dissly or Ertz or Kittle right now? Which one scores more TDs?
Dissly has played five NFL games with 4 or more targets in a game and has scored 6 TDs in those games.
Maybe he’s the perfect guy to go with Wilson? A reliable hand who is always on the field because he can block like a mother and is a better athlete/receiver than anyone thought back in his pre-Draft days.
I like Kittle more than Dissly still, but Ertz…maybe/maybe not. Dissly is getting into the argument of being the best not-top-five TE (Kelce-Waller-Engram-Kittle-Ertz)…and he might be leading the pack (over Austin Hooper). Another good game against bad-against-the-TE Rams and Dissly’s value will really be rocking.
I’m on the fence. I feel like this is a peak time to move him, because if he goes 3-33-0/4 this week he goes from everyone’s new favorite TE1 to ‘should I start Dissly or Delanie this week’ guy the following week. However, Dissly has been working game after game (his down games have been him hurt or returning from injury). It’s not just a 1-2 game blip. However, he hasn’t played many NFL games.
If he’s the rock steady #6 tight end for fantasy the rest of the way…do you have to try to get cute getting the #3-4 TE for him in a deal…paying Dissly + ___ for the honor?
-- Christian Kirk (4-43-0/5) got his foot/ankle bent back pretty ugly late in this game, but it didn’t appear to be a break or tear. Might be a 1-2 week thing, but that sucks because the Cardinals are getting ready to get that sweet 3-game schedule ahead. Kirk may miss all of it.
If Kirk is out, Damiere Byrd (if healthy) comes back into play.
Andy Isabella (1-5-0) might be getting ready to shock the world. He took a jet sweep 2nd-3rd play of this game, for a sweet 16-yard run. BUT…it’s Arizona. That gets called back for a penalty. Any good play by Arizona is a guaranteed penalty call. Isabella has a spark Arizona is DYING for.
-- Arizona cut D.J. Swearinger (8 tackles) after this game. I was watching live and there were two plays that I was thinking that Swearinger looked like #26 Mark Barron/Pittsburgh – a guy not really trying all that much, or just sucks. So, I’m not surprised.
I’d tell you to watch #26 Mark Barron and laugh on MNF vs. Cincy, but in a national TV game…guys like him know to up their con game a bit. We’ll see.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = DJ
13 = Edmonds
59 = Kirk
53 = Fitz
53 = Sherfield
36 = KeeSean
08 = Isabella
48 = Carson
14 = Prosise