2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 8 – Eagles 31, Bills 13
Weird game here. It seems like the Eagles really blew out/controlled/dominated the Bills, and they were definitely the better team here, but it was 7-3 Buffalo after the 1st-quarter. 11-7 Philly at the half, after the Bills missed a field goal at the buzzer. Eagles scored right out of the half to go up 17-7. The Bills answered back with a TD immediately…just 17-14 Eagles halfway through the 3rd-quarter.
Between the rain, more Josh Allen struggles, the inability to run the ball like Philly was…it just wasn’t the Bills day. Whooped at home by 18, but it wasn’t that overmatched.
The Eagles stop the bleeding of a two-game losing streak and that bad loss to Dallas. They are back at 4-4 and face a Bears team this week that is in the same do-or-die moment the Eagles were this game. Assuming the Eagles lose two of their next 3 games (CHI-NE-SEA…albeit all at home), they will be 5-6 heading into a favorable stretch to win three in-a-row and would host Dallas Week 16 with an 8-6 record…a game for the division, potentially. I don’t think the Eagles have the juice this year, but Jason Garrett can do strange things in Dallas. I’ll say Philly ends up 9-7…which might win the division, or get a wild card, or be just out of the playoffs. The Eagles season is teetering on the edge almost every week right now.
Buffalo falls to 5-2, and their charitable schedule should get them to 8-3 ahead before they run into some schedule trouble and fall to 8-7, trying to finish 9-7 in the end. We project 9 wins, but 8 or 10 wins are not out of the question. The schedule wants them to finish with 9-10 wins and a wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Hard to predict what is happening with Devin Singletary (3-19-0, 4-30-0/6). In this game, the game script was thrown off by the Bills playing catch up a lot…normally they are in control this season. Singletary was the 3rd-down back only most drives when the game was close. As things started to get away, Singletary played more snaps and saw more targets. He caught a little screen pass and ran 26 yards, impressively, for a TD to keep his team in the game in the 3rd-quarter.
It seems to me like the Bills offense just works better with three downs of Singletary, but old school coaches and old school RBs…hard to separate them. Only more losses will do the trick…and more losses aren’t happening with their schedule for the next few weeks. However, if they blowout some of the easy teams (WAS and MIA) ahead, maybe Singletary gets extra work to matter as an RB3 that way.
-- This is how the Eagles want to win…get a lead and run Jordan Howard (23-96-1, 1-15-0/2). JoHo took 23 carries and played 73% of the snaps. He’s the big dog…unless the Eagles fall behind and have to hurry up offense back in.
Howard has 6 TDs this season…5 of them in victories, 1 of them in defeats.
Howard has at least 1 TD in four of his last 6 games.
Revenge game vs. CHI this week, maybe?
-- Tyler Kroft (2-32-0/4) put Dawson Knox (0-0-0/0) back in his place, I guess. Kroft is healthy now and took the lead role at TE this game. Meaningless for FF, because Kroft is nothing and Josh Allen isn’t making any receivers great.
-- Four of his last 5 games, Carson Wentz (17-24 for 172 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is under 200 yards passing in a game. Where are all the ‘Wentz is the greatest’ analysts now? They only remind you how much they love ___ when ___ had a great last week. When ___ is running cold, they just decide not to talk about ___.
It’s a con job, a shell game, a film-flam operation being sold to us as ‘analysis’.
Psychics have to look at national football analysts and marvel at the con they’re pulling/the sway they have over their audience. How long before I have to call a 1-900 number from a late-night TV ad to get Adam Schefter or Michael Irvin hot take info? They are Dionne Warwick’s favorite football analysts; she knew I was going to say that!
Nothing like timely Dionne Warwick and 1-900 references.
-- Dallas Goedert (3-22-1/5) vs. Zach Ertz (2-20-0/4) the last 5 games…
6.9 FF PPG/9.9 PPR on 3.0 rec. (4.6 targets), 33.2 yards, 0.60 TDs, 45.4 snaps per game = Goedert
5.9 FF PPG/9.9 PPR on 4.0 rec. (6.6 targets), 46.8 yards, 0.20 TDs, 53.6 snaps per game = Ertz
They are working about an even split the last five games with Goedert outscoring Ertz for FF mostly.
-- Time to worry about the Bills-DST? 31 points allowed here…21 allowed to Miami the week prior. A concern? Maybe.
All I know is this…against Dwayne Haskins this week…play of the year. We’ll see after that. They look fine to me, not world beaters but a top 10 unit with good matchups up to Week 12, then you have to bail.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Singletary
18 = Gore
36 = Kroft
28 = Knox
66 = Ertz
55 = Goedert
53 = J Howard
13 = Sanders
09 = Scott