2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 4 – Titans 24, Falcons 10
I have to say, my walk-away-from-the-rewatch-session feeling here…the Falcons aren’t as bad as they’re being made out to be (not good, but not terrible/awful). And the Titans are OK but had some sweet luck in this game to get over early and kinda hung on from there.
The Falcons had a fumble lost and a stuffed 4th & 1 early on while the Titans hit on some passes that where ill-advised but then somehow hit for big plays. The Titans were the better team, but it’s not like they’re awesome and the Falcons are totally terrible.
We are tracking the Titans for 7-8 wins. If they lose to Buffalo this week, then the 7 wins is more likely and the season is going to start to get away from them.
Atlanta is playing for their lives this week at Houston. If they win, they might sneak back into the playoff talk for weeks to come. If they lose, likely, they may really spiral from here. This is a huge game this week for them. They have four road games the first 6 weeks and that’s hurting them on top of not being very good in general. Assuming they lose this week, they are headed to a 6-7-win season at best. Maybe worse as they breakup the team before the trade deadline.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The A.J. Brown (3-94-2/3) experience…
You could see this in one of two ways…
The good way – the guy keeps getting intermediate passes, turning upfield, and defenders are missing tackles, running into each other as Brown chugs by them for big plays…like his 50+ yard TD here. It was nothing special, but then ended up a huge catch-and-run TD out of nowhere, in an innocent/normal play. At some point, this isn’t luck…it’s he’s a talent on the rise.
The bad way – His 2nd TD here was an easy offensive pass interference not called on a shot TD fade pass. He’s being left wide open some because defenses aren’t threatened…which makes sense because he was so important here that he only saw three targets. And this passing game is ultra-weak, so there’s little chance he matters. *See also, Corey Davis’s entire NFL career.
-- If the Falcons are going to have issues all season, then Matt Ryan will lead the league in pass attempts…which he does so far (176).
If Ryan keeps this up, you’re going to prosper from it in fantasy not only with obvious Julio…but also Austin Hooper (9-130-0/11) keeps this up, and the hidden WR/flex gem winner in this could be Mohamed Sanu (9-91-0/12).
I know we’re all bored by Sanu for FF, and I don’t love him either. Been on that hot stretch train before…it always ends in misery after 2-3-4 weeks of use, but there are some good times prior.
Ryan not only throws the most passes, but he’s completing them at a 70% clip…there’s PPR happiness to go around. Ryan has the most pass attempts, completions, 2nd most yards, 3rd most TDs in the NFL…2 TDs from tying Mahomes-LJax (and all his v. Miami) season-to-date. Atlanta is doing what I wanted Arizona to do for fantasy passing game output.
Did you know Sanu has more catches than Julio YTD (24-23) this season?
Falcons Targets YTD 2019:
37 = Julio
33 = Hooper
31 = Sanu
23 = Ridley
I’m sure Sanu will go 3-31-0 when you get him, and Ridley will go off. I’m just saying…here’s a fantasy depth WR, a possible useful flex PPR WR emerging if you need him – emerging because they are throwing so much.
-- Part of the ATL pass game charm is – they cannot run the ball. Devonta Freeman (12-28-0, 8-72-0/9) cannot get out of his own way. At least he’s getting in on that passing game now.
I’m a small ‘buy low’ on Freeman…on the cheap as ‘depth’, a ‘body’ to have ahead for BYE weeks, etc.
He has some upside if ATL get their act together and the O-Line gets healed up.
-- Marcus Mariota’s (18-22 for 227 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) looked great here (on paper) and all season – 7 TDs/0 INTs so far. However, watching this game and seeing what happened made me think through his season – there’s been a lot of ‘not don’t throw that’ plays that connected, and then 3-4 dump passes to A.J. Brown that turn into big plays that didn’t seem to have a chance at first grab.
I’m not seeing Mariota create/push…he’s just sitting back and receiving gifts. Maybe he will all season as teams stack Derrick Henry, but I’m not as impressed with Mariota’s clean start after thinking about it more and seeing some of the luck that happened here.
-- The Titans-DST should be a solid play the next 4-5 weeks -- Allen/Barkley, Flacco, Rivers, Winston, KAllen/Cam ahead.
The Titans aren’t perfect at all on defense – middle of the pack vs. the run and pass in most games, but they can get to the QB pretty well – 6th in the league in sacks. Josh Allen is sackable and has mass turnovers, so that’s a great play this week (or v. Barkley). We’ll see how hot after that as they face a lot of ‘OK’ veteran QBs and Rivers is good, but LAC’s line is a problem and they’ve been getting sacked at a top 10 rate in the league.
If all you have to work with is Tennessee for a DST, which is great this week and maybe good for a few weeks after…you want Cleveland’s-DST in the hole within a week or two for the Browns-DST run from Week 9 on. *See the Browns-Ravens recap for more info on the Titans-Browns DST theory.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Freeman
30 = Ito Smith
54 = Corey Davis
38 = Sharpe
26 = AJ Brown
25 = Humphries
47 = Henry
17 = Lewis