2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 5 – Packers 34, Cowboys 24
My reaction leaving the live watch of this game…
- There’s that Packers defense I like, they squashed Dallas and gave up garbage late. I’m a genius locating undervalued DSTs!!
- Ha! Dallas sucks. The easy schedule to start 2019 faked us all.
My reaction after the re-watch…
- Dallas was a little unlucky early, but all the credit in the world to them – they were getting their arses kicked 31-3 and they damn near came back and won this game. The 2nd-half may be the best moment of the Cowboys season to-date – the effort, focus, and ability to comeback in this contest.
They really deserve some kudos here: https://youtu.be/KWnmLrURT5Q
Seriously. I was really impressed with what Dallas did here. Stunned a little, quite frankly.
- The Packers defense had moments, but got lucky early, got momentum and then just melted trying to stop the comeback. I went from ‘Green Bay is a hidden awesome DST still’ to ‘Oh, crap…something is wrong with the Packers defense’ (see: Dallas comeback and Philly spanking prior).
Dallas opened this game and waltzed right down the field. Dak hit Amari Cooper right in the chest with a 20+ yard bullet that could’ve been a catch and short run completion for a TD. Instead, the ball clanks off Amari’s hands and up into the air for a turnover. What should’ve been Dallas 7-0 and the home crowd going ballistic ended up a 7-0 Green bay lead soon after.
And then a 14-0 lead Green Bay.
And then a 17-0 Green Bay at the half.
And then 31-3 Green Bay in the 3rd-quarter.
31-3 deficits into the 3rd-quarter against a good defense should mean general death. Nope. Dallas had legit chances to win this game into the 4th-quarter.
The world sees this as embarrassing for Dallas, but I think it ended up exposing Green Bay as a fraud. There are all kinds of Packers’ issues waiting to combust – the Aaron Rodgers v. Matt LaFleur actual fists flying is coming. Start placing on bets on who fights first – LaFleur v. Rodgers or Baker v. OBJ. I’ve never seen such obvious disdain of a player towards a coach as Rodgers towards LaFleur. This whole thing is going to blow soon, and Aaron Rodgers cannot stop the offensive derailment like he used to anymore. Not sure he wants to/cares to save LaFleur.
We are projecting Green Bay scuffling to 9-wins but 8 or 10 wins possible. I would not be surprised if the Lions upset Green Bay this week and set the dominos tumbling. Too bad it’s an MNF game at Green Bay.
Dallas is once again being destroyed by Jerry Jones. He’s reinforcing Jason Garrett, so you get Tyron Smith out again, and once again the coaches make no blocking adjustments for the missing Smith and just let Dak take a beating from his left side because the backup left tackle is a sieve.
If Dallas stomps Philly Week 7…they are going to cruise to the NFC East title (as long as Dak is healthy). Dallas has a way better roster than Philly, but the gap in coaching talent may be too much for Dallas to overcome vs. the Eagles – and that is squarely Jerry’s fault. We see Dallas just like Green Bay and just like most NFC contenders right now…8-10 wins, with 9-wins the most likely outcome. I’m not sure how nine NFC teams will all finish with 9 wins, but it sure seems/feels like it’s happening.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- For the record, Dak Prescott (27-44 for 2 TDs/3 INTs, 4-27-0) played pretty great in this game. He was let down by that Amari drop early…costing him a TD and giving him an INT – a 10pt fantasy scoring swing.
When the chips were way down, Dak put the team on his back and just did what Aaron Rodgers used to do…make you think you’re never out of it when you have Rodgers. This was a great Dak moment hidden behind knee-jerk/final score reactions by lazy football analysts who want to create ‘hot Dallas talk’ all week and will pull out their ‘Dak is not a franchise QB’ talk…from the same people who thought Daniel Jones was two weeks ago. Idiots and con men, I swear.
Dak is going to have a few weeks of FF-gold left and then the Week’s 10-14/15 schedule is going to take his head off (and everyone will hate him again).
-- Amari Cooper (11-226-1/14) had a monster game, despite the early gaffe. So too did Michael Gallup (7-113-1/14). My sense watching this was…Dak still favors Amari as his primary thought. Gallup is just a nice side piece.
The schedule should feed both of them this next few weeks and then they all drop some from Weeks 10-14…but Gallup might pull through the tough times better as Amari gets all the top CBs on him.
-- Ezekiel Elliott’s (12-62-1, 2-29-0/4) last 16 games (including playoffs)…9 rushing TDs.
His last 16 regular-season games…8 rushing TDs.
His last 22 regular season games…10 rushing TDs.
He is tracking about a rushing TD every two games…8 rushing TD season. He hasn’t had a 2+ rushing TD game since Week 7 of 2017 season.
Last season, 5.1 catches for Zeke per game. Under the new O-C this season, 2.6 catches per game.
Numbers are just down in general for Zeke. Thrived against bad teams earlier this season and was so-so versus better teams. He’s RB #12 in PPR PPG YTD…behind the likes of Derrick Henry, Le’Veon, Fournette, DJ, AK, etc. Phillip Lindsay is near about to pass him.
Just noting before you hold Zeke in too high a regard…the numbers are sliding a bit.
-- Speaking of new offenses killing stars’ output, Aaron Rodgers (22-34 for 238 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is dying with Matt LaFleur.
He had one great game, statistically, this season -- Week 4 v. PHI…the worst pass defense, in my book, in the NFL.
Rodgers is #20 in PPG so far this season (4pts per pass TD).
-- With no Davante Adams here, what WR did Rodgers lean on?
Because they all blow and there is a playbook issue unfolding a la Cleveland where WRs are not getting open on tired routes defenses run for the WRs.
Green Bay scores 34 points in a game and Geronimo Allison has 2 catches and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has one whole catch. MVS is a W-A-S-T-E.
-- Aaron Jones (19-107-4, 7-75-0/8) looked amazing here. I’m not a huge fan but he ran like his life depended upon it. A few weeks ago, Jamaal Williams was about to take his lunch money. The Jamaal concussion allowed Jones to take it back.
I think LaFleur wants to protect Jones from taking too many hits, because he’s a wiry, injury-prone back…so, don’t be surprised if Jamaal Williams returns and takes carries and has all the ‘Free Aaron Jones’ people flipping out. That’s why I’d sell Jones like he’s a top 3-5 PLAYER in fantasy right now.
-- Packers safety Will Redmond (6 tackles, 1 TFL) has been putting up some numbers of late. Playing 50-70% of games, the last two weeks – 7.0 tackles, 0.5 TFLs) per game. If Darnell Savage misses time, Redmond might be a temp winner.
-- Like I said earlier, I thought Green Bay’s defense was awesome in the live watch…then I ran from that on the re-watch. They are good but susceptible. They’ve handled bad offenses and couldn’t contain good ones. The schedule ahead has more unkind/unfavorable matchups. I’m turning away from Green Bay for greener pastures.
Schedule closes great Weeks 13-16. I’ll keep tabs on that for later.
-- The Dallas-DST is better than this game. They tightened up when they absolutely had to late. Not a bad schedule the next nine weeks. Week 7 PHI, Week 8 BYE, Week 12 at NE is no good…but nice otherwise.
Good for pairing with Jacksonville. Like a perfect match.
Weeks 7, 8, 12…JAX has CIN-NYJ-TEN.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Witten
22 = Jarwin
52 = J Graham
34 = M Lewis
07 = Tonyan
50 = A Jones
24 = Carson