2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 5 – Seahawks 30, Rams 29
*Written before Sunday’s games*
If I’m a Rams fan, I’m pissed at this game…lost by a last-second missed field goal by one of the best kickers in the league. Also, Tyler Lockett had a miracle catch, Robert Woods was a millimeter away from a TD catch that would’ve put the Rams up by 9 later in the game -- but it ended up no catch and a field goal versus a TD. Then there was the bogus roughing the passer on Clay Matthews, and then Chris Carson just about butchered the game winning TD catch (but re-grabbed it for the score), and then the game ended on a diving/one-handed fluke interception by Seattle.
The Rams have every reason to believe they should’ve won. This ‘fact’ may also delude the Rams fans away from the other ‘fact’ – this 2019 Rams team is not very good and is getting worse not better as we go. The Rams were pretty well outplayed and out-thought/coaches by Seattle the whole game. It took some luck for the Rams to be in positions to win it. Either team could’ve won, but my judgement of the ‘art’ in this game – Seattle is just better, because Russell Wilson is arguably the single best/most important player in the NFL while the Rams have taken STEPS backwards.
Had the Rams won, they would have taken a big step in repeating as NFC West champs. Now, they are going to be lucky to make the playoffs at this rate. No one is afraid of the Rams anymore. Downgraded O-Line. No running game. But most shockingly – no defense.
The Rams have good coaching and a solid roster, I’m assuming they will get better down the line and be a 9-win team that makes a wild card. Could be a 10-win team that tiebreaks to win the division. Gone is the delusion that they will be back in the Super Bowl at this point.
Seattle is good. They are 4-1, but they are very lucky not to have lost this game (despite outplaying LAR)…and lucky to have won the Steelers game Week 2, and opening day to Cincy. This 4-1 team could easily be 1-4. But they are 4-1. They got a major divisional win here. And they have Russell Wilson, which may be good enough to take the division by attrition.
The Seahawks have a very rough schedule starting Week 10: @SF-BYE-@PHI-MIN-@LAR-@CAR is a stretch they could go 1-4 in…four road games. We are tracking Seattle 8-10 wins. The next four weeks are huge. If Seattle can go 3-1 vs. @CLE-BAL-@ATL-TB the next four weeks, they will be a playoff team for sure. If they stumble to 2-2 over their next four games, with the tough schedule after – they may be more 8-9 wins fighting for a wild card. At Cleveland next week, with the Browns getting back their CBs, could be a pivotal moment for Seattle 2019.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Russell Wilson (17-23 for 266 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs) is getting unleashed…not by choice of the coaches but by the game circumstances. That’s happening a lot this season – which means Wilson is going to have a top 3-5 QB scoring fantasy season.
Mahomes and Lamar are the fantasy gold standards at QB, with the fear Lamar is going to throw (poorly) his way out of it. Dak is going to fall from his current grace on schedule. Brees and Rodgers are no longer ‘those guys’ consistently for fantasy. If you want to try to hang with Mahomes-Lamar matchups, Wilson is one of the better options left on the board.
It’s what I say Kyler Murray is a must buy for teams fading away/with issues in redraft 2019 – he’s the one QB, who I think can surpass them all…in that style of offense and with his feet. He might not get there, but he is the Luke, you’re our only hope guy. Wilson can get into the top 3 consistently but probably not takedown Mahomes-Lamar. Kyler can…possibly.
Baker 2nd-half schedule is going to bring him into the conversation.
If you don’t have Mahomes-Lamar-Wilson, you might be able to buy into Wilson if the current owner thinks they are ‘selling high’ to you. IF you want to…if you believe (because there is a case to be made Wilson is about to regress/succumb to the Seattle pro-run game mindset). You’d have to have the right QB to send back they’d bite on (Dak, Brees/playing, Rodgers). Dak + Terry McLaurin for Wilson type deals I’ve been advocating and sometimes getting – a reasonable QB the other person ‘buys’ and hook one of your WR depth guys THEY love – and you could get Wilson…if you want Wilson.
I’m not saying Wilson is a must buy at all costs, especially after a good week on national TV. But if your Dak-Rodgers types do well this week too, and you want to flip into more secure/talented/with upside Wilson…you might need to do it.
Wilson has a rougher outdoor schedule after Week 9, so be careful – at SF Week 10, MIN Week 13, at LAR Week 14 (if they’re better), at Carolina Week 15. Not devastating but not perfect either.
-- What about Jared Goff (29-49 for 395 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)?
He’s a steady #5-10 fantasy QB…better for 6pts per pass TD leagues with 300+ bonuses. He lost a TD to Woods by inches here and has lost a couple TDs this season to inches and penalties. What he’s becoming is the new Matt Ryan – team is down because the defense is weak, so they throw a lot. You like that for fantasy.
