2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 8 – 49ers 51, Panthers 13
Yes, it was this bad. No way to sugarcoat it. It started out bad and then it accelerated, and the Panthers just went through the motions trying to get out of there in the 2nd-half. My impression – the players just knew the 49ers were superior, whether this day or any day, and they rolled over.
It will be interesting to see how the Panthers react to this. It’s not fun getting a full dose of reality – a reality that they could never beat the 49ers, so then what’s the point of the season? Or…will they take umbrage and go treat Tennessee as a punching bag this week to reestablish themselves?
We see the Panthers with 9-10 wins with Kyle Allen, and 7-8 wins if they turn back to Cam Newton ahead.
The 49ers are far more impressive looking a team, to me, than the Patriots. If I had to bet money, I’d likely bet on Belichick-Brady…but judging the art so far, hard not to go 49ers at this point. Intimidating defense and solid offense – and offense that just beat a solid defense despite missing their two best O-Linemen. We see 13-15 wins for the 49ers and quite the showdown Week 14 at New Orleans.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You probably have plenty of WRs, so no need to worry about this too much…but you might have seen Curtis Samuel (4-46-0/11) bounce from roster to waivers and back again the last few weeks.
He’s questionable this week with a shoulder, so keep an eye on that…but here’s why I have a renewed interest in Samuel for WR depth this 2nd-half…depending upon what WRs I already have…
1) I’m watching these games and it is clear Kyle Allen is trying to work Samuel as his #1 guy. I can see he knows the difference between Samuel and D.J. Moore. Moore is useful, Samuel is the critical throw, playmaker option.
Allen is throwing a ton of medium and deep balls to Samuel…and they are just missing. Maybe they never connect ever, but the intent is noteworthy. He is the Kyle Allen #1 WR.
2) The schedule is turning in Samuel’s favor…
The Panthers’ final three road games are in domes/on turf (NO, ATL, IND)…when the weather turns, Samuel will be inside or at normally fine weather Carolina.
I’m not saying a WR1 is about to appear, but a useful WR2 with spikes on his long-distance TD ability is lurking. Samuel is a WR2 with upside because he has the talent of a #1 WR…but this offense is very CMC-centric, so hard to get hopes too high.
-- Tevin Coleman (11-105-3, 2-13-1/2) had the obvious great day and he looked great, but a lot of luck went into this day.
George Kittle (6-86-0/7) lost another TD to a B.S. penalty, and then Coleman scored soon after. Kittle was later on his way for TD near the goal line but got P.I.’d…setting up a 1-yard score for Tevin right after.
Tevin is fine, looks great…but as is the case with any 3-4 TD days…some luck involved. Hell, Matt Breida started this game!
With Breida, Mostert, and Wilson all banged up…you might actually get A LOT of Tevin on TNF this week, and that WILL be great.
-- This Carolina-DST took a big punch in the mouth but some of it driven by their offense getting shutdown and then rolling over as the blowout unfolded. It’s still a top tier sack defense with solid metrics except they are weak against the run.
The Titans will be the most favorable matchup they’ve had all season – because of Ryan Tannehill mostly. The fear would be Derrick Henry exposes this run defense like the 49ers exploited. They can overplay the run vs. the Titans as most defenses do and dare Tannehill to beat them.
Carolina is an alternative for those with just the Jets-DST going into this week…if you’re getting nervous about all the bluster from NYJ – the Jamal Adams trade stuff, etc. There’s a lot of chaos in New York right now…however, Miami is dreadful in all aspects – horrible O-Line, no run game, no defense. Tennessee is able to put up more of a fight, in theory…but will the Jets quit on Adam Gase/NYJ?
But if you don’t like all the chatter from the Jets players, and fear a mutiny, etc. – you’re not crazy to bail. I’d rather go with the Browns now and forward considering the lunacy in NYJ, but I still think this easy schedule and beating Miami up can cure a lot of dysfunction – and Gregg Williams will not stand for any BS, and he seems to have that defense’s attention.
I see both sides of hope and fear of the Jets or Panthers’ play for a Week 9 DST.
The Panthers have been sacking and playing well, pre-Week 8 (and Tennessee is the 2nd-most sacked team in the league)…but the CAR-DST also gives up points and garbage time stuff way too easy (26+ points allowed in each of their last three games).
-- Carolina DE Bruce Irvin (5 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 TFLs) is back from the dead. He missed the first 3 weeks with injury but has 3.5 sacks in his 4 games upon return. 4 TFLs, 5 QB hits as well with 3.0 tackles per game – and classified as a DE with Carolina.
-- Someone asked me if I thought the Cardinals, in retrospect should have drafted Nick Bosa (4 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 PD) over Kyler Murray. It’s a debated question these days on talk shows. It’s an interesting one.
If I were an NFL GM, the first thing I’d pursue is trading my #1 pick for more picks…a bunch of 2s and 3s and 4s over current and future years. The NFL Drafts of late has pretty well proven that there is talent all over the draft…and the more cost-efficient talent is available after pick #20 or so in the NFL Draft – which is why the Patriots have another advantage in all this.
But if I had to choose…I’d go with the QB over any other position anytime. Kyler changes games and can sell tickets, worst case. Nick Bosa is great, but I think you can find franchise DEs throughout a draft easier than you can find franchise QBs. And if I’m investing the heavy payroll down the line…5th-year options, franchise tags, etc. – you spend on a franchise QB not a DE, in general, in my book.
My 2 cents.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Emm Sanders
47 = Deebo
32 = Bourne
20 = Pettis
15 = James
32 = Tevin
19 = Breida
14 = Mostert
03 = Wilson