2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 8 – Rams 24, Bengals 10
I was thinking the following after I re-watched this game and re-looked over the Rams schedule so far…
The Rams have really disappointed in about every game this season. They really are not that good. They should’ve lost to the Brown earlier this season. Then they lost three in-a-row to TB-SEA-SF. They luckily got ATL and CIN on the schedule the last two weeks to break their fall. They really didn’t beat the Falcons as badly as it seemed…the scuffled for a while with an inferior team. Ditto here.
This game was tied 3-3 a few minutes into the 2nd-quarter. It was then 10-10 before the Rams scored right before the half for a 17-10 lead. The Rams only scored one TD in the 2nd-half, but held off Cincy who was in the red zone late trying to score to cut the lead to one score with an onside kick chance to tie/win, but Cincy couldn’t score…and the Rams covered the 10-point spread, but were very lucky to.
Just another ‘meh’ game by the Rams, who are now 5-3. We see 9 wins by the end of the season, but 8 is not out of the question…nor is 10 wins – 10 max. The Rams needed more defensive help at the trade deadline, they didn’t get any.
Cincy falls to 0-8 and Andy Dalton is disappointed the team is turning to Ryan Finley. Really, Andy? With Finley, I think the Bengals will win a game or two – I wouldn’t be surprised if that first win is against Baltimore next week. We will talk about Finley in a moment.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Really interesting Darrell Henderson (11-49-0, 2-20-0/3) usage/game script this week, again…
1st-series = All Gurley (field goal)
2nd-series = Henderson started and was in for seven plays of the 9-play drive (ending in a Rams’ TD)
3rd-series = Henderson starter and was in for all 3 plays (TD)
4th-series = All Gurley
First half…close game…about an even split starting a given series and snaps/touches.
5th-series = All Gurley (TD)
6th-series = All Henderson
…and the Rams never scored again but had good control and Henderson-Gurley went in-and-out.
Gurley 32 snaps, Henderson 28
Gurley 11 touch opportunities (10 carries, 1 target), Henderson 14 (11 carries, 3 targets)
Just looking at the box score, you might think that it was a typical Gurley as lead and then the Rams got up and let Henderson have a run later. It was pretty much 50-50 all game and the Rams never really dominated or ran away here.
I’m not saying Henderson is taking over…just noting that the vaunted ‘split’ or ‘managed touches’ for Gurley – it’s starting to happen in the last two weeks. Henderson is playing well enough to allow the Rams to mix them up with confidence. With that – Henderson has RB3 hopes with upside through the heavy BYE weeks ahead.
-- Hate Jared Goff (17-31 for 372 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) if you want…but 370+ yards passing in three of his last 5 games. 2 TDs passes in a game in four of his last 6 games.
Like I’ve been saying…”New Matt Ryan (for fantasy).”
It’s not always pretty for the team but the numbers are working for fantasy. Less than 60% Comp. Pct. in every game his last 4 games…very odd for a McVay offense. Part of this is – the O-Line is not good.
-- We’re unsure if Brandin Cooks (left early w injury) will be cleared from his concussion for Week 10, but Cooks has been mounting up the concussions over the years and his performance numbers have been slipping over time as well. He’s getting to be quite risky and is droppable in many leagues where WR talent in abundant.
Cooks has 1 TD this season and was averaging less than 4 catches a game coming into this left-early event. During the BYE week, you would not have been crazy to walk away for some gamble player or stable waiver WR option. Danny Amendola has my interest (PPR) more than Cooks right now. Alex Erickson might be a better play in PPR.
Non-PPR? Cooks has 1 TD!!! Phillip Dorsett or Diontae Johnson or Curtis Samuel are way better/more promising.
-- I didn’t re-watch many snaps from the Bengals this week, because with a QB change…who cares what things looked like under Andy Dalton? He gone. On to Ryan Finley.
In lieu of looking at Joe Mixon (17-66-0, 4-11-1/4) runs to nowhere for another week (thanks, O-Line), I went back and watched some Finley preseason work to get refamiliarized. Actually, I already knew all about Finley…I was really looking at who he seemed comfortable throwing to this preseason.
It was Damion Willis…and he’s not there.
He didn’t look bad with Alex Erickson (6-97-0/7) and Auden Tate (5-65-0/13). Hard to predict where Finley will go to because he’s just now getting 1st-team work and who knows if A.J. Green will ever play/disrupt things, but I’d think it’s a positive sign for Erickson-Tate and a small downgrade for Tyler Boyd (6-65-0/9)…but I’m not betting my life on it.
Erickson is averaging 6.0 rec. (9.0 targets) and 93.7 yards per game the last 3 games – you can’t sneeze at that. He’s a talented Edelman-a-like…in a league that rarely makes Edelman-a-likes go for more than 2-3 games at a time before they disappear for 2-3-4-5 weeks after.
…and Ryan Finley is really good. Probably better than Andy Dalton in this era…you know, how like the new age rookie QBs all come in and burn the NFL right away because they are so polished and experienced throwing the ball.
It comes down to fear…and I always thought Daniel Jones played afraid against better competition, but Ryan Finley not as panicky in big spots. You’re going to see Finley work and wonder “Why didn’t the Bengals do this sooner?” and the world should ask “Why did NYG take Daniel Jones so highly when an obvious better QB was in the same conference, playing the same teams, only playing better/looking better doing it?”
I can answer it for you…
Finley didn’t have a Manning family member up his ass/in his pocket to promote him pre-Draft.
I don’t think Finley is a future ‘great’ but I can see future ‘good’. Not as good as Minshew, but nowhere near as bad as Daniel Jones.
-- The Rams have allowed 10 points in each of their last two games since acquiring Jalen Ramsey (7 tackles). They also played ATL and CIN, so it’s ahrd to say how great things are.
The Rams have good matchups the next two weeks and then six weeks of not so good. I wouldn’t want to rely on this D for my fantasy stretch run, but you get two looks at them vs. PIT and CHI and can decide whether to roll on with them for BAL-ARI-SEA-DAL-SF-ARI Weeks 12-17.
Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Gurley
28 = D Henderson
78 = Tate
72 = Boyd
49 = Erickson
14 = Stanley Morgan
57 = Eifert
45 = Uzomah
07 = Sample