Goff has a rougher schedule finish as well. Many of the same issues as Seattle’s schedule PLUS a game with Chicago Week 11. Goff won’t kill you, but he may not crack the top 5 (6pts per pass TD), but might on volume…but not get into the top 3. At their core, the Rams want to run with Gurley.
-- The problem with the Rams’ game plan is that Todd Gurley (15-51-2, 3-6-0/5) is a fictional character. They keep using him like he’s Gurley 2017/early 2018 and he’s not close. They’ll never stop using him that way, so that should mean the Rams will continue to struggle and be forced into a lot of throws in 2nd-halves of games ahead.
It’s the West Coast Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan never looks totally great for long, especially early in games -- but puts up 300+ yard games almost every week now for the past two seasons. Garbage time is a wonderful thing.
Oh, and the magical Malcom Brown (1-3-0) getting touches and maybe being FF valuable…nope.
What I would expect to see soon, and it could really hurt Gurley for FF – the Rams realize they aren’t very good as-is, and when they go to change things – we start to see the Darrell Henderson as ‘their Kamara’ plan soon.
-- Even scarier for Gurley-talk…
You’d rather have Chris Carson (27-118-0, 1-5-1/2) than Todd Gurley for 2019 redraft right now. Pete Carroll is not quitting Carson until they hit a three-game losing streak…that will never come or be later in the season with the tough schedule and you get a lot of goodness now.
Carson doesn’t do a thing for me. A tough runner, he looks like -- because he’s too slow to be anything else so he tough guys his way to 0-7 yards on rushes and he’s hailed as something great. He’s capable/adequate. Chris Carson cannot hold a candle to Jordan Howard as a runner…and no one cares about Howard. Mike Davis is better than Chris Carson…and no one cares.
All that doesn’t matter. It’s a world that exists in my deranged head. The reality IS Carson is ‘the guy’ for Seattle and he’s not being taken over unless an injury hits, which is possible because he’s so slow and takes a ton of hits.
-- If you don’t have Kelce-Kittle-Waller-Engram-Ertz, and you don’t have Will Dissly (4-81-0/4) – you want to get after him this week while he didn’t have too explosive of a week.
I thought Dissly was going to be a nice/fringe TE1 a la old Jack Doyle that one season. The guy who was the best of the not-top 5 TEs. Not better than Austin Hooper option outside the top 5. Well, no…he’s now, arguably, the best not-top 5 TE out there.
His value has jumped, because his performance has warranted it…but just note – most people think this is a fraud kinda. Dissly’s not that good, his name is not that sexy, nor is the Seattle passing game held in high regard for fantasy. Dissly can be had if you have a plausible TE (Olsen, Howard, Graham off a nice week this week if it happens, etc. + ___ (your WR depth) to overtrade to get him. You’re not getting one of the top 5 TEs reasonably, but you MIGHT get Dissly. And Dissly might be about to jump into the top 5, especially non-PPR.
Some of you grabbed him off waivers when we were suggesting it a few weeks ago, but most of you were/are loaded at TE and didn’t need to worry. But those hurting at TE…Dissly MIGHT be achievable in a deal and one to get/bet on outside the top 5.
If you grabbed Dissly for the Waller BYE ahead or however you stashed him – I wouldn’t sell cheap if he was excess right now. Another nice week on Waller’s Week 6 BYE, then you might have to play your depth card and try to deal him hot. But don’t give him away – people are dying at TE. They see him as your #2 TE, a la many of you with Waller as your 2nd TE this season, and they think you’ll give him away. Screw ‘em. Make them PAY for it.
-- Like Gerald Everett (7-13-6-0/11)…
Claim Everett and trade him + a WR depth guy or whatever FOR Dissly or one of the other TEs if they had a bad week. You sell Everett hot/don’t trust it. Trust Dissly.
With Brandin Cooks down, if he misses a week…should be OK for Everett, but likely means more work for Josh Reynolds (1-12-0/1) as a WR3-4 type option.
-- Rookie Troy Reeder (13 tackles) filled in nicely for the hurt LBs this week. He might hang around and be something for IDP. I liked him as a sleeper prospect pre-NFL Draft and then liked his preseason work. He’s a tackler, a good effort guy with some athleticism. He might work if he bumps Bryce Hager (and he should).
-- The Rams-DST is dying. 55 points allowed to Tampa Bay at home Week 4. 30 points allowed here. They aren’t getting to the QB like they used to. They’re weak against the run. And Marcus Peters continues to be one of the biggest frauds in the NFL over the past 2-3-4 seasons.
I’d wait for a bit for a Rams-DST turn before trusting them again. Something is definitely not right here. Aaron Donald has 1.0 sack this season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
62 = Carson
12 = Penny
67 = Lockett
51 = Metcalf
23 = Ja Brown
17 = David Moore
17 = M Turner
67 = Gurley
03 = M Brown
58 = Everett
40 = Higbee