2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 7 – Cowboys 37, Eagles 10
Nothing cute to write here…this game was over before it started, essentially. The Eagles had the ball first, fumble…setting up a short field TD drive for Dallas. Next Eagles drive, down 7-0, another fumble leaving Dallas in the red zone…another TD. It was 14-0 Dallas less than 7 minutes into the game…and the momentum at Dallas got away. You could see the pending loss on the Eagles’ faces in the 2nd-quarter. It was just not meant to be – Dallas got the early gifts and just outplayed them wire-to-wire.
Huge win for Dallas, as they jump to 4-3 and the NFC East lead. The problem is…a brutal schedule lies ahead. Dallas is at Philly Week 16, and we project the Eagles will be 8-6 heading into that game. We project the currently 3-4 Eagles to enter that game 8-6 as well – Week 16 will determine the NFC East…and it’s at Philly.
The Eagles need secondary help desperately, so what we don’t know is…whether they land a top corner the next few days before the trade deadline. The Eagles may be a better team/defense ahead. If the Eagles land Chris Harris from Denver…I say they win the NFC East at the very end. If no real sweet CB deal for Philly…they don’t win the NFC East or make the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Another week, another Jordan Howard (11-50-0, 2-6-0/2) as lead RB event. The Eagles came out running behind JoHo and he was chipping away but then the Carson Wentz fumbles began, and the game script changed and with the passing game comeback attempt, the Eagles went with more Miles Sanders (6-21-0, 3-11-0/3) in the heavier passing game set up.
If the Eagles could’ve controlled this game/not turned the ball over so much…we might have seen a 20+ carry, 100+ yard rushing effort from Howard. Instead, we got an FF-dud.
Rugged schedule for Howard the next 4 weeks, and then a beautiful one Weeks 12-16.
-- Four weeks in a row now that Dallas Goedert (4-69-1/4) has played 60-75% of the offensive snaps…and about 70-80% of what Ertz plays…a lot of two TE sets. This is a departure from previous plans/usage of Goedert.
Not only is Goedert playing more, but he seems like the TE Carson Wentz is moving to now…not Zach Ertz (2-38-0/5).
Over the last 4 games…
3.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 36.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = Goedert
4.5 rec. (7.0 targets), 53.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Ertz
The last two games Goedert has Ertz beat in every category of output.
On the season, 7 games, Ertz has 1 TD…Goedert 2 TDs.
I think the Eagles would trade Ertz and make Goedert ‘the guy’, but no one wants an expensive, overrated Ertz. They all want Goedert.
The Eagles would want to trade Ertz to the AFC…but only the AFC’s Patriots needs/wants a TE, and the Eagles likely don’t want to deal Ertz there either. GB-NO-SEA would be interested…but why would PHI want to help them in the NFC? They may have no choice.
In the end, I don’t think anyone really wants Ertz and his $13M+ due next season deal. And the Eagles don’t want to trade Goedert. We’ll see by next Tuesday.
-- The loudmouth media are the first to call QBs busts and dead…when it’s a guy they don’t like – Goff, Cousins, Trubisky, etc. But when it’s THEIR guy…they go silent.
Carson Wentz (16-26 for 191 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) just lost a big game to the better QB Dak Prescott…making Wentz 8-10 in his last 18 starts (his last two seasons of play).
Seven games this season, under 235 yards passing in 4 of those games. He’s been under 200 yards passing three of the last 4 games and completing 59.2% of his passes since Week 2.
Something is wrong here.
Will the national analysts kill him like they did Kirk Cousins a month ago? Nope. It’s all the Eagles’ secondary group’s fault.
The schedule is brutal from here the next 4 weeks…@BUF, CHI, BYE, NE. Then its great…SEA, @MIA, NYG, @WAS the next 4 weeks after that.
Wentz and Alshon Jeffrey (2-38-0/5) have been at the top of our ‘sell highs’ lists for a few weeks now…and it’s getting so bad you can’t get the ‘high’ part anymore.
-- Dak Prescott (21-27 for 239 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-30-1) has a lot of the same schedule issues ahead. Weeks 10-15 are rough. MIN, @DET…and then brutal with @NE, BUF, @CHI, LAR.
Weeks 1-3…Dak was the #3 FF QB in PPG on the season, Wentz #8.
Weeks 4-7…Dak #11, Wentz #20.
I don’t know if either is a QB1 for the ROS based on their schedules. Dak is more likely to pull it off because he can run for points better than Wentz.
-- Michael Gallup (3-34-0/4) has struggled since his return from injury. Sometimes those things can take 2-4 weeks before the player is truly 100%. Gallup may get fully up to speed about the time the schedule turns nasty.
The Weeks 12-15 stretch has two of those games in cold weather country on top of everything else…at NE Week 12, at CHI Week 14.
-- Nate Gerry (11 tackles) played 100% of the snaps here in the first game after ILB Zach Brown was released. He seems to be the man for now. 8.5 tackles per game the last two games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Sanders
23 = Howard
08 = Scott
53 = Witten
34 = Jarwin
33 = Cobb
14 = Austin
49 = Ertz
36 = Goedert