2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 5 – Cardinals 26, Bengals 23
Finally, Arizona wins a game! They were cruising along by two scores, leading 23-9 as the 4th-quarter was winding away, playing good defense and doing their same old ‘get to goal-to-go a lot and kick field goals’ routine too much – and then Cincy went on a drive and scored a TD with 4+ minutes left. Arizona then stalled a drive quick for like the first time in the game, punted right back to Cincy who then came downfield and popped a quick TD to tie it with 2+ minutes left. I’m thinking, during the live watch – You’ve gotta be kidding me?
Arizona then whipped downfield, led by a 20+ yard run by Kyler…setting them up in the red zone for YET another field goal…and the last-second win.
It was another step forward in the evolution of the Cardinals. Offense started to click a little more. Kyler had more time than usual to throw. The defense is playing with energy every week, overcoming its extreme youth with effort.
Arizona has ATL and at NYG the next two weeks. Two winnable games. What if they are 3-3-1 in Week 7…and the last NFC wild card spot is 4-3 record…with Patrick Peterson returning Week 7? Those 5.5/6.0 ‘overs’ win total bets are not dead yet. We are tracking Arizona between 5-7 wins with 6 wins the most likely outcome.
This was the one Cincy needed…now, they are likely to lose their next three to fall to 0-8 before their Week 9 BYE. We are tracking Cincy at 1-2 wins for the season after this loss.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (20-32 for 253 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 10-93-1) report…
I stand by my recurring statement the past few weeks – the only QB who could really fly as high/out-do Patrick Mahomes, in FF scoring, is Kyler Murray (over time, week in and week out). Had Kyler connected on two of his multiple goal-to-go passes for a TD here…33+ fantasy points in 4pts per pass TD, 37+ in 6pts. If he added one more run to click over 100+ rushing -- some would have rec’d that bonus.
He’s soooo close to the brass ring.
I re-watch these games and I cannot even explain how naturally talented of a thrower Kyler Murray is. Patrick Mahomes is the only other thrower I watch and just sit and shake my head in disbelief of the natural talent I’m seeing. Kyler, in some situations, is a better natural talent than Mahomes. It’s just this offense is maddening around the goal line. The good news…they get there pretty much at will.
Ride or die with Kyler if you don’t have Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. It may not click in time to be the catalyst we need to go to the next level, but it might…and just at the right time (down the playoff stretch).
-- David Johnson (17-91-0, 3-65-0/5) is having back issues. Might not be much of anything…might be something. Thus, my higher rankings of Chase Edmonds (8-68-1, 3-18-0/4). That’s not my only reason…
For the 2nd-3rd week in a row, I’ve thought, watching and re-watching these games – Chase Edmonds is running the ball WAYYYY better than David Johnson. I’m not the only person who thinks that, I believe Kliff Kingsbury sees it too. Edmonds carries in games this season (starting with Week 1): 1-1-3-6-8. He had a career high 68 yards rushing and his first TD this game. Kliff is getting him in the game, and into touches more and more.
Johnson is not in danger of being jumped…just in danger of a few touches to Edmonds. DJ will still get his work and FF numbers, just Edmonds is going to work as well. The two of them combined for 9 targets, 6 catches, for 83 yards receiving – they are like another WR in this offense, which is smart.
I think Edmonds is going to see 3-7 carries and 2-5 targets a game weekly from here on in, in most games. He just adds another neat component. He’s a talent and needs to be in the game. He’s a guy who can work in bye week fill-in desperation – someone getting some touches right along with DJ.
-- Christian Kirk playing this week? I’d say it’s 50-50, right now. If he is limited in practice today…that’s a good sign. If he doesn’t practice at all today…not good.
Andy Isabella (2-11-0) saw no targets with Kirk out, but two more carries. Only 10 snaps. Arizona is not taking him seriously at all at this point.
-- Same old, same old stuff for the Cincy offense…Mixon and Boyd-led.
Is Joe Mixon (19-93-0, 1-16-0/1) a ‘buy low’ in FF? Not really. I don’t see a wild upside here. This new coaching staff, this bad O-Line…Mixon has yet to rush for 100+ yards or run for a TD. He has one TD all season (receiving).
In a winnable game, Mixon came out on the first drive and ran the ball 8 times for 60 yards. He had 11 carries, 33 yards rushing, and one catch the rest of the game.
You want to buy in on this?
He’s an RB2 with an RB1 name in 2019.
-- Tyler Eifert (2-14-0/4) is being rumored in NFL deals, which makes a ton of sense. The Patriots are being mentioned, FYI.
-- Rookie WR Stanley Morgan (1-6-0/2) saw his first NFL action for Cincy. Don’t be surprised if he starts clicking 2-3 catches in games without John Ross and making a little noise. Talented receiver, but nothing for FF 2019.
-- Arizona dumped D.J Swearinger last week, as they should have this summer. The went with their Supplemental Draft 5th-round pick SAF Jalen Thompson (8 tackles) as the main safety this game in his place.
Deionte Thompson (3 tackles) was rotating in just as many snaps but less effective than Thompson here.
Also, in Arizona IDP news, they claimed DL Jonathan Bullard (7 tackles, 1 TFL) off waivers a few weeks ago…he played a high effort game here. He’s played two games and has a TFL each game. He’s playing 50% of the snaps. Someone to keep an eye on in deeper IDP, perhaps.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = A Tate
66 = Boyd
40 = Willis
15 = Erickson
03 = St Morgan
54 = David Johnson
27 = Edmonds
73 = KeeSean Johnson
59 = Sherfield
57 = L Fitz
18 = Ph Cooper
10 = Isabella